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2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Last updated March 05, 2026

The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2024). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).

Most election ratings use:

Tossup: no advantage
Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain

The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.

District	CPVI ^[1]	Incumbent	Last result^[2]	Cook Jan. 15, 2026^[3]	IE Dec. 5, 2025^[4]	Sabato Mar. 4, 2026^[5]	WH Mar. 2, 2026^[6]
Alaska at-large	R+6	Nick Begich III	51.3% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Arizona 1	R+1	David Schweikert (retiring)	51.9% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Arizona 2	R+7	Eli Crane	54.5% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Arizona 5	R+10	Andy Biggs (retiring)	60.4% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Arizona 6	EVEN	Juan Ciscomani	50.0% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)
California 1	D+7^[a]	Vacant^[b]	65.3% R	Solid D (flip)	Solid D (flip)	Safe D (flip)	Likely D (flip)
California 6	D+5^[a]	Kevin Kiley	55.5% R	Solid D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)
California 13	D+2^[a]	Adam Gray	50.0% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D
California 21	D+5^[a]	Jim Costa	52.6% D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D
California 22	D+1^[a]	David Valadao	53.4% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup
California 25	D+4^[a]	Raul Ruiz	56.3% D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D
California 40	R+6^[a]	Young Kim and Ken Calvert	55.3% R; 51.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
California 45	D+3^[a]	Derek Tran	50.1% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D
California 47	D+6^[a]	Dave Min	51.4% D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D
California 48	D+2^[a]	Darrell Issa	59.3% R	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)
Colorado 3	R+5	Jeff Hurd	50.8% R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R
Colorado 4	R+9	Lauren Boebert	53.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Colorado 5	R+5	Jeff Crank	54.7% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Tilt R
Colorado 8	EVEN	Gabe Evans	49.0% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)
Connecticut 5	D+3	Jahana Hayes	53.4% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
Florida 4	R+5	Aaron Bean	57.3% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Florida 7	R+5	Cory Mills	56.5% R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R
Florida 9	D+4	Darren Soto	55.1% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Florida 13	R+5	Anna Paulina Luna	54.8% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Florida 15	R+5	Laurel Lee	56.2% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Lean R
Florida 16	R+7	Vern Buchanan (retiring)	59.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Florida 23	D+2	Jared Moskowitz	52.4% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D
Florida 27	R+6	María Elvira Salazar	60.4% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Georgia 1	R+8	Buddy Carter (retiring)	62.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Illinois 8	D+5	Raja Krishnamoorthi (retiring)	57.1% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D
Illinois 17	D+3	Eric Sorensen	54.4% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
Indiana 1	D+1	Frank J. Mrvan	53.4% D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D
Iowa 1	R+4	Mariannette Miller-Meeks	50.1% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Iowa 2	R+4	Ashley Hinson (retiring)	57.1% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Tilt R
Iowa 3	R+2	Zach Nunn	51.9% R	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup
Kansas 3	D+2	Sharice Davids	53.4% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
Kentucky 6	R+7	Andy Barr (retiring)	63.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Likely R	Lean R
Maine 2	R+4	Jared Golden (retiring)	50.3% D	Likely R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Lean R (flip)
Maryland 6	D+3	April McClain Delaney	53.1% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
Michigan 4	R+3	Bill Huizenga	55.1% R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R
Michigan 7	EVEN	Tom Barrett	50.3% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Michigan 8	R+1	Kristen McDonald Rivet	51.2% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D
Michigan 10	R+3	John James (retiring)	51.1% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup
Minnesota 1	R+6	Brad Finstad	58.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Lean R
Minnesota 2	D+3	Angie Craig (retiring)	55.6% D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D
Minnesota 8	R+7	Pete Stauber	58.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Missouri 2	TBD^[a]	Ann Wagner	54.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Missouri 5	TBD^[a]	Emanuel Cleaver	60.2% D	Solid D ^[c]	Solid R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Likely R (flip)
Montana 1	R+5	Ryan Zinke (retiring)	52.3% R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Tilt R
Nebraska 1	R+6	Mike Flood	60.1% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Nebraska 2	D+3	Don Bacon (retiring)	50.9% R	Lean D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)
Nevada 1	D+2	Dina Titus	52.0% D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D
Nevada 2	R+7	Mark Amodei (retiring)	55.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Nevada 3	D+1	Susie Lee	51.4% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Nevada 4	D+2	Steven Horsford	52.7% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
New Hampshire 1	D+2	Chris Pappas (retiring)	54.0% D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D
New Hampshire 2	D+2	Maggie Goodlander	53.0% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
