In the event that an elected Senedd member resigns during the term, they will be replaced by the member below them on their party's list rather than a by-election being held. In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, and had 60 members, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The new electoral system would be ready to be used only for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up.[15] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.[16]
Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women; however, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.[17]
Constituencies
Map of the 16 constituencies to be used for the election
On 2 February 2025, Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan said she would be open to a coalition with Plaid Cymru after the election "if needs must". She ruled out a coalition with Reform UK, as she thought there was a "red line on that one". She rejected the suggestion put to her that Welsh Labour was under threat at the election, explaining that there is "an international shift going on at the moment and we've got several months now to make sure people understand what's at stake here", and also called Reform an "English focused party" with "nothing Welsh about" them.[47] This election has been described as pivotal for the premiership of Keir Starmer.[48] Morgan warned that a "threat to the United Kingdom will become real" if Plaid and the Green Party gain a majority in the Senedd, calling for further devolution, calling it the "best way to lower the temperature and raise trust." [49]
A day later, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth similarly ruled out working with Reform, describing the two parties' worldviews as "fundamentally different."[50] In April 2025, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said his party "would work with any other Senedd party" and that the new voting system means "it's not going to be easy" to win an overall majority.[51]
On 21 March 2025, Plaid Cymru announced a pledge to introduce a weekly direct child benefit titled the 'Cynnal' payment,[52] which would share similarities to the Scottish Child Payment introduced by the Scottish Government. This was followed by a pledge on 10 October to expand universal childcare in Wales, bringing 20 hours of childcare a week for 48 weeks a year, eligible to all children aged 9 months to 4 years. [53]
After becoming the most popular party in opinion polls in early 2025, ap Iorwerth ruled out holding an independence referendum in a first term of a Plaid Cymru government, in contrast to the party's 2021manifesto, stating that they still kept a "long term ambition" of Welsh independence.[54]
On 27 and 28 February Plaid Cymru held their spring conference, and announced their plan for first 100 days in government which announced many of their policies before their full manifesto.[59]
On 1 March 2026, Eluned Morgan announced that if Welsh Labour wins the Senedd election they would spend £4 billion to build the "hospitals of the future".[60]
On 2 March 2026, the Welsh Conservatives launched their manifesto.[61] They proposed to build the M4 Relief Road, take 1 pence off the basic rate of income tax alongside scrapping business rates for small firms and re-establishing the Welsh Development Agency. The party also announced it's intention to reverse the 20mph national default speed limit, scrap the Nation of Sanctuary initiative, and place restrictions on wind farm developments.[62]
On 5 March 2026, Reform UK launched their Welsh manifesto in Newport, where Nigel Farage called the election a referendum on the Prime Minister's leadership.[64] The party pledged several policies that were similarly included in the Welsh Conservative manifesto, such as 1 pence income tax cuts, reversing of the default 20mph speed limit and scrapping the Nation of Sanctuary. The party also pledged to build the M4 relief road, intending to establish it as a toll road, make local people in Wales a priority for social housing, as well as proposing a ban on any new onshore wind farms.[65]
For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constituencies, each based on a pairing of two adjacent constituencies used for the UK Parliament since 2024. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Senedd using a system of proportional representation.[66][67]
Considering the polls from less than one year before the election, there have been 12 polls. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have both led in 5 and were tied in one of them, and Labour has led in 1. Of the polls with a sample size of 1,000 people or more, there have been 5, with Plaid leading in 4 of them, with Reform UK leading in 1.
Ahead of the election, various modelling efforts have produced seat projections for the next Senedd election. Below are selected projections and the result of the previous election for comparison.
↑The British Polling Council states that a sample size of at least 1,000 is the "established norm" for any poll in Great Britain. However, there is no "minimum" acceptable sample size.[68]
↑Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the current Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply. Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.
