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2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana

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2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana
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←  2020
November 3, 2026
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Bill Cassidy
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Louisiana. A runoff election will be held on December 12, 2026 if no candidate wins a majority. Party primary elections will be held on May 16, 2026 with a runoff on June 27 if no candidate wins a majority in the primary. Incumbent Republican senator Bill Cassidy, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for re-election to a third term. Cassidy's vote to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial has led to primary challenges against him. [1]

Contents

Following the enactment of House Bill 17 in 2024, this will be the first U.S. Senate election in Louisiana to utilize party primaries instead of a single blanket primary since 2010. [2] [3] Louisiana has been represented in the U.S. Senate exclusively by Republicans since 2015.

Background

Change of electoral system

In January 2024, governor Jeff Landry signed House Bill 17, sponsored by representative Julie Emerson, which eliminated the top-two Louisiana primary system in favor of partisan primaries in elections for Congress, the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, the Public Service Commission, and the Supreme Court. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primaries, but not members of other parties, including the Independent Party of Louisiana. The bill also indicated the use of runoff elections if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primary. The law is to take effect beginning with the 2026 elections, making this election the first in which Louisiana will elect a U.S. senator using this system since 2010; the top-two primary was first implemented in congressional elections in 1978. [2]

Primary challenge to Cassidy

Senator Bill Cassidy, who has held this seat since 2015, has gained notoriety within the Republican Party for his vocal criticism of President Donald Trump. Cassidy denounced the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack, accused participants of sedition, and voted to certify the 2020 election results [4] . He was one of seven Senate Republicans to vote to convict Trump for incitement of insurrection during his second impeachment, prompting the Republican Party of Louisiana to censure him. [5] During Trump’s 2024 campaign, Cassidy publicly opposed his candidacy, citing Trump’s four criminal indictments. [6] [7]

Cassidy’s stance has led analysts to view him as vulnerable to a right-wing primary challenge. Early speculation included Congressman Clay Higgins [3] , a Trump supporter, who ultimately declined to run [8] . On January 18, 2026, Trump endorsed Julia Letlow [9] , who officially entered the race two days later. [10]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Bill Cassidy
U.S. senators
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
John Fleming
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Julia Letlow
Executive branch officials
Statewide officials
Local officials
Blake Miguez (withdrawn)
State legislators

Fundraising

Italics indicated a withdrew or declined candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bill Cassidy (R)$11,729,417$3,262,575$10,104,519
John Fleming (R)$8,718,121$6,602,209$2,115,984
Julia Letlow (R)$2,004,227$905,934$2,445,060
Source: Federal Election Commission [29]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Bill
Cassidy		John
Fleming		Julia
Letlow		Other/
Undecided [a] 		Margin
Race to the WH [30] through March 12, 2026March 18, 202626.0%22.8%23.1%28.4%Cassidy +2.9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Cassidy		John
Fleming		Julia
Letlow		Blake
Miguez		Eric
Skrmetta		OtherUndecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [31] March 11–12, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%26%19%27%––1% [c] 27%
34%–46%–––20%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [32] [A] March 7–10, 2026500 (LV)–35%21%24%––2% [d] 18%
45%–43%–––12%
BDPC [33] [34] [B] February 21–23, 2026600 (LV)–28%21%21%–––30%
34%–42%–––24%
32%43%––––25%
–36%27%–––37%
Quantus Insights (R) [35] February 23–24, 20261,428 (LV)± 2.8%20%34%25%–––21%
23%57%––––20%
27%–48%–––25%
–42%32%–––26%
Cor Strategies (R) [13] [C] February 20–24, 2026– (V)–30%17%15%––14% [e] 24%
JMC Analytics & Polling [36] [D] February 14–16, 2026645 (LV)± 3.9%22%26%25%––1% [c] 26%
28%48%––––24%
–40%31%–––29%
February 13, 2026Skrmetta withdraws
February 3, 2026Miguez withdraws, runs for Letlow's House seat
BDPC [37] [B] January 20–22, 2026600 (LV)–21%14%27%5%–6% [f] 27%
28%45%––––23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [38] [37] [A] January 20–22, 2026600 (LV)–32%16%21%9%1%0% [g] 19%
40%–46%–––14%
January 20, 2026Letlow enters the race
JMC Analytics & Polling [39] [D] January 12–14, 2026650 (LV)± 3.8%22%23%–––16% [h] 39%
26%44%––––30%
JMC Analytics & Polling [40] [D] October 15–17, 2025610 (LV)± 4.0%23%25%–––17% [i] 35%
29%40%––––31%
Ragnar Research Partners (R) [41] [A] April 14–16, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%45%28%–––3% [j] 34%
JMC Analytics & Polling [42] [D] February 24–26, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%27%40%––––33%
27%29%–6%2%–36%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Cassidy		Clay
Higgins		John
Fleming		Julia
Letlow		Blake
Miguez		Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R) [43] [E] March 6–10, 20251,068 (LV)± 2.9%24%31%17%20%4%4%
33%––55%–12%
28%39%25%–3%5%
28%42%25%––5%
32%61%–––7%
34%–51%––15%
37%–––42%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Cassidy		Clay
Higgins		John
Fleming		Garret
Graves		Eric
Skrmetta		Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R) [43] [E] August 12–14, 20241,062 (LV)± 2.9%27%36%12%23%2%–
36%44%16%–4%–
–45%22%29%4%–
41%––59%––
43%57%––––
–56%–44%––
48%–52%–––

