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2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky.svg
←  2020
November 3, 2026
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Kentucky. A primary election will be held on May 19, 2026. Incumbent seven-term Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who was first elected in 1984, and most recently re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2020, declined to run for re-election. [1] This decision follows his earlier announcement to retire as Senate Republican Leader after the 2024 Senate elections. [2]

Contents

This will be the first open Senate election in Kentucky since 2010, and the first to this seat since 1972.

Background

Kentucky, a Southern state in the Bible Belt, is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1992. Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all but two statewide executive offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Kentucky General Assembly, and all but one seat in Kentucky's U.S. House delegation. [3] Democrats control both the governorship and lieutenant-governorship, which flipped from Republican control in 2019. [4]

McConnell was first elected in 1984, defeating then-incumbent Walter Dee Huddleston, and was re-elected in six subsequent elections. [5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Andy Barr
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Daniel Cameron
State legislators
Nate Morris
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Andy Barr (R)$6,489,657$3,711,685$6,471,049
Daniel Cameron (R)$1,604,448$974,432$630,016
Michael Faris (R)$30,851$46,754$0
Nate Morris (R)$6,005,802$4,581,141$1,424,661
Source: Federal Election Commission [33]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Andy
Barr		Daniel
Cameron		Nate
Morris		Other/
Undecided [a] 		Margin
Race to the WH [34] through February 6, 2026February 6, 202625.4%30.6%15.5%28.5%Cameron +5.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Andy
Barr		Daniel
Cameron		Nate
Morris		OtherUndecided
Quantus Insights (R) [35] February 4, 2026870 (LV)± 3.3%28%27%17%9% [c] 19%
Emerson College [36] [A] January 31 – February 2, 2026523 (LV)± 4.2%24%21%14%4% [d] 37%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [37] [B] January 27–29, 2026800 (LV)± 3.5%21%29%18%–42%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [38] [C] January 5–8, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%25%40%13%–22%
UpOne Insights (R) [39] [D] October 13–14, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%25%42%10%–23%
co/efficient (R) [40] [E] October 8–10, 2025911 (LV)± 3.2%22%39%8%4% [e] 27%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [41] [D] September 2–4, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%29%37%8%–26%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [37] August 2025– (V)–17%40%5%–38%
UpOne Insights (R) [39] [D] August 2025– (V)–19%39%10%–32%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [42] [E] April 13–15, 2025500 (LV)± 4.5%18%44%2%–36%
co/efficient (R) [43] February 25–26, 20251,134 (LV)± 3.1%18%39%3%11% [f] 31%
UpOne Insights (R) [39] [D] Mid–February 2025– (V)–19%47%3%–31%
co/efficient (R) [44] December 2–3, 20241,298 (LV)± 3.1%12%37%1%14% [g] 36%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Andy
Barr		Daniel
Cameron		Kelly
Craft		Thomas
Massie		Nate
Morris		Undecided
co/efficient (R) [44] December 2–3, 20241,298 (LV)± 3.1%10%32%3%16%0%39%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Joel Willett, defense contractor [51] [52]

Declined

Endorsements

Charles Booker
Executive branch officials
Dale Romans
Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Charles Booker (D)$77,155$3,056$74,099
Logan Forsythe (D)$46,938$43,805$3,133
Amy McGrath (D)$1,362,349$1,024,866$337,483
Dale Romans (D)$762,958$185,441$577,517
Pamela Stevenson (D)$266,963$242,099$24,864
Joel Willett (D)$350,036$321,249$28,787
Source: Federal Election Commission [33]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Charles
Booker		Logan
Forsythe		Amy
McGrath		Dale
Romans		Pamela
Stevenson		Vincent
Thompson		Other/
Undecided [h] 		Margin
Race to the WH [34] through February 5, 2026February 5, 202630.3%2.0%19.6%0.8%4.2%1.7%41.4%Booker +10.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Charles
Booker		Logan
Forsythe		Amy
McGrath		Pamela
Stevenson		Joel
Willett		OtherUndecided
Emerson College [36] [A] January 31 – February 2, 2026523 (LV)± 4.2%30%1%19%4%–3% [i] 43%
Public Policy Polling (D) [57] October 17–18, 2025590 (LV)± 4.0%33%2%30%3%1%–31%

