Iran's relations with the United States and Israel

A US- and UK-backed coup d'état in 1953 deposed the democratically elected Iranian prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh due to his nationalization of the oil industry and strengthened the rule of the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. ^{[135] [136] [137]} Israel maintained close ties with Iran as part of their alliance of the periphery strategy. ^[138] Resentment of the Shah's deference to Western interests and his autocratic rule led to the 1979 revolution in which he was overthrown, ^{[135] [139]} after which Iran became an Islamic republic. The new regime, seeing both the United States and Israel (themselves close allies) as meddling in the region, and viewing Israel as an occupier of Palestinian land, severed diplomatic ties with both nations and held the American embassy staff hostage for over a year. ^{[135] [138]}

During the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s, the US provided economic, intelligence, and indirect military support to Iraq. Toward the end of the war in 1988, a US warship was struck by an Iranian mine; in response, the US attacked Iran's navy. A few months later, the US mistakenly shot down a civilian Iranian flight. ^[140] Throughout this period, Iran started a ballistic missile program to deter Iraqi missile attacks on Iranian cities and to compensate for its lack of modern air force due to sanctions. ^[141] Iran began to engage in proxy conflicts in the region, backing Hezbollah in Lebanon. In 2002, Iran's nuclear program was revealed, which was met with economic sanctions and a US–Israel cyberattack on Iran. ^[140] In the 2000s, Iran began supporting militias fighting the US in Iraq. These proxies became part of an informal Axis of Resistance committed primarily to countering the influence of the US and Israel in the Middle East. The conflict between the US and Iran became direct in January 2020 when President Trump, during his first term, ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force. ^{[135] [142]}

Tensions between Iran and the US and Israel further escalated following the October 7 attacks on Israel and the start of the Gaza war in 2023, during which Israel weakened Iranian-backed militias across the Middle East, including Hamas in Gaza, ^[s] Hezbollah, and others. Israeli strikes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran were met with strikes on Israel in April and October. Israel waged the Twelve-Day War on Iran in June 2025, which included an American airstrike aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear facilities. ^[145]

Iran nuclear issue

Iran's AMAD Project was suspended pursuant to Ali Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons in 2003. Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran at the time and one of the world's most senior Shiite religious leaders, issued his religious ruling banning the development of nuclear weapons of any kind. ^{[146] [147]} Iran has said it is not seeking nuclear weapons, and that its enrichment efforts are to generate nuclear power for civilian use. ^[148] Some UK and US analysts concluded Iran is pursuing a strategy of nuclear hedging. ^[149] UN Security Council (UNSC) concerns about the nuclear program of Iran from 2006 ^[t] led to the creation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. ^[153] The US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 ^{[154] [139]} and re-imposed sanctions on Iran, as part of a US turn toward the use of force rather than diplomacy in its relations with Iran. The first Trump administration adopted a "maximum pressure" strategy. ^[155] The Biden administration did not relax the economic sanctions against Iran, and instead implemented more measures. ^[156]

The second Trump administration reimposed the "maximum pressure" approach on Iran. ^{[157] [139]} Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent labelled the collapse of the Iranian currency in December 2025 as the "grand culmination" of this strategy. ^{[158] [159]} At the State of the Union Address on 24 February 2026, President Trump stated that Iran had restarted its nuclear program and was developing missiles capable of striking the US. ^[160] A few days later, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had stored highly enriched uranium in an underground facility that was undamaged in the previous round of fighting. ^{[161] [162]} The IAEA said that it had no evidence that Iran has an organized nuclear weapons program or is building an atomic bomb, ^{[163] [164] [165]} but could not be sure that Iran's broader nuclear program was "exclusively peaceful" at the time of reportage as the agency was denied access. ^[166]

Israel nuclear issue

Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, with a stockpile estimated between 90 and 400 nuclear warheads. ^[178] Israel is the only nuclear-armed country that does not officially acknowledge its nuclear weapons capability. ^[179] Some scholars have argued that Israel's nuclear weapons have incentivized Iran to develop its own nuclear program, seen as maintaining a balance of nuclear deterrence, or causing a regional nuclear arms race. ^{[180] [181] [182] [183]} Citing security threats, Israel rejects international calls to accede to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons or to participate in negotiations of a Middle East nuclear weapon free zone. ^{[184] [185] [186]} This has frustrated both US ^[179] and UK ^[187] diplomatic efforts on such a zone. Scholars also suggest US tacit acceptance of the Israeli nuclear weapons capability is seen as a double standard that undermines its diplomatic credibility in Middle East nonproliferation negotiations. ^{[188] [179]}

