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2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

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2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
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November 3, 2026
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Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent Governor

Josh Shapiro
Democratic



The 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Pennsylvania. Primary elections will be held on May 19, 2026. [1] Incumbent Democratic governor Josh Shapiro announced in January 2026 that he would run for re-election to a second term. This will be one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2026 in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election.

Contents

Background

Pennsylvania is a purple state located in the Northeastern United States. A part of the Rust Belt, it was narrowly won by Republican Donald Trump in his non-consecutive second victory in 2024 after similarly narrow victories by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in his first election in 2016. [2] [3]

The state has a Democratic and Republican senator, making it one of only three states to have a split Senate delegation, [a] while Republicans hold a majority in the state's House delegation, with ten seats to the Democrats' seven. [5] Democrats also control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives while Republicans control the Pennsylvania Senate. [6]

Incumbent Democratic governor Josh Shapiro was first elected with 56.5% of the vote in 2022, succeeding term-limited Democrat Tom Wolf. [7]

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Declined

Endorsements

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Austin Davis
Political parties

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrawn
  • John Ventre, former Pennsylvania director for the Mutual UFO Network and perennial candidate (running for lieutenant governor) [14]
Declined

Endorsements

Stacy Garrity
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations
Political parties
Dan Meuser (declined)
Executive branch officials

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Stacy
Garrity		Doug
Mastriano		Dan
Meuser		Scott
Perry		Kristin
Phillips-Hill		OthersUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [37] September 18–19, 2025524 (V)± 4.3%20%39%––––41%
Public Policy Polling (D) [38] May 2025433 (LV)–18%39%6%–––37%
Pennsylvania Leadership Conference [39] April 8, 2024240 (V)–7%6%–4%3%1%79%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Brian Thomas, businessman [40]
  • John Ventre, former Pennsylvania director for the Mutual UFO Network and perennial candidate (previously ran for governor) [14]
  • Jason Richey, chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party and candidate for governor in 2022 [41]
Publicly expressed interest
Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Jason Richey
Statewide officials
State legislators
Political parties

Libertarian convention

Governor

Candidates

Declared

Constitution convention

Governor

Candidates

Declared

Lieutenant governor

Declared

  • Marty Selker, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024 [47]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [48] Likely DSeptember 11, 2025
Inside Elections [49] Likely DAugust 28, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [50] Likely DSeptember 4, 2025
Race to the WH [51] Safe DSeptember 30, 2025

Polling

Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Josh
Shapiro (D)		Stacy
Garrity (R)		Other/Undecided [c] Margin
Race to the WH [52] September 22, 2025 – February 23, 2026February 25, 202654.6%37.3%8.1%Shapiro +17.4%
RealClearPolitics [53] September 22, 2025 – March 1, 2026March 5, 202652.3%33.7%14.0%Shapiro +18.6%
Average54.6%36.9%8.5%Shapiro +17.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Shapiro (D)		Stacy
Garrity (R)		OtherUndecided
Franklin & Marshall College [54] February 18 – March 1, 2026834 (RV)± 4.1%48%28%7% [d] 17%
Quinnipiac University [55] February 19–23, 2026836 (RV)± 4.7%55%37%1% [e] 7%
Quinnipiac University [56] September 25–29, 20251,579 (RV)± 3.3%55%39%1%5%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [57] September 22–28, 2025700 (LV)± 3.7%54%36%–9%
Hypothetical polling

Josh Shapiro vs. Doug Mastriano

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Josh
Shapiro (D)		Doug
Mastriano (R)		Other/Undecided [f] Margin
Race to the WH [52] September 22–29, 2025November 24, 202555.3%38.4%6.3%Shapiro +16.9%
RealClearPolitics [58] September 22–29, 2025November 24, 202555.5%38.0%6.5%Shapiro +17.5%

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Shapiro (D)		Doug
Mastriano (R)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [56] September 25–29, 20251,579 (RV)± 3.3%56%39%–5%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [59] September 22–28, 2025704 (LV)± 3.7%55%37%–7%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ The other two are Maine, with an independent who caucuses with the Democrats and a Republican, and Wisconsin, with a Democrat and a Republican. [4]
  2. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 7%
  5. ↑ "Refused" with 1%
  6. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

