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2026 United States Senate special election in Florida

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2026 United States Senate special election in Florida
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November 3, 2026
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Ashley Moody [a]
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida is expected to be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida, to finish the last two years of former Republican Senator Marco Rubio's term, who resigned his seat to become United States secretary of state in President Donald Trump's second administration. [1] The primary election will be held August 18, 2026.

Contents

According to Florida law, if a U.S. Senate seat becomes vacant, the governor has authority to appoint a temporary replacement until the next general election. The appointee holds the position until the vacancy is filled by a special election during the next general election cycle, which, in this case, is scheduled for November 3, 2026. [2] Governor Ron DeSantis chose Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody to replace Rubio. [3] She is running in the special election to complete the term.

This will be the first U.S. Senate special election in Florida since 1936.

Interim appointment

Appointee

Considered but not appointed

Declined to be considered

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Alix Toulme, religion founder and perennial candidate [9]

Declined

Endorsements

Ashley Moody
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Multi-county officials
  • 15 state attorneys [17]
County officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jake Lang (R)$31,334$27,276$4,058
Ashley Moody (R)$5,795,699$698,880$5,096,819
Source: Federal Election Commission [25]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Paul Ron Cruz, defense contractor and veteran [32]
  • Frank Dimola [33]
  • Kael Dougherty, computer programmer [34]
  • Evelyn McBride, life coach [35]
  • Dennis Stevens [36]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Hector Mujica
U.S. representatives
Alexander Vindman
Local officials
  • Jennifer Jenkins, former Brevard County school board member and former candidate for this seat [37]
Individuals
Organizations
Jennifer Jenkins (withdrawn)
U.S. representatives
State legislators

Fundraising

Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Joey Atkins (D)$6,193$5,378$814
Alan Grayson (D)$137,892$138,795$126,014
Tamika Lyles (D)$22,877$3,048$19,828
Hector Mujica (D)$463,668$310,124$153,544
Angie Nixon (D)$97,680$2,649$95,031
Source: Federal Election Commission [25]

Independents

Declined

Third parties

American Party

Filed paperwork

  • Jason Standridge, substance abuse counselor [46]

Veterans Party

Filed paperwork

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [48] Solid RJanuary 12, 2026
The Cook Political Report [49] Solid RJanuary 12, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball [50] Likely RJanuary 29, 2026
Race To The WH [51] Lean RFebruary 2, 2026

Polling

Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Ashley
Moody (R)		Angie
Nixon (D)		OtherUndecided
Emerson College [52] March 29–31, 20261,125 (LV)± 2.8%47%36%–16%
University of North Florida [53] February 21 – March 2, 2026786 (LV)± 4.0%46%38%2%15%

Ashley Moody vs. Alexander Vindman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Ashley
Moody (R)		Alexander
Vindman (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [54] [A] April 2–3, 2026574 (RV)± 4.1%43%40%–17%
Emerson College [52] March 29–31, 20261,125 (LV)± 2.8%46%38%–16%
University of North Florida [53] February 21 – March 2, 2026786 (LV)± 4.0%45%38%2%15%
Hypothetical polling

Ashley Moody vs. Jennifer Jenkins

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Ashley
Moody (R)		Jennifer
Jenkins (D)		OtherUndecided
University of North Florida [55] October 15–25, 2025728 (LV)± 4.3%49% [c] 38%3% [d] 10%
47%37%3% [d] 13%
The Tyson Group (R) [56] [B] October 1–3, 2025800 (LV)–44%37%–19%

Ashley Moody vs. Hector Mujica

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Ashley
Moody (R)		Hector
Mujica (D)		OtherUndecided
Emerson College [52] March 29–31, 20261,125 (LV)± 2.8%45%38%–17%

Notes

  1. ↑ Marco Rubio, the three-term senator of Florida, was nominated by President Donald Trump to be the United States Secretary of State in his second cabinet. On January 20, 2025, he was confirmed by the Senate as Secretary of State and subsequently resigned his seat. Governor Ron DeSantis chose Ashley Moody to replace him.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. 1 2 "Someone else", "Wouldn't vote", and "Refusal" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll commissioned by Vindman's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Plymouth Union Public Advocacy

