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Opinion polling for the 2026 South Australian state election

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In the lead-up to the 2026 South Australian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individual electoral district results.

Contents

Voting intention

Graphical summary

A graph showing the primary vote opinion polling in the lead-up to the 2026 South Australian state election, with LOESS regression. A Graph Showing the Primary Vote in the Lead Up to the 2026 South Australian State Election.svg
A graph showing the primary vote opinion polling in the lead-up to the 2026 South Australian state election, with LOESS regression.
A graph showing the two-party preferred opinion polling in the lead-up to the 2026 South Australian state election, with LOESS regression. A Graph Showing the Two-Party Preferred opinion polling in the leadup to the 2026 South Australian Election.svg
A graph showing the two-party preferred opinion polling in the lead-up to the 2026 South Australian state election, with LOESS regression.

House of Assembly

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB ONP
12–18 Mar 2026 Newspoll [1] 1,04840%16%12%22%N/a10%N/aN/aN/a
12–18 Mar 2026DemosAU [2] 1,24237%17%11%23%N/a12%N/aN/aN/a
9–17 Mar 2026 YouGov [3] 1,26538%19%12%22%5%4%59%41%N/a
59%N/a41%
16 Mar 2026Resolve [4] 1,11232%18%10%28%N/a11%N/aN/aN/a
6–16 Mar 2026Fox & Hedgehog [5] 1,00838%18%11%21%N/a12%60%40%N/a
59%N/a41%
N/a53%47%
19–23 Feb 2026 Roy Morgan [6] 2,17235%16.5%11%28%6.5%3%61%39%N/a
59%N/a41%
N/a52.5%47.5%
11–17 Feb 2026Newspoll [7] 1,05744%14%12%24%N/a6%N/aN/aN/a
6–17 Feb 2026YouGov [8] [9] 1,21737%20%13%22%6%2%59%41%N/a
60%N/a40%
31 Jan – 16 Feb 2026DemosAU [10] [11] [12] 1,07043%18%12%19%N/a8%N/aN/aN/a
31 Jan – 8 Feb 2026Fox & Hedgehog [13] 90440%19%12%20%N/a9%61%39%N/a
63%N/a37%
N/a53%47%
5–8 Dec 2025 Ashton Hurn replaces Vincent Tarzia as Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
24 Nov – 5 Dec 2025Fox & Hedgehog [14] 1,00041%21%12%13%N/a13%61%39%N/a
6–15 Oct 2025DemosAU [15] [16] [17] 1,00647%21%13%N/aN/a19%66%34%N/a
15–28 May 2025YouGov [18] 1,00448%21%14%7%N/a10%67%33%N/a
18–23 Feb 2025DemosAU [19] [20] 90343%30%10%N/aN/a17%59%41%N/a
6–29 Aug 2024Wolf & Smith [21] [22] 85641%28%11%5%N/a15% [a] 60%40%N/a
12 Aug 2024 Vincent Tarzia becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
11–20 Sep 2022 Dynata [23] 61634%34%13%5%N/a14% [b] 53%47%N/a
19 Mar 2022 2022 election 40.0%35.7%9.1%2.6%7.3%5.3%54.6%45.1%—

Legislative Council

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP FFP LCP AJP SAB RC AFP OTH
31 Jan – 16 Feb 2026DemosAU [10] [11] [12] 1,07038%15%11%21%4%2%3%1%2%0%3% [c]
6–15 Oct 2025DemosAU [15] [16] [17] 1,00637%17%11%12%3%4%4%4%2%3%4% [d]
11–20 Sep 2022Dynata [23] 61635%32%13%4%N/aN/aN/a7%N/aN/a9%
19 Mar 2022 2022 election 37.0%34.4%9.0%4.2%3.1%2.1%1.5%1.0%0.9%0.9%5.9%

