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2026 Arizona gubernatorial election

Last updated

2026 Arizona gubernatorial election
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2022
November 3, 2026
2030 
  Katie Hobbs in 2025.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Katie Hobbs
(presumptive)
TBD
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent Governor

Katie Hobbs
Democratic



The 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Arizona. The primary elections will take place on July 21, 2026. [1] Incumbent Democratic governor Katie Hobbs is running for re-election to a second term.

Contents

Following the passage of Proposition 131 in the 2022 elections, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Arizona in which candidates will be required to nominate a running mate for the newly established position of lieutenant governor. [2] This will be one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2026 in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election.

Background

Arizona is considered to be a purple state at both the federal and statewide level. After Joe Biden carried the state narrowly in the 2020 presidential election, [3] Donald Trump carried the state of Arizona by 5.5 points in the 2024 presidential election. [4] Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats in Arizona [5] [6] and hold the governorship and secretary of state office. [7] [8] Meanwhile, Republicans maintain a majority in the Arizona Senate and Arizona House of Representatives, [9] and control 6 of the 9 House of Representatives seats in the state. [10] Democrats have characterized this race as key to establishing a Democratic trifecta in Arizona for the first time in 60 years. [11]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Andy Biggs
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Karrin Taylor Robson (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Andy
Biggs
Karrin
Taylor Robson
David
Schweikert
Undecided [a] Margin
270toWin [49] October 26-November 10, 2025January 1, 202646.5%18.0%5.0%30.5%Biggs +28.5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Andy
Biggs
Karrin
Taylor Robson
David
Schweikert
OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [50] February 23–26, 2026384 (RV)± 5.0%40%19%41%
February 12, 2026Taylor Robson suspends her campaign.
Center for Excellence in Polling [51] January 22–24, 2026– (LV)28%19%12%41%
Emerson College [52] November 8–10, 2025381 (RV)± 5.0%50%17%8%1% [c] 24%
GrayHouse (R) [53] October 26–28, 2025397 (LV)± 3.6%43%19%2%36%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [54] September 8–10, 2025502 (LV)± 4.4%48%26%11%15%
55%31%14%
61%23%16%
Kreate Strategies (R) [55] August 19–21, 2025679 (RV)65%14%21%
Noble Predictive Insights [56] August 11–18, 2025385 (RV)± 5.0%27%37%36%
NextGen P (R) [57] June 17–18, 20251,380 (LV)± 2.6%49%26%8%17%
Kreate Strategies (R) [58] [A] May 23–25, 20251,147 (LV)± 2.9%57%25%18%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [59] [B] April 6–9, 2025511 (LV)± 4.4%45%16%39%
NicoPAC (R) [60] April 2–6, 2025477 (RV)± 4.5%66%15%4%15%
NicoPAC (R) [61] January 24–26, 2025512 (RV)± 4.3%71%14%15%
Hypothetical polling
Andy Biggs vs. Charlie Kirk vs. Jack McCain vs. Jake Hoffman vs. Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Kimberly Yee
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Andy
Biggs
Jake
Hoffman
Charlie
Kirk
Jack
McCain
Karrin
Taylor Robson
Kimberly
Yee
OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [62] May 12–16, 2025426 (RV)± 4.8%17%17%24%6%37%
Noble Predictive Insights [63] February 11–13, 2025374 (RV)± 5.1%14%1%14%8%11%5%47%
NicoPAC (R) [61] January 24–26, 2025512 (RV)± 4.3%59%9%11%3% [d] 19%
Data Orbital [64] [C] January 18–20, 2025500 (LV)± 4.5%32%12%7%4% [e] 45%
Andy Biggs vs. Kimberly Yee
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Andy
Biggs
Kimberly
Yee
OtherUndecided
NicoPAC (R) [61] January 24–26, 2025512 (RV)± 4.3%67%19%14%
Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Kimberly Yee
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Karrin
Taylor Robson
Kimberly
Yee
OtherUndecided
NicoPAC (R) [61] January 24–26, 2025512 (RV)± 4.3%15%41%43%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Barry Hess, businessman and perennial candidate [f] [66]

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Lisa Castillo [68]
  • William Pounds, streamer/recording artist and candidate for governor in 2022 [69]

Endorsements

William Pounds
U.S. representatives

No Labels Primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Teri Hourihan, therapist [71]
  • Hugh Lytle, health care entrepreneur [72]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [73] TossupMarch 11, 2026
Inside Elections [74] TossupJanuary 16, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball [75] Lean DMarch 19, 2026
Race to the WH [76] Tilt DMarch 12, 2026

Polling

Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Katie
Hobbs (D)
Andy
Biggs (R)
Other/Undecided [g] Margin
Race to the WH [77] February 12, 2025 – March 4, 2026March 6, 202644.4%37.7%17.9%Hobbs +6.7%
RealClearPolitics [78] August 11, 2025 – February 26, 2026March 4, 202643.0%40.0%17.0%Hobbs +3.0%
Average43.7%38.85%17.45%Hobbs +4.85%


Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Katie
Hobbs (D)
Andy
Biggs (R)
OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [50] February 23–26, 20261,023 (RV)± 3.1%42%37%5% [h] 16%
Center for Excellence in Polling [51] January 22–24, 2026519 (LV)± 4.3%50%41%9%
NextGen P (R) [79] December 15–17, 20252,725 (LV)± 1.9%51%32%7%9%
Emerson College [52] November 8–10, 2025850 (RV)± 3.3%44%43%13%
Noble Predictive Insights [56] August 11–18, 2025948 (RV)± 3.2%39%37%4% [i] 20%
Noble Predictive Insights [62] May 12–16, 20251,026 (RV)± 3.1%40%38%5% [j] 17%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [59] [B] April 6–9, 2025501 (LV)± 4.4%46%42%12%
Noble Predictive Insights [63] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%40%38%5%17%
Kreate Strategies (R) [80] [D] February 5–7, 2025924 (LV)± 3.0%43%44%13%

Katie Hobbs vs. David Schweikert

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Katie
Hobbs (D)
David
Schweikert (R)
OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [50] February 23–26, 20261,023 (RV)± 3.1%44%35%5% [h] 16%
Center for Excellence in Polling [51] January 22–24, 2026519 (LV)± 4.3%51%38%11%
Emerson College [52] November 8–10, 2025850 (RV)± 3.3%44%39%17%
Hypothetical polling

Katie Hobbs vs. Karrin Taylor Robson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Katie
Hobbs (D)
Karrin Taylor
Robson (R)
OtherUndecided
Center for Excellence in Polling [51] January 22–24, 2026519 (LV)± 4.3%50%40%10%
NextGen P (R) [79] December 15–17, 20252,725 (LV)± 1.9%51%30%9%10%
Emerson College [52] November 8–10, 2025850 (RV)± 3.3%43%42%15%
Noble Predictive Insights [56] August 11–18, 2025948 (RV)± 3.2%40%38%4% [i] 18%
Noble Predictive Insights [62] May 12–16, 20251,026 (RV)± 3.1%41%39%3% [k] 17%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [59] [B] April 6–9, 2025501 (LV)± 4.4%47%38%15%
Noble Predictive Insights [63] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%43%35%4%18%
Kreate Strategies (R) [80] [D] February 5–7, 2025924 (LV)± 3.0%40%38%22%

Katie Hobbs vs. Charlie Kirk

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Katie
Hobbs (D)
Charlie
Kirk (R)
OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [63] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%39%36%7%18%

Katie Hobbs vs. Jake Hoffman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Katie
Hobbs (D)
Jake
Hoffman (R)
OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [63] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%40%35%5%20%

Katie Hobbs vs. Jack McCain

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Katie
Hobbs (D)
Jack
McCain (R)
OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [63] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%37%36%6%21%

Katie Hobbs vs. Kimberly Yee

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Katie
Hobbs (D)
Kimberly
Yee (R)
OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [63] February 11–13, 20251,006 (RV)± 3.1%40%34%6%20%

Katie Hobbs vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Katie
Hobbs (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
GrayHouse (R) [53] October 26–28, 2025744 (RV)± 3.6%40%44%16%

Katie Hobbs vs. someone else

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Katie
Hobbs (D)
Someone
else
Undecided
GrayHouse (R) [53] October 26–28, 2025744 (RV)± 3.6%43%48%9%


See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Someone else" with 1%
  4. Tom Hatten with 2%; Scott Neely with 1%
  5. "Refused" with 4%
  6. Nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014, 2018, and 2022; nominee for U.S. Senate in 2000, and write-in candidate in 2018 and 2020
  7. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  8. 1 2 "Third-Party" with 5%
  9. 1 2 "Third party candidate" with 4%
  10. "A third party candidate" with 5%
  11. "A third party candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by American Commitment
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Club for Growth
  3. Poll sponsored by AZ Free News
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by American Encore, which supports the Republican Party.

References

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  3. Biden carries Arizona, flipping a longtime Republican stronghold, CNN, November 13, 2020
  4. US election: How big a win was this for Donald Trump?, Sky News, January 20, 2025
  5. Democrat Gallego wins Arizona, Republicans hold 53-47 US Senate majority, Al Jazeera, November 12, 2024
  6. Mark Kelly wins Senate race in Arizona, PBS, November 12, 2022
  7. Hobbs wins Arizona governor's race, flipping state for Dems, AP News, November 14, 2022
  8. Post-Election: Republicans Add to Strong Hold of State Governments, MultiState.US, November 6, 2024
  9. Republicans maintain total control of the Arizona Legislature. Here's what you need to know., The Copper Courier, November 20, 2024
  10. Republicans keep 6-3 majority in Arizona's US House delegation, AZ Central, November 13, 2024
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Official campaign websites
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