References

  1. ↑ Beggin, Riley. "Trump taps Marco Rubio for Secretary of State". USA TODAY . Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  2. ↑ "Chapter 100 Section 161 - 2024 Florida Statutes". m.flsenate.gov. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Dixon, Matt (January 16, 2025). "Ron DeSantis picks Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody to fill Rubio's Senate seat". NBC News . Retrieved January 16, 2025.
  4. 1 2 Ogles, Jacob (November 12, 2024). "Laurel Lee part of conversation for Marco Rubio's Senate seat". Florida Politics . Retrieved April 4, 2025.
  5. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (January 11, 2025). "'Absolutely not': Gov. DeSantis says he won't appoint himself to replace Marco Rubio in the Senate". Florida Politics . Retrieved January 11, 2025.
  6. ↑ "Lara Trump removes herself from consideration for Florida Senate, ending speculation". The Associated Press . December 22, 2024. Retrieved December 22, 2024– via WPDE-TV.
  7. ↑ DeLuca, Alex (March 12, 2025). "Meet the January 6 Rioter Running for Marco Rubio's U.S. Senate Seat". Miami New Times . Retrieved March 12, 2025.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Wilson, Drew (March 20, 2025). "Ashley Moody's Senate campaign touts clean sweep of GOP Sheriffs". Florida Politics . Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  9. ↑ "TOULME, ALIX CHRISTOPHER MR. JR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2025.
  10. ↑ Fineout, Gary; Leonard, Kimberly (July 11, 2025). "He was DeSantis' 'bulldog.' Will Trump help Florida's attorney general stick around?". Politico . Retrieved July 14, 2025.
  11. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (July 25, 2025). "Donald Trump endorses Ashley Moody's return to U.S. Senate". Florida Politics . Retrieved July 25, 2025.
  12. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (March 28, 2025). "Rick Scott endorses Ashley Moody in 2026 Senate race". Florida Politics . Retrieved March 28, 2025.
  13. ↑ https://x.com/AshleyMoodyFL/status/2011803163192344832
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Delegation for 8.12.25: Redder state — Chinese spyware — aquaculture — buses — Turkey". Florida Politics . August 12, 2025. Retrieved August 12, 2025.
  15. ↑ Leonard, Kimberly; Domínguez, Isa (April 22, 2025). "Donalds faces the anti-DOGE music". Politico . Retrieved April 22, 2025.
  16. ↑ Ogles, Jacob (April 4, 2025). "'An exceptional leader': Laurel Lee wants Ashley Moody to remain in the Senate". Florida Politics . Retrieved April 4, 2025.
  17. ↑ Ogles, Jacob (March 19, 2025). "Every Republican State Attorney in Florida endorses Ashley Moody's re-election to U.S. Senate". Florida Politics . Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  18. 1 2 Scheckner, Jesse (August 27, 2025). "Realtors back Ashley Moody for U.S. Senate, citing her 'critical support' of key issues". Florida Politics. Retrieved November 29, 2025.
  19. ↑ Dixon, Drew (August 14, 2025). "Ashley Moody builds strong re-election support with endorsement from Florida contractors". Florida Politics. Retrieved November 29, 2025.
  20. ↑ Schorsch, Peter (October 21, 2025). "Florida cops back Ashley Moody for U.S. Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved November 29, 2025.
  21. ↑ Ogles, Jacob (January 23, 2026). "Florida farmers sow support for Ashley Moody". Florida Politics. Retrieved January 24, 2026.
  22. ↑ "Maggie's List Announces First Round of 2026 Senate Endorsements". maggieslist.org. Maggie's List. March 3, 2025. Retrieved March 27, 2025.
  23. ↑ "Candidates". Senate Conservatives Fund. Retrieved November 29, 2025.
  24. ↑ Costeines, Michael (September 1, 2025). "Republican Party of Florida Formally Endorses Ashley Moody for Senate". The Floridian. Retrieved November 29, 2025.
  25. 1 2 "2026 Election United States Senate - Florida". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved February 6, 2026.
  26. ↑ Tsoukas, Alex (August 2025). "Laura Kelley Talks with Joey Mendoza Atkins on Young Men Leaving the Democratic Party". MSN. Retrieved October 30, 2025.