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Did not file

Declined

Fundraising

Italics indicated a withdrew or declined candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jamie Davis (D)$16,865$173$16,692
Source: Federal Election Commission [29]

Third-party candidates

America Party

Filed paperwork

  • Jamie "Kim" LaBranche, write-in candidate [50]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [51] Solid RAugust 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report [52] Solid ROctober 14, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [53] Safe RAugust 12, 2025
Race To The WH [54] Safe RSeptember 4, 2025

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. 1 2 Mark Spencer with 1%
  4. ↑ Mark Spencer with 2%
  5. ↑ Mark Spencer and "Another candidate" with 7%
  6. ↑ "Other candidates" with 6%
  7. ↑ Kathy Seiden with 0%
  8. ↑ "The remaining ballot tested candidates are getting a combined vote of 16%"
  9. ↑ "Includes five candidates, either announced or anticipated"
  10. ↑ Randall Arrington with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Cassidy's campaign
  2. 1 2 Poll conducted for Advanced Strategies Inc., which supports Letlow
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Pelican Institute
  4. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Fleming's campaign
  5. 1 2 Poll conducted on behalf of Clay Higgins

References

  1. 1 2 Hilburn, Greg (January 30, 2024). "Bill Cassidy discusses reelection plans while blistering Louisiana closed party primary law". The Times . Shreveport . Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  2. 1 2 Muller, Wesley (January 19, 2024). "Gov. Landry, lawmakers disrupt how Louisiana has voted for nearly 50 years". Louisiana Illuminator . Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  3. 1 2 Bridges, Tyler (January 28, 2024). "Bill Cassidy faces uphill battle to win reelection but independents can still vote for him". The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate . Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  4. ↑ Atoms, Greg (January 8, 2021). "Senator Bill Cassidy Says Pro-Trump Rioters Committed Sedition". KEEL . Retrieved January 10, 2021.
  5. ↑ Mena, Kelly; Merica, Dan (February 13, 2021). "Louisiana Republican Party censures Cassidy following vote to convict Trump". CNN . Retrieved February 14, 2021.
  6. ↑ Yang, Maya (March 17, 2024). "Republican Bill Cassidy derides Trump and calls 2024 race 'sorry state of affairs'". The Guardian . Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  7. ↑ Concepcion, Summer (August 20, 2023). "GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy says Trump should drop out of the 2024 presidential race". NBC News . Retrieved August 20, 2023.
  8. 1 2 Vakil, Caroline (March 20, 2025). "Higgins turns down run for Cassidy's Louisiana Senate seat". The Hill . Retrieved March 20, 2025.
  9. ↑ Hill, Meredith Lee; Carney, Jordain. "Louisiana's Letlow prepares Senate bid after Trump endorsement". Politico. Retrieved January 19, 2026.
  10. ↑ Beaumont, Thomas; Barrow, Bill. "Rep. Julia Letlow launches primary against Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana". ABC News. Associated Press. Retrieved January 21, 2026.
  11. ↑ Purdy, Domenic (December 4, 2024). "Treasurer John Fleming announces bid for Bill Cassidy's Senate seat in 2026". WBRZ-TV . Retrieved December 4, 2024.