New Jersey 2	R+5	Jeff Van Drew	58.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
New Jersey 5	D+2	Josh Gottheimer	54.6% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
New Jersey 7	EVEN	Thomas Kean Jr.	51.8% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup
New Jersey 9	D+2	Nellie Pou	50.8% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D
New Mexico 2	EVEN	Gabe Vasquez	52.1% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D
New York 1	R+4	Nick LaLota	55.2% R	Solid R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R
New York 2	R+6	Andrew Garbarino	59.8% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
New York 3	EVEN	Tom Suozzi	51.8% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
New York 4	D+2	Laura Gillen	51.1% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D
New York 17	D+1	Mike Lawler	52.2% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup
New York 18	D+2	Pat Ryan	57.2% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
New York 19	D+1	Josh Riley	51.1% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D
New York 21	R+10	Elise Stefanik (retiring)	62.1% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
New York 22	D+4	John Mannion	54.6% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
North Carolina 1	R+5^[a]	Don Davis	49.5% D	Lean R (flip)	Tilt R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Tossup
North Carolina 3	R+6^[a]	Greg Murphy	77.4% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
North Carolina 9	R+8^[a]	Richard Hudson	56.3% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Lean R
North Carolina 11	R+5^[a]	Chuck Edwards	56.8% R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Tilt R
North Carolina 13	R+8^[a]	Brad Knott	58.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
North Carolina 14	R+8^[a]	Tim Moore	58.1% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Ohio 1	R+1^[a]	Greg Landsman	54.6% D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D
Ohio 7	R+5^[a]	Max Miller	51.1% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Ohio 8	R+12^[a]	Warren Davidson	62.8% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Ohio 9	R+5^[a]	Marcy Kaptur	48.3% D	Tossup	Tilt R (flip)	Lean R (flip)	Tossup
Ohio 10	R+4^[a]	Mike Turner	57.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Ohio 13	D+2^[a]	Emilia Sykes	51.1% D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D
Ohio 15	R+5^[a]	Mike Carey	56.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Lean R
Oklahoma 5	R+9	Stephanie Bice	60.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Oregon 4	D+6	Val Hoyle	51.7% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
Oregon 5	D+4	Janelle Bynum	47.7% D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Oregon 6	D+6	Andrea Salinas	53.3% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D
Pennsylvania 1	D+1	Brian Fitzpatrick	56.4% R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Tossup
Pennsylvania 7	R+1	Ryan Mackenzie	50.5% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania 8	R+4	Rob Bresnahan	50.8% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Tilt R
Pennsylvania 10	R+3	Scott Perry	50.6% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania 17	D+3	Chris Deluzio	53.9% D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
South Carolina 1	R+6	Nancy Mace (retiring)	58.3% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Lean R
South Carolina 2	R+7	Joe Wilson	59.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R
South Carolina 5	R+11	Ralph Norman (retiring)	63.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Tennessee 5	R+8	Andy Ogles	56.8% R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R
Texas 8	R+16^[a]	Morgan Luttrell (retiring)	68.2% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R
Texas 9	R+9^[a]	New seat	–	Solid R (flip)	Solid R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Lean R (flip)
Texas 10	R+10^[a]	Michael McCaul (retiring)	63.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Texas 15	R+7^[a]	Monica De La Cruz	57.1% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R
Texas 22	R+11^[a]	Troy Nehls (retiring)	62.1% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Texas 28	R+3^[a]	Henry Cuellar	52.8% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Tilt D
Texas 32	R+8^[a]	New seat	–	Solid R (flip)	Solid R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Likely R (flip)
Texas 34	R+3^[a]	Vicente Gonzalez	51.3% D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Texas 35	R+4^[a]	New seat	–	Likely R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Tilt R (flip)
Texas 38	R+10^[a]	Wesley Hunt (retiring)	62.9% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R
Virginia 1	R+3	Rob Wittman	56.4% R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R
Virginia 2	EVEN	Jen Kiggans	50.8% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)
Virginia 5	R+6	John McGuire	57.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Tilt R
Virginia 7	D+2	Eugene Vindman	51.3% D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D
Washington 3	R+2	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	51.7% D	Tossup	Tilt D	Lean D	Tilt D
Washington 4	R+10	Dan Newhouse (retiring)	52.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Washington 5	R+5	Michael Baumgartner	60.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Wisconsin 1	R+2	Bryan Steil	54.1% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R
Wisconsin 3	R+3	Derrick Van Orden	51.4% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup
Wisconsin 7	R+11	Tom Tiffany (retiring)	63.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Overall				D – 211 R – 206 19 tossups	D – 212 R – 213 11 tossups	D – 211 R – 208 17 tossups	D – 216 R – 203 16 tossups

Party listings

The two parties' campaign committees (the National Republican Congressional Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) published their own lists of targeted seats.