Anti-government protests in Iran and initial US deployments

Beginning in late December 2025, massive nationwide anti-government protests erupted in Iran. Originally driven by discontent over the economic crisis, they escalated into explicit calls for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic government. The protests became the largest in scale since the 1979 revolution with 5 million Iranians protesting. ^{[189] [190]} The Iranian government responded with massacres of protesters, with the deadliest incidents occurring on 8 to 10 January 2026. ^[191] The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency stated it had documented at least 7,007 deaths and was reviewing an additional 11,744, ^[192] the Iranian government said it was 3,117, while various non-government affiliated Iranian health officials gave a figure of 32,000 deaths. ^{[193] [194]}

On 2 January 2026, Trump threatened a "locked and loaded" military intervention in Iran if the government decided to kill peaceful protesters. ^[195] On 13 January, he expressed support for Iranian anti-government protesters and pledged that "help is on the way" for them, ^[196] and later, on 23 January, Trump announced that a US "armada" was heading to the Middle East, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers. ^{[197] [198]} On 13 February, Trump ordered the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and its supporting warships to sail to the Middle East. ^[199]

2026 nuclear negotiations

On 6 February 2026, Iran and the US held indirect nuclear negotiations in Oman's capital, Muscat. Iran emphasized that progress depends on consultations back in capitals. ^[200] A second round of nuclear talks was scheduled in Geneva. ^[200] Between 15 and 20 February, Iran increased its oil exports to three times the normal rate, and reduced its oil storage. ^[201]

Just before the strikes began, on 27 February 2026, Omani foreign minister Badr Al-Busaidi said a "breakthrough" had been reached and Iran had agreed both to never stockpile enriched uranium and to full verification by the IAEA; ^[202] furthermore, Iran had agreed to irreversibly downgrade its current enriched uranium to "the lowest level possible". Al-Busaidi said peace was "within reach". ^{[203] [202]} Talks were expected to resume on 2 March. ^[202] After the US and Israel attacked Iran, Al-Busaidi said that he was dismayed and that "active and serious negotiations" had been undermined. ^[204]

US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said Iran had begun recent nuclear talks by insisting on its "inalienable right" to enrich uranium, rejecting a US proposal for zero enrichment, and even boasting that its 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium could produce 11 nuclear bombs. ^{[205] [206]} Diplomats with knowledge of the Iran talks said Witkoff undermined the negotiations by misrepresenting the key exchange, stating that the US negotiators misunderstood the Iranian proposal, including Iran's offer to suspend uranium enrichment for several years and why Iran did not trust the US offer of nuclear fuel supplies. ^[207]

US military buildup

On 14 February, the US publicly began preparing its campaign. ^[208] By 19 February the US buildup was described as the largest in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. ^[209] Netanyahu called Trump on 23 February to inform him about Khamenei's upcoming meeting with his top advisors and its location. ^{[210] [211]} On 24 February, during the State of the Union Address, Trump accused Iran of reviving efforts to build nuclear weapons and advanced missile capabilities that could threaten the US, Europe, and US bases overseas. He warned that the US was prepared to act if necessary. ^[212] American intelligence reports suggested that alleged threats of long-range Iranian ballistic missiles were unfounded, with such capabilities requiring up until 2035 should Iran have decided to pursue the project. ^[213]

On 25 February 2026, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that a "historic" agreement with the United States to avert military conflict was "within reach" ahead of renewed talks in Geneva. Araghchi emphasized that diplomacy must be prioritized to avoid further escalation. Despite high tensions and a significant US military buildup in the region, Araghchi reiterated on social media that Iran holds a "crystal clear" position against developing nuclear weapons, while defending its right to peaceful nuclear technology. ^[214]

According to The Wall Street Journal , US senator Lindsey Graham made the most compelling case to Trump for an assault on Iran. ^[215] According to The Washington Post , crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman had multiple phone calls with Trump urging him to attack Iran, ^[216] and Trump's decision to attack Iran came after the Saudi Arabian and Israeli governments lobbied him repeatedly to make the move. ^[217] The claim was denied by Saudi Arabia. ^[218]

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu successfully lobbied the Trump administration for military intervention.

Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly urged Trump to strike Iran despite public calls for diplomacy.

The Guardian reported a few days before the attack that the decision would be determined by the outcome of a meeting in Geneva, in which the US would be led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. ^[219] On the morning of the attack, some of Iran's top military and intelligence leaders, including Khamenei, were gathered together in the national security council offices for meetings. ^[220] US and Israeli military intelligence officers identified that the senior Iranian leaders would gather at three meetings that could be struck simultaneously. ^[221] Khamenei and his officials were above ground and in broad daylight. It is unknown how US and Israeli leadership were aware of their exact location. ^[222]