Independents

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Scott Duncan [58]
  • Christopher Todd Campbell [59]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [60] Solid RJanuary 12, 2026
The Cook Political Report [61] Solid RJanuary 12, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball [62] Safe RJanuary 29, 2026
Race To The WH [63] Safe RFebruary 2, 2026

Polling

Andy Barr vs. Charles Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Andy
Barr (R)		Charles
Booker (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [64] [F] December 18–19, 2025650 (V)–49%38%13%

Daniel Cameron vs. Charles Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Daniel
Cameron (R)		Charles
Booker (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [64] [F] December 18–19, 2025650 (V)–46%39%15%

Nate Morris vs. Charles Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Nate
Morris (R)		Charles
Booker (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [64] [F] December 18–19, 2025650 (V)–41%40%19%
Hypothetical polling

Generic Republican vs. Charles Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Charles
Booker (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [64] [F] December 18–19, 2025650 (V)–50%36%14%

Generic Republican vs. Amy McGrath

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Amy
McGrath (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [64] [F] December 18–19, 2025650 (V)–51%35%14%

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ "Another candidate" with 9%
  4. ↑ Michael Faris with 2%; Andrew Shelley and Wende Kennedy with 1%
  5. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
  6. ↑ "Someone else" with 11%
  7. ↑ Kelly Craft with 6%; "Other" with 8%
  8. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  9. ↑ Vincent Thompson with 2%; Dale Romans with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Morris's campaign
  3. ↑ Poll commissioned by Kentucky First Action, a Cameron-aligned super PAC
  4. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Barr's campaign
  5. 1 2 Poll commissioned by Cameron's campaign
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll sponsored by Booker's campaign