  1. ↑ "2026 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. September 26, 2025. Retrieved September 27, 2025.
  2. ↑ "Revisit Pennsylvania election results from 2020 and 2016 ahead of Election Day 2024 - CBS News". www.cbsnews.com. November 4, 2024.
  3. ↑ "The 2024 presidential election was close, not a landslide". ABC News.
  4. ↑ 119th Congress Smashes Record Low for Number of Split US Senate Delegations, Smart Politics, November 19, 2024. Retrieved January 31, 2026
  5. ↑ "119th Congress Smashes Record Low for Number of Split US Senate Delegations". No. Smart Politics. November 19, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2025.
  6. ↑ "Democrats will again control Pennsylvania House after holding on to one-seat majority". Spotlight PA. November 8, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2025.
  7. ↑ Field, Nick (May 21, 2023). "Inside Josh Shapiro's 2022 landslide -- and what it means for 2024 | Analysis • Pennsylvania Capital-Star".
  8. ↑ Issac-Dovere, Edward (January 8, 2026). "Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro launches his reelection bid with bigger plans in mind". CNN . Retrieved January 8, 2026.
  9. ↑ Swartz, Katherine (December 31, 2024). "'The Feistiest I've Ever Seen Him': Inside Bob Casey's Final Days in the Senate". NOTUS . Retrieved December 31, 2024. Gov. Josh Shapiro is up for reelection in 2026, but if he runs for president over another term in Harrisburg, Casey said he's not interested in vying for the job
  10. ↑ "Jewish Dems Endorsed Candidates". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved November 16, 2025.
  11. 1 2 "Pa. Democratic Party officially endorses Shapiro and Davis". FOX43. February 7, 2026. Retrieved February 8, 2026.
  12. ↑ Ulrich, Steve (January 8, 2026). "Shapiro Launches Reelection Campaign For Governor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved January 8, 2026.
  13. ↑ Levy, Marc (August 18, 2025). "Republican Stacy Garrity seeks to challenge Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's reelection bid". Associated Press . Retrieved August 18, 2025.
  14. 1 2 Stockburger, George (January 8, 2026). "Who is running for Governor of Pennsylvania?". abc27. Retrieved January 13, 2026.
  15. ↑ White, Jaxon (April 4, 2025). "State Sen. Scott Martin doesn't rule out potential entrance into 2026 governor's race". Lancaster Online . Retrieved April 4, 2025.
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ulrich, Steve (August 25, 2025). "Garrity Consolidates PA GOP Leaders Around Gubernatorial Campaign". PoliticsPA . Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  17. ↑ "State Sen. Doug Mastriano announces he will not run for governor in 2026". fox43.com. January 7, 2026. Retrieved January 7, 2026.
  18. ↑ Toth, Matthew (July 9, 2025). "'My focus needs to remain on doing my job': Rep. Meuser won't run for Pa governor in 2026". Lebanon Daily News . Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  19. 1 2 Lindenmuth, Kaylee; Stockburger, George (August 20, 2025). "U.S. Rep. Meuser backs Garrity for Governor". WHTM-TV .
  20. 1 2 McGoldrick, Gillian (December 8, 2024). "U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser is considering a run for Pa. governor in 2026 — and Treasurer Stacy Garrity isn't ruling one out". The Philadelphia Inquirer . Retrieved December 8, 2024.
  21. 1 2 Prose, J.D. (December 10, 2025). "Pa. AG Dave Sunday endorses Treasurer Stacy Garrity for governor". PennLive. Retrieved December 11, 2025.
  22. ↑ Cole, John (March 13, 2025). "Q&A: Congressman Glenn Thompson talks tariffs, SNAP, and immigration's impact on agriculture". Pennsylvania Capital-Star . Retrieved March 13, 2025. Thompson: I would be honored to serve the state of Pennsylvania as governor, but I do think at this point in time with where I'm at in Congress that my best leadership and service for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is right here in Washington, DC.
  23. 1 2 "Thompson endorses Garrity for governor". The Express. September 3, 2025. Retrieved September 7, 2025.
  24. ↑ "Trump endorses Stacy Garrity in her bid to oust Gov. Josh Shapiro". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved January 28, 2026.
  25. ↑ Kail, Benjamin (January 29, 2026). "Jason Richey, Allegheny County GOP chair, running for lieutenant governor". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved January 30, 2026.
  26. ↑ Graas, Lisa (December 12, 2025). "Former U.S. Senator and Presidential Candidate Rick Santorum Endorses Garrity for Governor". Pierced Hearts. Retrieved December 29, 2025.
  27. ↑ Rob Bresnahan (September 27, 2025). Stacy Garrity for Governor rally with Congressman Rob Bresnahan, September 26, 2025. Monroe County Republican Party of PA. Retrieved November 29, 2025.
  28. ↑ McGoldrick, Gillian (January 26, 2026). "Facing an uphill battle against Gov. Josh Shapiro's $30 million war chest, Stacy Garrity still has to convince top Republicans she's worth investing in". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved January 26, 2026.
  29. ↑ "U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker endorses Treasurer Stacy Garrity for governor". Lancaster Online . September 10, 2025. Retrieved September 10, 2025.