A few days before the attack, senior advisors for the Trump administration said it would be better if Israel strikes Iran first, so that the United States would have a better justification for going to war after Iran retaliates. ^[223] US secretary of state Marco Rubio later disclosed that the initial US attack on Iran was due to an Israeli intention to attack Iranian leadership, which would have jeopardized US forces in the region. ^[224] He also stated that the United States may have followed Israel into the conflict; ^[225] though Trump disagreed. ^[226]

First week (28 February – 6 March)

It has been suggested that portions of this article be split out into another articletitled First week of the 2026 Iran war . (Discuss) (March 2026)

Further information: Assassination of Ali Khamenei, 2026 Lebanon war, 2026 Minab school attack, and 2026 Lamerd sports hall attack

On 27 February at 3:38 p.m. EST (11:08 p.m. IRST), Donald Trump, traveling on Air Force One to Corpus Christi, Texas, gave the order to proceed with Operation Epic Fury. ^{[227] [220]} US missiles, drones, and Israeli fighter jets began striking Iran the next day, around 9:45 a.m. IRST (1:15 a.m. EST). ^{[228] [229]} The strikes took place during active negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. ^{[230] [231]} The attack coincided with the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan, when Muslim people practice fasting between dawn and sunset. ^[232]

The operation was codenamed Operation Roaring Lion ^[v] by Israel. ^[233] The usage of the word lion refers to both pre-revolutionary Iran and the Jewish people. ^[234] The Israeli Air Force (IAF) said that it had struck 500 military targets in western and central Iran in the largest combat sortie in its history. ^[235] Iranian naval vessels were also targeted. ^[236] Israel later said its initial strikes used over 1,200 bombs in 24 hours. ^[237] A US official said dozens of US strikes were carried out by planes based around the Middle East and from one or more aircraft carriers. ^[238]

According to Iran International, quoting the Iranian Students' News Agency, thousands of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel, including several senior officials, ^[239] were killed or wounded^{[ vague ]} as several military bases were attacked. ^[240] Several strikes hit Tehran's Pasteur Street district, where the presidential palace is, and the National Security Council. ^{[241] [242]}

The strikes were coupled with cyberattacks on Iranian infrastructure, media, and phone apps, with messages calling on Iranians to rise up against their government. ^{[243] [244] [245]} The cyberattacks resulted in a near-total internet blackout in Iran, lasting over 60 hours with connectivity dropping to as low as 1% of normal levels, disrupting government communications, state media, and public services. ^{[246] [244]} Iran has since restricted internet access to its people, allowing access only for government-approved users. ^{[247] [248]}

Israeli military officials said months-long planning preceded their strikes, allowing them to pinpoint their targets, attain "tactical surprise", and gain US support. ^[249] Attacking during the morning, rather than at night which was when most of Israel's previous attacks on Iran took place, added to the element of surprise. ^[222] After the strikes began, Israel declared a state of emergency, citing expectation of an Iranian retaliation, and warned its citizens to remain in protected areas. ^{[250] [251]} Israel called up 20,000 reservists in addition to the 50,000 already on duty. ^[252] The Israeli Ministry of Health moved its hospital operations underground. ^[253] Israel warned Iranian civilians residing near military industries and infrastructure to evacuate immediately. ^[240]

At 2:30 a.m. EST on 28 February, Donald Trump released an eight-minute video statement on Truth Social, saying that the purpose of the US strikes in Iran was effectively^{[ vague ]} regime change. Trump said that Iran's "menacing activities" endangered the US and its allies. He cited the Iran hostage crisis, support for proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and its killings of protesters. ^[254] Trump cited Iran calling "Death to America" and its history of attacking US civilians and soldiers as evidence of Iran's intent against the United States. ^{[115] [255]} Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu both warned of the potential threat of nuclear weapons in Iran and called on the Iranian people to overthrow their government. ^{[254] [256]} The Times of Israel reported that Defense Minister Israel Katz labeled the strikes a "pre-emptive attack" intended to "remove threats to the State of Israel". ^[250] Iran rejected claims that it intended to attack the United States, citing the aggressive posture of the US armed forces as evidence. ^[122]

Iranian forces reacted within hours by launching missiles and drones. Iran codenamed its military response Operation True Promise IV. ^{[w] [x]} Iranian state media also dubbed the events as the Ramadan War, ^[y] a term similar to the one used by Egypt and Syria during the Yom Kippur War of 1973 against Israel. ^[257]

Iran struck Israeli targets in Tel Aviv and Haifa ^[258] as well as multiple countries throughout the Persian Gulf region. ^[259] Major targets included Bahrain's capital Manama, ^{[260] [261]} Kuwait International Airport, the United Arab Emirates' capital Abu Dhabi, ^{[262] [263]} Riyadh and Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia, ^[264] and Erbil International Airport and the US Consulate General in Erbil in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. ^[265]