References

  1. ↑ Schreiner, Bruce; Freking, Kevin (February 20, 2025). "Sen. Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection in 2026, ending long tenure as Republican power broker". The Associated Press . Washington, D.C. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  2. ↑ Knowles, Hannah (February 16, 2026). "Mitch McConnell is taking a beating in the race to replace him". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 16, 2026.
  3. ↑ "Kentucky House and Senate Republicans maintain supermajority". kaco.org. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  4. ↑ Golshan, Tara (November 6, 2019). "Democrat Andy Beshear just unseated Kentucky's Trump-loving governor". Vox. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  5. ↑ McCausland, Phil (November 4, 2020). "Sen. Mitch McConnell wins another term in Kentucky, NBC News projects". NBC News . Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  6. 1 2 Horn, Austin (April 22, 2025). "Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr launches bid for U.S. Senate, gets Rogers' support". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved April 22, 2025.
  7. ↑ Horn, Austin (February 20, 2025). "Daniel Cameron launches 2026 U.S. Senate bid on heels of Mitch McConnell announcement". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  8. ↑ Sheroan, Ben (March 15, 2025). "Outsider thinks voters are looking for different voice". The News-Enterprise. Retrieved May 11, 2025.
  9. ↑ Horn, Austin (June 26, 2025). "KY entrepreneur Nate Morris launches 'referendum' on McConnell bid for U.S. Senate". Lexington Herald-Leader .
  10. ↑ "SHELLY, NICHOLAS ANDREW FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY FILING FEC-1895468".
  11. ↑ Catanese, David (March 21, 2024). "Who would be the front-runner for McConnell's Senate seat in 2026?". McClatchy . Retrieved March 21, 2024. A spokesperson for Comer...relayed that Comer has no interest in running for senate even if McConnell does not seek reelection.
  12. ↑ Schreiner, Bruce (February 20, 2025). "Sen. Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection in 2026, ending long tenure as Republican power broker". Associated Press . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  13. ↑ Horn, Austin; Catanese, David (February 12, 2025). "Andy Barr for Senate? KY Congressman indicates he's ready to run upon McConnell retirement". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved February 12, 2025.
  14. ↑ Horsley, McKenna (February 20, 2025). "Kentucky's McConnell not seeking reelection to U.S. Senate in 2026". Kentucky Lantern . Retrieved February 24, 2025. Former Kentucky Senate Republican Floor Leader Damon Thayer told the Kentucky Lantern that...he does not see himself pursuing a run for the open seat.
  15. ↑ Horn, Austin (September 22, 2025). "Thomas Massie not ruling out US Senate bid, but bullish on Cameron's odds". Lexington Herald-Leader .
  16. 1 2 3 4 Horn, Austin (December 16, 2025). "More than 100 GOP House members endorse Andy Barr's Senate campaign". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved December 16, 2025.
  17. 1 2 Kelly, Erin (April 23, 2025). "Rep. Andy Barr touts GOP endorsements, looking to secure Trump's support". Spectrum News . Retrieved April 24, 2025.
  18. 1 2 3 "KY Gov. Beshear speaks across country, appears with Biden". Lexington Herald-Leader. Retrieved January 3, 2026.
  19. 1 2 3 4 Horsley, McKenna; Lucke, Jamie (April 23, 2025). "Race is on in KY for U.S. Senate — and Trump's nod — as second Republican announces". Kentucky Lantern . Retrieved April 24, 2025.
  20. ↑ Schreiner, Bruce (October 17, 2025). "Daniel Cameron banking on his name ID to overcome lackluster fundraising in Kentucky Senate race". WPSD Local 6. Retrieved November 20, 2025.
  21. ↑ "Kentucky Politics Insider: A Grimes comeback? Vibes at Barr launch". Kentucky Herald Leader. Retrieved November 20, 2025.
  22. ↑ Pinski, Hannah (April 22, 2025). "Andy Barr starts Senate campaign, announces he will run for Mitch McConnell's seat in 2026". Courier Journal . Retrieved April 24, 2025.
  23. ↑ Horsley, McKenna (February 6, 2026). "Endorsement war brews among Kentucky Republicans ahead of primary election". Kentucky Lantern. Retrieved February 7, 2026.
  24. ↑ Isenstadt, Alex (January 19, 2026). "Scoop: Musk shocks with $10 million donation in Ky. Senate race". Axios. Retrieved January 19, 2026.
  25. ↑ Samuels, Brett (July 24, 2025). "Trump ally Banks endorses Nate Morris in Kentucky Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved July 24, 2025.
  26. ↑ Wren, Adam (July 30, 2025). "Bernie Moreno endorses Nate Morris in Kentucky Senate race to replace Mitch McConnell". Politico . Retrieved July 30, 2025.
  27. ↑ Aulbach, Lucas. "Race to replace Mitch McConnell heats up on stage: 3 takeaways from Fancy Farm 2025". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved August 4, 2025.
  28. ↑ Stone, Matt (June 30, 2025). "MAGA supporter Charlie Kirk explains why he's backing Nate Morris for US Senate". Courier Journal . Retrieved June 30, 2025.
  29. 1 2 Horn, Austin (September 25, 2025). "Conservative billionaire PAC backs Nate Morris for Senate in TV ad campaign". Lexington Herald-Leader . Archived from the original on September 25, 2025. Retrieved September 26, 2025.