  12. ↑ Howard, Andrew; Doherty, Erin; Lee Hill, Meredith (January 20, 2026). "Letlow launches Trump-backed Senate bid against Cassidy". Politico . Retrieved January 20, 2026.
  13. 1 2 Petite, Sydney (March 3, 2026). "NEW POLL: Louisiana Voters Sound the Alarm on Rising Costs, Demand School Choice Funding and Legal Reform as Legislative Session Begins; Carnival Season Debate Adds Local Flavor". Pelican Institute . Retrieved March 5, 2026.
  14. ↑ Vakil, Caroline (January 22, 2026). "Louisiana Republican drops bid for Cassidy seat after Trump-backed candidate enters race". The Hill. Retrieved January 22, 2026.
  15. ↑ Dick, Cooper (February 3, 2026). "State Senator ends Senate campaign to run for Congress". Reveille. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
  16. 1 2 "Kathy Seiden, St. Tammany Council member, exits U.S. Senate race, endorses Julia Letlow". The Advocate. February 3, 2026. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
  17. 1 2 Bruhl, Allison (February 13, 2026). "Louisiana Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta drops US Senate bid, backs Julia Letlow". WGNO. Retrieved February 14, 2026.
  18. ↑ "Another Republican says he is entering the race to succeed Julia Letlow as District 5 Congressperson". WBRZ-TV . January 22, 2026. Retrieved January 22, 2026.
  19. 1 2 Mckendry, Nolan (September 2, 2025). "Cassidy touts endorsements, campaign momentum". The Center Square . Retrieved September 8, 2025. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., have since thrown their support behind him...
  20. ↑ "Senator Cassidy earns key conservative endorsement from State Senate Committee Chair Beth Mizell". Livingston Parish News . August 14, 2025. Retrieved September 8, 2025.
  21. 1 2 Hilburn, Greg (November 21, 2024). "Senator Bill Cassidy flexes 2026 election muscles ahead of potential MAGA challengers". The Times . Retrieved November 21, 2024.
  22. ↑ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
  23. ↑ "Leading Nat'l Pro-Life Group Endorses Senator Bill Cassidy for Re-Election". sbaprolife.org. January 7, 2026. Retrieved January 7, 2026.
  24. 1 2 3 Soellner, Mica; Cohen, Max. "Fleming makes his pro-Trump case against Cassidy". Punchbowl News . Retrieved March 7, 2025.
  25. ↑ Vedros, Colin (August 28, 2025). "Elbert Guillory joins John Fleming's Senate run as campaign director". KALB-TV . Retrieved September 4, 2025.
  26. ↑ Burruss, Adam (January 17, 2025). "President Trump endorses Rep. Julia Letlow for potential Senate candidacy". WBRZ .
  27. ↑ Hilburn, Greg. "Trump, Landry loom large as Cassidy, Letlow clash in Louisiana Senate primary". The Shreveport Times. Retrieved February 14, 2026.
  28. ↑ Hutchinson, Piper (January 25, 2025). "State lawmaker claims Bill Cassidy revoked his Washington Mardi Gras ball tickets over politics". Louisiana Illuminator . Retrieved January 25, 2025.
  29. 1 2 "2026 Election United States Senate - Louisiana". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  30. ↑ "2026 Senate Polling Average". Race to the WH. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  31. ↑ Hilburn, Greg (March 17, 2026). "Julia Letlow poll has her leading Louisiana Senate race, Trump influence". Shreveport Times . Retrieved March 17, 2026.
  32. ↑ Yoshonis, Scott (March 12, 2026). "Sen. Cassidy poll shows double-digit lead over Letlow, Fleming in party primary". KLFY-TV . Retrieved March 12, 2026.