Approval polling

Leadership approval

DateFirmPreferred Premier Malinauskas Speirs/Tarzia/Hurn
MalinauskasTarzia/HurnUndecidedNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedUndecidedNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedUndecidedNet
12–18 Mar 2026DemosAU [2] 56%21%23%35%49%20%31%+29%21%21%58%±0%
6–16 Mar 2026Fox & Hedgehog [5] 55%22%23%33%52%19%26%+33%25%15%36%+10%
11–17 Feb 2026Newspoll [7] 64%20%16%44%64%28%8%+36%55%33%12%+22%
6–17 Feb 2026YouGov [8] 67%19%14%48%67%27%6%+40%39%35%26%+4%
31 Jan – 16 Feb 2026DemosAU [10] [11] 56%22%22%34%51%18%31%+33%24%26%50%–2%
31 Jan – 8 Feb 2026Fox & Hedgehog [13] 54%22%24%32%52%21%22%+31%20%13%37%+7%
5–8 Dec 2025 Ashton Hurn replaces Vincent Tarzia as Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
24 Nov – 5 Dec 2025Fox & Hedgehog [14] 54%18%28%36%51%19%25%+32%17%25%36%–8%
6–15 Oct 2025DemosAU [15] [16] [17] 58%19%23%39%N/aN/aN/aN/aN/aN/aN/aN/a
15–28 May 2025YouGov [18] 72%14%14%58%70%18%12%+52%22%31%47%–9%
18–23 Feb 2025DemosAU [19] 51%23%26%28%N/aN/aN/aN/aN/aN/aN/aN/a
12 Aug 2024 Vincent Tarzia becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
11–20 Sep 2022Dynata [23] N/aN/aN/aN/a74%13%13%+61%51%19%30%+32%

Party approval

DateFirmSample
size		 Labor Liberal One Nation Family First
Pos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.NetPos.Neg.Net
6–16 March 2026Fox & Hedgehog [5] 1,00843%25%+18%23%36%–13%40%31%+9%N/aN/aN/a
31 Jan – 8 Feb 2026Fox & Hedgehog [13] 90445%28%+17%25%37%–12%36%30%+6%N/aN/aN/a
24 Nov – 5 Dec 2025Fox & Hedgehog [14] 1,00043%27%+16%25%36%–11%33%33%0%26%24%+2%

Sub-state polling

Inner Adelaide

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB ONP
12–18 Mar 2026DemosAU [2] N/a44%19%13%15%N/a9%N/aN/aN/a
31 Jan – 8 Feb 2026Fox & Hedgehog [13] N/a44%17%14%17%N/a8%65%35%N/a
67%N/a33%
N/a54%46%
24 Nov – 5 Dec 2025Fox & Hedgehog [14] N/a51%18%9%11%N/a11%67%33%N/a

Outer Adelaide

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB ONP
12–18 Mar 2026DemosAU [2] N/a38%15%10%24%N/a13%N/aN/aN/a
31 Jan – 8 Feb 2026Fox & Hedgehog [13] N/a46%17%12%18%N/a7%66%34%N/a
67%N/a33%
N/a53%47%
24 Nov – 5 Dec 2025Fox & Hedgehog [14] N/a38%22%12%16%N/a12%58%42%N/a

Adelaide

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB ONP
19–23 Feb 2026Roy Morgan [6] N/a37.5%15%14%25.5%5%3%65.5%34.5%N/a
63.5%N/a36.5%
N/a54%46%

Regional South Australia

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB ONP
12–18 Mar 2026DemosAU [2] N/a23%15%9%39%N/a14%N/aN/aN/a
19–23 Feb 2026Roy Morgan [6] N/a29%19%4.5%33.5%10%4%48.5%51.5%N/a
47%N/a53%
N/a48%52%
31 Jan – 8 Feb 2026Fox & Hedgehog [13] N/a29%24%9%26%N/a12%51%49%N/a
52%N/a48%
N/a52%48%
24 Nov – 5 Dec 2025Fox & Hedgehog [14] N/a33%24%15%14%N/a14%56%44%N/a

Individual seat polling

Mount Gambier

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2CP vote
Fatchen
(IND)		 LIB ALP ONP GRN FFP Scholes
(IND)		OTHFatchen
(IND)		 LIB Bell
(IND)
19 Jan 2026uComms [24] 30023.1%12.1%17.7%10.8%5.0%N/a7.7%23.7% [e] 61.7%38.3%N/a
19 Mar 2022 2022 election —29.0%20.6%——4.7%—45.7%—36.9%63.1%

Notes

  1. ↑ Including 3% for Family First and 12% for other parties.
  2. ↑ Including 6% for SA-Best and 8% for other parties.
  3. ↑ 1% for the Libertarian Party, 1% for Better Community and 1% for Fair Go.
  4. ↑ 2% for the National Party, 1% for Fair Go, 1% for United Voice and 0% for Better Community.
  5. ↑ Including undecided.