  27. ↑ "GOULD, CHARLES AKA ALEX A - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2025.
  28. ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1890144". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved May 13, 2025.
  29. ↑ Lemongello, Steven (April 24, 2025). "Alan Grayson jumps into Orlando state Senate race alongside Bracys". Orlando Sentinel . Retrieved July 14, 2025. Former congressman turned perennial candidate Alan Grayson
  30. ↑ Harvey, Malcolm (January 22, 2026). "Rep. Angie Nixon announces run for US Senate in Florida's 2026 midterm elections". First Coast News . Retrieved January 22, 2026.
  31. ↑ Perry, Mitch (January 27, 2026). "Whistleblower Alexander Vindman to seek Florida Democratic nomination for Senate". Florida Phoenix . Retrieved January 27, 2026.
  32. ↑ "CRUZ, PAUL RON - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2025.
  33. ↑ "DIMOLA, FRANK - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2025.
  34. ↑ "DOUGHERTY, KAEL - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2025.
  35. ↑ "MCBRIDE, EVELYN JANE'-MARIE DR - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019.
  36. ↑ "STEVENS, DENNIS GENE MR - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2025.
  37. 1 2 Perry, Mitch (January 29, 2026). "Jennifer Jenkins drops out of the Democratic Senate race and endorses Alexander Vindman". Florida Phoenix . Retrieved January 29, 2026.
  38. ↑ "Campaign Documents - Florida Department of State". dos.elections.myflorida.com. Retrieved May 25, 2025.
  39. ↑ Scheckner, Jesse (April 2, 2026). "Hector Mujica enters CD 28 race, setting up potentially competitive challenge to Carlos Giménez". Floridapolitics.com. Retrieved April 2, 2026.
  40. ↑ Ogles, Jacob (July 31, 2025). "Josh Weil drops out of U.S. Senate race against Ashley Moody". Florida Politics . Retrieved July 31, 2025.
  41. ↑ Leonard, Kimberly (August 5, 2025). "Jerry Demings floats trial balloon". Politico . Retrieved August 12, 2025.
  42. ↑ Williams, Kylie; Leonard, Kimberly (January 26, 2026). "Florida's commercial space race". Politico . Retrieved January 26, 2026.
  43. 1 2 Leonard, Kimberly; Williams, Kylie (February 10, 2026). "Vindman kicks off in Broward". Politico . Retrieved February 10, 2026.
  44. 1 2 Ogles, Jacob (August 6, 2025). "Jennifer Jenkins brings on campaign team as Florida Democrats rally around potential Senate bid". Florida Politics . Retrieved August 12, 2025.
  45. ↑ Perano, Ursula; Diaz, Daniella (April 23, 2025). "Do Democrats Even Believe They Can Win Senate Seats in Florida and Texas?". NOTUS . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  46. ↑ "STANDRIDGE, JASON CLYDE MR. - Candidate overview - FEC.gov". FEC.gov. January 2019. Retrieved June 1, 2025.
  47. ↑ "GREEN, JUSTIN MR - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 2019. Retrieved June 1, 2025.
  48. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  49. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  50. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  51. ↑ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
  52. 1 2 3 "Florida 2026 Poll: Donalds Leads GOP Primary for Governor, Republicans Outpace Democrats in Florida Elections Florida 2026 Poll: Donalds Leads GOP Primary for Governor, Republicans Outpace Democrats in Florida Elections". Emerson College Polling. April 2, 2026. Retrieved April 2, 2026.
  53. 1 2 Man, Anthony (March 4, 2026). "Florida poll shows Republicans lead Democrats in statewide races — but only by single digits". Orlando Sentinel . Retrieved March 4, 2026.
  54. ↑ Ogles, Jacob (April 8, 2026). "Alex Vindman internal poll shows him within striking distance of Ashley Moody". Florida Politics . Retrieved April 8, 2026.
  55. ↑ "Potential Republicans lead Democrats in Florida midterm matchups" (PDF). University of North Florida . October 28, 2025. Retrieved October 28, 2025.
  56. ↑ "Moody's Position on the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Will Have Key Impact on Senate Race". Plymouth Union Public Advocacy. October 7, 2025. Retrieved October 9, 2025.
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