  30. ↑ Renewal, Republicans for National (August 8, 2025). "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Nate Morris for U.S. Senate in Kentucky". Republicans for National Renewal. Retrieved August 9, 2025.
  31. ↑ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
  32. ↑ https://townhall.com/tipsheet/dmitri-bolt/2025/07/30/sen-bernie-moreno-throws-support-behind-nate-morris-in-senate-bid-n2661164#google_vignette
  33. 1 2 "2026 Election United States Senate – Kentucky". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  34. 1 2 "2026 Senate Polling Average". Race to the WH. Retrieved February 6, 2026.
  35. ↑ "Kentucky US Senate Primary". Quantus Insights. February 5, 2026. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  36. 1 2 "Kentucky 2026 Poll: GOP Voters Split in Three-Way Primary to Succeed McConnell". Emerson College Polling . February 5, 2026. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  37. 1 2 Christenson, Josh (February 4, 2026). "Charlie Kirk-backed Senate candidate Nate Morris surging in race to replace Mitch McConnell". New York Post . Retrieved February 4, 2026.
  38. ↑ "Statewide Polling Shows Daniel Cameron with a Strong Lead in Both Ballot and Name ID in the Republican Primary Election for Senate". OnMessage Inc. January 13, 2026. Retrieved January 15, 2026.
  39. 1 2 3 Horn, Austin (October 15, 2025). "KY Politics Insider: Cameron's poll shows lead & Beshear on the road". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved November 7, 2025.
  40. ↑ "Kentucky Senate 2026 Republican Primary". co/efficient. October 10, 2025. Retrieved October 14, 2025.
  41. ↑ Mueller, Eleanor (September 6, 2025). "New poll reveals Kentucky's shifting Senate race". Semafor. Retrieved September 9, 2025.
  42. ↑ McLaughlin, John (April 21, 2025). "Kentucky Statewide – Republican Primary for U.S. Senate" (PDF). Cameron for Kentucky. Retrieved April 24, 2025.
  43. ↑ Weigel, David (March 3, 2025). "McConnell protégé Cameron leads in early Kentucky Senate primary poll". Semafor. Retrieved March 3, 2025.
  44. 1 2 Horn, Austin (February 11, 2025). "Is Daniel Cameron running for Senate? Former KY AG says he 'would be honored to serve'". Lexington Herald Leader . Retrieved April 24, 2025.
  45. ↑ Horn, Austin (December 3, 2025). "Charles Booker launches third run for US Senate in Kentucky". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved December 3, 2025.
  46. ↑ Kim-Martinez, Isaiah (September 16, 2025). "Former Secret Service agent announces run for McConnell's U.S. Senate seat". WHAS-TV . Retrieved September 16, 2025.
  47. ↑ Harbsmeier, Deborah; Anderson, Marlo (October 6, 2025). "Amy McGrath takes another shot at the U.S. Senate". Spectrum News . Retrieved October 6, 2025.
  48. ↑ Epstein, Reid J. (November 12, 2025). "Dale Romans Enters Kentucky Senate Race as Democrats' Latest Long Shot". The New York Times . Retrieved November 12, 2025.
  49. ↑ Anderson, Mario (February 10, 2025). "In Focus: House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson talks 2025 legislative priorities in Kentucky General Assembly". Spectrum News . Retrieved February 12, 2025. Stevenson also confirmed during this interview that she is running in the Democratic primary for Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell's seat in 2026.
  50. ↑ https://www.thenewsenterprise.com/news/local/rineyville-man-wants-to-expand-his-public-service/article_869d2b55-13d2-5f03-9e53-e3bf973dde5e.html
  51. ↑ Gedeon, Joseph (September 17, 2025). "Ex-CIA officer stripped of clearance 'determined to run' for Mitch McConnell's seat". The Guardian . ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved September 17, 2025.
  52. ↑ Osting, Jennifer (January 13, 2026). "Joel Willett, veteran and former CIA officer, drops out of Kentucky Senate race". WLKY. Retrieved January 19, 2026.
  53. ↑ Horn, Austin (September 4, 2025). "Sen. Andy Beshear? Thanks, but no thanks, he says to prominent Dem supporters". Lexington Herald-Leader . Archived from the original on September 4, 2025. Retrieved September 4, 2025.
  54. ↑ Barrett, Alexis (February 20, 2025). "Daniel Cameron, Pam Stevenson announce 2026 Senate bids". Marshall County Tribune-Courier. Retrieved February 20, 2025. JT Henderson, a representative for Lt. Governor Jacqueline Coleman, said that Coleman is 'not interested' in running.
  55. ↑ "Local political trailblazers endorse Charles Booker for U.S. Senate". WHAS11. January 16, 2026. Retrieved January 18, 2026.
  56. ↑ "Trevor McCarthy Joins the TDN Writersʼ Room Podcast Presented by Keeneland". Thoroughbred Daily News. November 25, 2025.
  57. ↑ "Kentucky Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling . October 24, 2025. Retrieved October 24, 2025.
  58. ↑ "DUNCAN, SCOTT MICHEAL – Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 11, 2025.
  59. ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1925742". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved November 20, 2025.
  60. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  61. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  62. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  63. ↑ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
  64. 1 2 3 4 5 Horn, Austin (December 31, 2025). "Booker poll claims US Senate race within striking distance". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved January 3, 2026.
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