Republican-held seats

On April 8, 2025, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.^[7] On December 10, 2025, the list was revised adding four districts (CA-48, FL-15, NC-3, and NC-11) and removing two (CA-40 and CA-41).^[8] The list was further revised on February 10, 2026, where five more districts (CO-5, MN-1, MT-1, SC-1, and VA-5) were added.^[9]

Democratic-held seats

On March 17, 2025, the National Republican Congressional Committee released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.^[10] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:

California 9: Josh Harder
California 13: Adam Gray
California 27: George Whitesides
California 45: Derek Tran
California 47: Dave Min
Florida 9: Darren Soto
Florida 23: Jared Moskowitz
Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
Maine 2: Open seat
Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet
North Carolina 1: Don Davis
New Hampshire 1: Open seat
New Jersey 9: Nellie Pou
New Mexico 2: Gabe Vasquez
Nevada 1: Dina Titus
Nevada 3: Susie Lee
Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
New York 3: Tom Suozzi
New York 4: Laura Gillen
New York 19: Josh Riley
Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
Ohio 13: Emilia Sykes
Texas 28: Henry Cuellar
Texas 34: Vicente Gonzalez
Virginia 7: Eugene Vindman
Washington 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Notes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 State enacted a new congressional map after the most recent publication of the Cook PVI.
↑ Doug LaMalfa died on January 6, 2026. A special election using the current, strongly Republican boundaries will be held on August 4, 2026.
↑ Prediction was made before recent redistricting.

References

↑ "2025 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List (119th Congress)". The Cook Political Report. April 3, 2025. Retrieved April 3, 2025.
↑ "Election 2024: House results". CNN. Retrieved March 7, 2025.
↑ "2026 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 14, 2025.
↑ "2026 House Ratings". Inside elections. Retrieved December 6, 2025.
↑ "2026 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 10, 2025.
↑ "The 2026 House Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved October 8, 2025.
↑ rice@dccc.org (April 8, 2025). "DCCC Announces 2026 Districts in Play". DCCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
↑ iwata@dccc.org (December 10, 2025). "DCCC Expands the Battlefield in 2026 with New Offensive Targets". DCCC. Retrieved December 11, 2025.
↑ iwata@dccc.org (February 10, 2026). "DCCC Announces Second Expansion of the House Battlefield for 2026 Cycle with 5 New Offensive Targets". DCCC. Retrieved February 10, 2026.
↑ Marinella, Mike (March 17, 2025). "NRCC Targets 26 Offensive Seats to Expand House Majority". NRCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.

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[newmap-7] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 State enacted a new congressional map after the most recent publication of the Cook PVI.

[8] Doug LaMalfa died on January 6, 2026. A special election using the current, strongly Republican boundaries will be held on August 4, 2026.

[predictions-9] Prediction was made before recent redistricting.

[new_pvi2-1] "2025 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List (119th Congress)". The Cook Political Report. April 3, 2025. Retrieved April 3, 2025.

[2020results-2] "Election 2024: House results". CNN. Retrieved March 7, 2025.

[CPRratings1-3] "2026 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 14, 2025.

[4] "2026 House Ratings". Inside elections. Retrieved December 6, 2025.

[5] "2026 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 10, 2025.

[6] "The 2026 House Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved October 8, 2025.

[10] rice@dccc.org (April 8, 2025). "DCCC Announces 2026 Districts in Play". DCCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.

[11] wata@dccc.org (December 10, 2025). "DCCC Expands the Battlefield in 2026 with New Offensive Targets". DCCC. Retrieved December 11, 2025.

[12] wata@dccc.org (February 10, 2026). "DCCC Announces Second Expansion of the House Battlefield for 2026 Cycle with 5 New Offensive Targets". DCCC. Retrieved February 10, 2026.

[13] Marinella, Mike (March 17, 2025). "NRCC Targets 26 Offensive Seats to Expand House Majority". NRCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.

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