In the run-up to the 2026 Senedd election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Senedd election, held on 6 May 2021, to the next election, to be held on 7 May 2026.

Contents

• Opinion polling
• Polling using the 2026 electoral system
• Past opinion polling
• Seat projections
• See also
• Notes
• References

It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the first election following current reforms to the voting system, which increases the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopts a party-list voting system, reduces the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortens its term from five years to four. ^{[1] [2]} However the 23 October 2025 Caerphilly by-election where 33,689 votes were cast used first-past-the-post voting.

Opinion polling

Polling using the 2026 electoral system

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation. ^{[3] [4]}

Considering the polls from less than one year before the election, there have been 12 polls. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have both led in 5 and were tied in one of them, and Labour has led in 1. Of the polls with a sample size of 1,000 people or more, there have been 5, with Plaid leading in 4 of them, with Reform UK leading in 1.

  Sample size below 1,000. ^[a]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	Others	Lead
15 Feb – 3 March 2026	More in Common	N/A	851	20%	10%	26%	10%	7%	26%	1%	Tie
30 Jan – 10 Feb 2026	More in Common	N/A	806	20%	13%	24%	5%	6%	31%	1%	7
19 Jan – 8 Feb 2026	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	486	20%	10%	29%	7%	5%	27%	1%	2
5 – 12 Jan 2026	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University	1,220	10%	10%	37%	13%	5%	23%	2%	14
16 Dec 2025 – 4 Jan 2026	FindOutNow	N/A	1,503	12%	12%	30%	9%	7%	29%	2%	1
28 Nov – 10 Dec 2025	YouGov	Cardiff University	1,891	10%	10%	33%	9%	6%	30%	2%	3
10–30 Nov2025	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	505	21%	12%	26%	9%	3%	27%	1%	1
23 Oct2025	2025 Caerphilly by-election, Plaid Cymru gain from Labour
22 Sep–12 Oct2025	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	533	23%	11%	22%	9%	4%	30%	2%	7
4–10 Sep2025	YouGov	Barn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University	1,232	14%	11%	30%	6%	6%	29%	4%	1
18 Jun–3 Jul2025	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	400	27%	13%	21%	6%	5%	25%	2%	2
18 Jun–3 Jul2025	More in Common	Sky News	883	23%	10%	26%	4%	7%	28%	2%	2
5–16 Jun2025	FindOutNow	N/A	2,101	18%	11%	27%	7%	7%	29%	1%	2
23–30 Apr2025	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University	1,265	18%	13%	30%	5%	7%	25%	2%	5
10 Mar–3 Apr2025	Survation	N/A	809	27%	15%	24%	5%	5%	24%	1%	3
3–23 Mar2025	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	1,000	27%	16%	24%	5%	4%	23%	1%	3
25–29 Nov2024	YouGov [6]	Barn Cymru	1,121	23%	19%	24%	6%	5%	23%	1%	1
4–24 Nov2024	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	500	27%	18%	17%	6%	6%	24%	2%	3
18 Oct–4 Nov2024	Survation [s 1]	Reform UK	2,006	29%	18%	20%	7%	7%	19%	1%	9
24 Jul–6 Aug2024	Eluned Morgan is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales [7]
5–18 Jul2024	Welsh Election Study	N/A	2,565	25%	16%	24%	6%	6%	16%	8% AWA on 7% Other on 1%	1
4 Jul2024	2024 United Kingdom general election
27 Jun–1 Jul2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,072	27%	18%	23%	5%	6%	18%	3%	4
5–7 Jun2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	960	36%	22%	18%	6%	6%	11%	2% AWA on 2% Other on 0%	14
30 May–3 Jun2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,066	30%	19%	23%	6%	6%	12%	4%	7
18–19 May2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	900	37%	20%	20%	5%	3%	10%	5% AWA on 5% Other on 0%	17
8 May2024	The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election (regional) [8]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	1.1%	8.2%	11.1
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election (constituency) [8]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	1.6%	4.9%	1.6%	5.6%	13.8

Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

  Sample size below 1,000. ^[a]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	AWA	UKIP	Reform	Others	Lead
24 Jun2024	The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	33%	18%	19%	6%	7%	5%	–	12%	1%	14
23–24 Mar2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	32%	16%	18%	9%	7%	6%	–	11%	1%	14
16–20 Mar2024	Vaughan Gething is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales [9]
18 Feb2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	29%	16%	25%	4%	8%	7%	–	10%	1%	4
24–26 Jan2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	34%	19%	21%	6%	6%	6%	–	7%	1%	13
10–11 Dec2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	28%	20%	24%	7%	8%	4%	–	7%	1%	4
12–13 Nov2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	32%	21%	18%	9%	6%	5%	–	7%	1%	11
14–15 Oct2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	31%	21%	24%	4%	5%	7%	–	8%	0%	10
16–17 Sep2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	35%	21%	18%	6%	12%	2%	–	5%	1%	14
1–6 Sep2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	34%	16%	20%	6%	6%	9%	1%	6%	2%	14
13–14 Aug2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	31%	19%	22%	6%	10%	–	–	10%	3%	9
14–16 Jul2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	33%	20%	19%	6%	10%	–	–	6%	4%	13
17–18 Jun2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	22%	20%	6%	9%	–	–	8%	4%	8
16 Jun2023	Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected leader of Plaid Cymru
12–17 May2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	36%	16%	18%	7%	7%	5%	1%	7%	1%	18
14–15 May2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	30%	21%	24%	4%	10%	–	–	8%	4%	6
15–17 Apr2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	32%	22%	23%	7%	8%	–	–	7%	2%	9
3–7 Feb2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	39%	18%	20%	5%	5%	6%	–	6%	2%	19
25 Nov–1 Dec2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	38%	16%	23%	5%	2%	8%	2%	4%	2% Gwlad 1% Other 1%	15
20–22 Sep2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	37%	18%	21%	5%	5%	7%	2%	4%	1%	16
12–16 Jun2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	31%	21%	24%	6%	5%	6%	2%	6%	2% Gwlad 1% Other 1%	7
25 Feb–1 Mar2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	34%	23%	20%	4%	6%	6%	1%	3%	2% Gwlad 1% Other 1%	11
13–16 Dec2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	35%	22%	19%	7%	3%	6%	2%	5%	1%	13
13–16 Sep2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	33%	26%	19%	5%	4%	6%	4%	2%	1%	7
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election [8]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	3.7%	1.6%	1.1%	2.9%	11.1

By section

Date conducted	Pollster	Client	Subsection	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	Lead
November 2024	Beaufort Research [10]	Nation.Cymru	South West Wales and the Valleys	1000 (500)	28	13	19	4	6	27	1
			Cardiff and South East Wales		34	23	10	6	8	16	11
			North and Mid Wales		21	18	24	8	4	24	Tie
			Male voters		28	20	10	6	7	27	1
			Female voters		27	15	26	6	5	20	1
			Aged 16-34		37	9	21	9	7	17	16
			Aged 34-54		32	15	21	4	8	19	11
			Aged over 55		21	22	15	6	5	29	7
			ABC1		28	23	18	7	6	15	5
			C2DE		26	11	17	5	6	34	8
			Welsh speakers		24	16	31	5	6	17	7
			Non-Welsh speakers		29	18	13	6	6	26	3

Constituency vote

  Sample size below 1,000. ^[a]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dems	AWA	Green	Reform	Other	Lead
8 May2024	The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	37%	21%	22%	4%	3%	3%	10%	0%	15
23–24 Mar2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	36%	21%	21%	3%	3%	3%	11%	1%	15
16–20 Mar2024	Vaughan Gething is elected leader of Welsh Labour and becomes First Minister of Wales [9]
18 Feb2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	34%	21%	19%	6%	4%	3%	13%	0%	13
24–26 Jan2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	39%	25%	18%	3%	3%	4%	9%	1%	14
10–11 Dec2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	41%	22%	17%	7%	3%	3%	7%	0%	19
12–13 Nov2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	40%	23%	18%	3%	3%	4%	7%	0%	17
14–15 Oct2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	37%	27%	18%	4%	5%	3%	6%	0%	10
16–17 Sep2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	39%	27%	18%	5%	1%	6%	3%	1%	12
1–6 Sep2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	41%	18%	19%	6%	–	4%	8%	7%	22
13–14 Aug2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	37%	21%	20%	6%	–	3%	9%	4%	16
14–16 Jul2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	42%	22%	16%	6%	–	3%	7%	3%	20
17–18 Jun2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	36%	22%	19%	7%	–	3%	10%	3%	14
16 Jun2023	Rhun ap Iorwerth is elected leader of Plaid Cymru
12–17 May2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	40%	18%	17%	7%	–	5%	8%	4%	22
14–15 May2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	38%	23%	20%	7%	–	3%	7%	2%	15
15–17 Apr2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	41%	21%	20%	5%	–	4%	8%	2%	20
3–7 Feb2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	43%	18%	20%	4%	–	4%	9%	1%	23
25 Nov–1 Dec2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	44%	17%	20%	6%	–	3%	7%	4%	24
20–22 Sep2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	40%	20%	22%	6%	–	3%	5%	4%	18
12–16 Jun2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	37%	24%	21%	6%	–	5%	5%	3%	13
25 Feb–1 Mar2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	38%	24%	21%	6%	–	3%	5%	4%	14
13–16 Dec2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	40%	23%	17%	4%	–	5%	7%	4%	17
13–16 Sep2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	37%	27%	19%	5%	–	4%	5%	5%	10
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election [8]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	4.9%	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	5.6%	13.8

Seat projections

Ahead of the election, various modelling efforts have produced seat projections for the next Senedd election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.

See also

• List of political parties in Wales
• Opinion polling on Welsh independence
• Polling in Wales for 2024 United Kingdom general election
• Polling in Wales for the next United Kingdom general election

Notes

References