  33. ↑ Bridges, Tyler (March 5, 2026). "Bill Cassidy's allies moved fast to attack Julia Letlow. Here's how it's playing out" . The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate. Archived from the original on March 5, 2026. Retrieved March 8, 2026.
  34. ↑ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (March 6, 2026). "Morning Digest: A GOP congresswoman thought she got a lifeline. Now it might be the end of the line". The Downballot. Retrieved March 8, 2026.
  35. ↑ "Louisiana's Republican Senate Primary: Engaged and Moving On". Quantus Insights. February 25, 2026. Retrieved February 25, 2026.
  36. ↑ "LA-Sen: JMC (R) for John Fleming (Feb. 2026)". JMC Analytics. February 18, 2026. Retrieved February 19, 2026– via DocumentCloud.
  37. 1 2 Bridges, Tyler (February 2, 2026). "As Bill Cassidy allies attack Julia Letlow in U.S. Senate race, see what polls are showing". The Times-Picayune . Retrieved February 3, 2026.
  38. ↑ Larkin, Katie (January 27, 2026). "State of the Race: Cassidy First on Air, Massive Resource Advantage". Bill Cassidy for U.S. Senate. Retrieved January 28, 2026.
  39. ↑ Collins, Noah (January 19, 2026). "NEW POLL: Bill Cassidy Falling Further Behind in Head-To-Head Matchup Against John Fleming". John Fleming for U.S. Senate. Retrieved January 27, 2026.
  40. ↑ Collins, Noah (October 20, 2025). "Fleming Leads the Pack in Louisiana Senate Race — Powered by Grassroots, Not Special Interests". John Fleming for U.S. Senate. Retrieved October 23, 2025.
  41. ↑ Lacen, Marlo (May 2, 2025). "Bill Cassidy leads Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, new poll shows". KTAL-TV . Retrieved May 2, 2025.
  42. ↑ "Fleming To Cassidy: Hey, Cool Poll. I've Got One, Too!". The Hayride. March 5, 2025. Retrieved March 6, 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  43. 1 2 "LA US Senate Republican Primary Poll, Aug '24 and Mar '25". The Trafalgar Group. March 25, 2025. Retrieved March 28, 2025.
  44. 1 2 "Rancor ratchets up between Cassidy, Letlow with the US Senate field set". Louisiana Illuminator. February 13, 2026. Retrieved February 17, 2026.
  45. ↑ Grant, Jalon (December 12, 2025). "Concordia Parish native announces U.S. Senate bid in Louisiana". WNTZ-TV . Retrieved December 12, 2025.
  46. ↑ "Two Democrats say they intend to run against Bill Cassidy in 2026 senatorial election". WBRZ . December 12, 2025. Retrieved December 12, 2025.
  47. ↑ Alford, Jeremy; Jacobs, David (December 30, 2025). "'LaPolitics': Democratic candidates slowly emerging in US Senate race". Baton Rouge Business Report . Retrieved January 1, 2026.
  48. ↑ Bridges, Tyler (October 10, 2025). "John Bel Edwards won't run for U.S. Senate, dashing Louisiana Democrats' hopes". NOLA. Retrieved October 10, 2025.
  49. ↑ Bridges, Tyler (October 23, 2025). "Louisiana Sen. Jay Luneau won't run for U.S. Senate. Democrats are still seeking a candidate". The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate . Retrieved October 28, 2025.
  50. ↑ "LaBranche, Jamie FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY FILING FEC-1904219".
  51. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  52. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  53. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  54. ↑ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.

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