References

  1. ↑ Penberthy, David (2026-03-19). "One Nation surge splits conservative vote, handing Labor election victory" . The Australian . Sydney: News Corp Australia. ISSN   1038-8761 . Retrieved 2026-03-19.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Karakulak, Helen (19 March 2026). "Who is voting One Nation? Exclusive SA polling reveals orange hotspots". InDaily. Archived from the original on 19 March 2026. Retrieved 19 March 2026.
  3. ↑ "Labor set for record win in South Australia as One Nation surges to second: YouGov poll". YouGov. 19 March 2026. Archived from the original on 20 March 2026. Retrieved 20 March 2026.
  4. ↑ Harris, Rob (2026-03-19). "The South Australian Liberals aren't just staring down defeat. They're facing a wipeout" . The Sydney Morning Herald . Sydney: Nine Entertainment . Retrieved 2026-03-20.
  5. 1 2 3 "South Australian Voter Sentiment Survey March 2026" (PDF). Melbourne: Fox & Hedgehog. 2026-03-17. Retrieved 2026-03-17.
  6. 1 2 3 "Labor set for landslide South Australian election victory in South Australian Election" (PDF). Roy Morgan Research. 27 February 2026. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 February 2026. Retrieved 27 February 2026.
  7. 1 2 Beaumont, Adrian (20 February 2026). "SA Newspoll shows Liberal wipeout likely; Victorian Morgan poll puts One Nation first on primaries". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 21 February 2026. Retrieved 23 February 2026.
  8. 1 2 Bowe, William (20 February 2026). "South Australia polls: Newspoll and YouGov". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 23 February 2026. Retrieved 23 February 2026.
  9. ↑ Daftari, Amir [@AnalyseDis] (19 February 2026). "My team's first South Australian 2026 state election poll" (Tweet). Retrieved 19 February 2026– via X (formerly Twitter).
  10. 1 2 3 Karakulak, Helen (23 February 2026). "Exclusive polling results reveal surprise election players". InDaily. Archived from the original on 23 February 2026. Retrieved 23 February 2026.
  11. 1 2 3 "Who do SA voters like most? Exclusive polling reveals top-rated pollie talent". Indailysa. Archived from the original on 24 February 2026. Retrieved 24 February 2026.
  12. 1 2 "Exclusive polling reveals battle for Libs to hold Opposition status". Indailysa. Archived from the original on 26 February 2026. Retrieved 26 February 2026.
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "South Australian Voter Sentiment Survey". Fox & Hedgehog. 10 February 2026. Archived from the original on 23 February 2026. Retrieved 23 February 2026.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "South Australian Voter Sentiment Survey". Fox & Hedgehog. 6 December 2025. Archived from the original on 10 January 2026. Retrieved 10 January 2026.
  15. 1 2 3 "Soaring SA Labor vote pushes Libs to the edge". DemosAU. 21 October 2025. Archived from the original on 21 October 2025. Retrieved 21 October 2025.
  16. 1 2 3 "South Australian Poll" (PDF). DemosAU. 21 October 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 21 October 2025. Retrieved 21 October 2025.
  17. 1 2 3 Gilchrist, Charlie (21 October 2025). "Top pollie's seat in doubt in exclusive pre-election polling". InDaily. Archived from the original on 21 October 2025. Retrieved 21 October 2025.
  18. 1 2 Bowe, William (2025-06-21). "YouGov: 67-33 to Labor in South Australia". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 2025-06-21.
  19. 1 2 Bowe, William (3 March 2025). "DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor in South Australia". The Poll Bludger. Archived from the original on 3 March 2025. Retrieved 3 March 2025.
  20. ↑ "South Australia Poll: Strong lead for SA LABOR". demosau.com. 2025-03-03. Retrieved 2025-03-20.
  21. ↑ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). Wolf & Smith. August 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on 19 February 2025. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  22. ↑ Bowe, William (8 September 2024). "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 2024-09-09.
  23. 1 2 3 Richards, Stephanie (28 September 2022). "Poll shows Labor's honeymoon not over". InDaily . Archived from the original on 20 April 2024. Retrieved 23 April 2023.
  24. ↑ "Poll paints early election picture". The SE Voice. 3 February 2026. Archived from the original on 8 February 2026. Retrieved 8 February 2026.
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