  30. ↑ Duckworth, Matthew (February 4, 2026). "Congressman Perry endorses Stacy Garrity for PA governor, calls Shapiro an 'utter failure'". WHP. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  31. ↑ DeJesus, Ivey (September 17, 2025). "Former Gov. Tom Corbett endorses Republican Stacy Garrity in Pa. governor's race". PennLive.com . Retrieved September 17, 2025.
  32. ↑ Doran, Brady (December 11, 2025). "Garrity receives endorsement from Auditor General Tim DeFoor". abc27 . Retrieved December 30, 2025.
  33. ↑ Turner, Ford (July 27, 2025). "GOP field begins to emerge in 2026 race for Pennsylvania Governor". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette . Retrieved August 14, 2025.
  34. ↑ Prose, J.D. (December 29, 2025). "Pa. Treasurer Stacy Garrity gets nod from conservative PAC in governor bid". PennLive. Retrieved December 30, 2025.
  35. ↑ Schneider, Aliya (September 20, 2025). "Stacy Garrity gets state GOP endorsement for governor: 'Help is on the way.'". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved September 21, 2025.
  36. ↑ Samuels, Brett (May 30, 2025). "Trump says he would back GOP Rep. Meuser for Pennsylvania governor bid". The Hill . Retrieved June 4, 2025.
  37. ↑ Kail, Benjamin (September 24, 2025). "Pennsylvania Republican primary voters favor Mastriano over Garrity by wide margin, poll suggests" . Pittsburgh Post-Gazette . Retrieved September 26, 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  38. ↑ Otterbein, Holly (July 27, 2025). "'A nightmare that no one wants': GOP fears Mastriano's down-ballot drag in Pennsylvania". Politico. Retrieved January 8, 2026.
  39. ↑ Cole, John (April 8, 2024). "Straw poll from Pennsylvania Leadership Conference offers early look at future GOP nominees". City & State Pennsylvania.
  40. 1 2 3 Bernard, Katie; McGoldrick, Gillian (January 14, 2026). "Stacy Garrity says she's 'talking to a lot of people' about being her running mate. Only two have stepped up". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved January 14, 2026.
  41. 1 2 Ulrich, Steve (January 29, 2026). "Garrity Endorses Jason Richey For Lieutenant Governor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved January 29, 2026.
  42. ↑ McGoldrick, Gillian (March 28, 2025). "Garrity-Mastriano 2026? Doug Mastriano floats teaming up with Stacy Garrity to beat Dan Meuser in GOP primary for Pa. governor". The Philadelphia Inquirer . Retrieved March 29, 2025.
  43. ↑ Prose, J.D. "Mastriano says 'only way' for Garrity to win governor's race is with him on the ticket". PennLive. PennLive. Retrieved January 10, 2026.
  44. 1 2 Martin, Trebor (February 5, 2026). "State Sen. Cris Dush drops out of lieutenant governor race, endorses Jason Richey". Centre Daily Times. Retrieved February 6, 2026.
  45. ↑ "Lieutenant Governor hopeful Jason Richey gains Pennsylvania GOP support before primary". WITF. February 7, 2026. Retrieved February 8, 2026.
  46. ↑ Pelullo, Antonio (June 9, 2023). "Libertarian Candidate for Governor Visiting Butler". Butler Radio Network. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  47. 1 2 "Messner Announces Governor Bid". New Castle News. June 9, 2023. Retrieved January 5, 2026.
  48. ↑ "2026 CPR Governor Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 23, 2025.
  49. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved February 7, 2025.
  50. ↑ "2026 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 1, 2025.
  51. ↑ "Governor Forecast - 2026-2026". Race to the WH. Retrieved June 30, 2025.
  52. 1 2 "2026 Governor Polling". Race to the White House. Retrieved November 24, 2025.
  53. ↑ "2026 Pennsylvania Governor - Garrity vs. Shapiro". RealClearPolitics.com. Retrieved November 24, 2025.
  54. ↑ Ulrich, Steve (March 5, 2026). "F&M Poll: Shapiro Leads Garrity For Governor, 48-28%". Politics PA. Retrieved March 5, 2026.
  55. ↑ "Would Josh Shapiro Make A Good President? Pennsylvania Voters Are Divided, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Voters Do Agree On This: Ban Cellphones In K-12 Schools". Quinnipiac University . February 25, 2026. Retrieved February 25, 2026.
  56. 1 2 "Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro Hits 60% Job Approval, Leads Republicans In 2026, 2028 Matchups, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Dems Sour On Fetterman While GOP Voters Approve Of Him". Quinnipiac University. October 1, 2025. Retrieved October 1, 2025.
  57. ↑ @SusquehannaPR (October 7, 2025). "In SP&R's latest PA poll, Gov. Shapiro leads "presumptive" GOP nominee S. Garrity by a 54:36 margin. But most of undecided vote is GOP - suggesting Garrity has plenty of room to grow as she continues to build name awareness... Field Dates 9/22-9/28; Sample 700 LV: MoE +/-3.7%" (Tweet). Retrieved October 7, 2025– via X (formerly Twitter).
  58. ↑ "2026 Pennsylvania Governor - Mastriano vs. Shapiro". RealClearPolitics.com. Retrieved November 24, 2025.
  59. ↑ @SusquehannaPR (October 6, 2025). "Today SP&R releases PA Poll showing hypothetical h2h for Pa Gov ('26) w/ Gov. Shapiro leading former GOP rival D. Mastriano 55:37. Mastriano lost to Shapiro by 15 pts. in '22. Will S. Garrity do better? Find out tomorrow... Field Dates 9/22-9/28; Sample 704 LV; MoE: +/-3.7%" (Tweet). Retrieved October 7, 2025– via X (formerly Twitter).
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