Iran reported striking the US bases of Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, ^[266] Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, and the US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. ^[267] Local sources said Iran used Shahed drones, which are among the weapons most used by Iran and its proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. ^[268] On 1 or 2 March, Iran struck the radar bases for US THAAD missile defense systems in Jordan, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, destroying at least one of them. ^[269]

Iran's top security official, Ali Larijani, announced the Interim Leadership Council on 1 March and accused the US and Israel of trying to dismantle Iran. He warned "secessionist groups" of severe consequences if they take action. ^[270] Trump relayed to NBC News that "a large amount of leadership" in Iran had been killed. ^[271] Israel launched a new wave of strikes against Iranian targets. ^[270] Iran launched missiles and drones on Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. ^{[272] [273]} The United Kingdom initially reported there were strikes against Cyprus, ^{[274] [275]} but later confirmed that there were not. ^[276] Two oil tankers, the Palau-flagged Skylight and the Marshall Islands-flagged MKD VYOM, were targeted off the coast of Oman. ^{[277] [278] [279]} Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a standstill, ^[280] with 150 freight ships, including many oil tankers, stalled. ^[281]

To avert further Iranian strikes, the E3 (the UK, France, and Germany) resolved to back, if needed, "proportionate military defensive measures" against drones and ballistic missiles, signaling the potential for direct involvement. ^[282] British prime minister Keir Starmer said that US can use British bases for "defensive" strikes on Iran ^[283] and disclosed that Ukrainian and other specialists would aid Gulf efforts to foil Iranian drone strikes. ^[284] CNN reported that Saudi Crown Prince Salman, with US backing, vowed to employ military force against further Iranian incursions, calling Iranian strikes "cowardly" due to Saudi airspace being closed to US and Israeli attackers. ^[285] On 1 March, Trump announced that the US had accepted an Iranian proposal to further negotiations. ^[286] However, Ali Larijani subsequently ruled out talks. ^[287]

On 2 March, the US embassy in Kuwait was struck and subsequently closed indefinitely; no casualties were reported. ^{[288] [289]} The US-flagged tanker Stena Imperative and the Honduras-flagged tanker Athe Nova were also struck. ^[290] A senior IRGC official who is an advisor to the IRGC commander said he would set fire onto any ship coming through the Strait of Hormuz, and added that no oil will leave the area. ^[291] Qatar shot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers, making it the first nation to shoot down an Iranian aircraft in the conflict. ^[292] The Qatari Ministry of Defense announced that Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial Area were struck by two Iranian drones. ^[293] On 6 March, it was reported that according to satellite imagery analysis by both Bloomberg and the Energy Economics and Society Research Institute in Tokyo, Ras Laffan, the main gas facility in Qatar, appeared to have not been damaged before the "unprecedented shutdown" which sent fuel prices higher. ^[294]

The United States and Israel attacked the Natanz Nuclear Facility ^[295] and the Iranian media reported damage to the Khatam-al-Anbia and Gandhi hospitals. ^[296] A friendly fire incident took place when the pilot of an F/A-18 of the Kuwait Air Force shot down three US F-15E  fighters. ^{[297] [298] [299] [289]} Israel and Hezbollah exchanged strikes against one another. ^[300] Hezbollah began firing rockets and missiles on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Khamenei. ^{[301] [302]} Hezbollah later claimed that the attack was a "defensive act" after over a year of Israeli attacks despite a truce. ^[303] It added that it restarted fighting to force Israel to stop its aggression and evacuate from seized Lebanese territories, emphasizing that the move was unrelated to the war. ^[304] Lebanon banned military activities by Hezbollah after the attacks. ^[305] An IDF spokesperson issued an emergency statement stating that the attack is to be considered "an official declaration of war by Hezbollah", vowing to "neutralize" the threat. ^[300] Israel struck southern Lebanon, ^{[306] [83] [307]} Beirut, and the Beqaa Valley. ^[300] The IDF said that it killed the head of Hezbollah's intelligence headquarters Hussein Makled in the strikes. ^{[308] [309]} In Lebanon, the IDF killed Adham Adnan al-Othman, the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad's armed wing, Al-Quds Brigades, in Lebanon. ^[310]

The Royal Air Force station at Akrotiri, Cyprus, was targeted by a drone strike around midnight local time, with one causing minor damage. ^{[311] [312] [313] [314]} Another strike on Cyprus led to Greece announcing that they would deploy frigates and F-16s to defend Cyprus from any further strikes by Iran. ^[315] Later in the day IRGC general Sardar Jabbari commented that there was a US presence on the island of Cyprus and that Iran planned to strike the island "with such intensity that the Americans will be forced to leave". ^{[316] [317]} The pro-Iran militant group Guardians of the Blood Brigade claimed responsibility for attacks on the US Victory Base near Baghdad International Airport and Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq. ^{[83] [318] [319]} The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for over 23 drone strikes on US assets in Erbil. ^[320]

On 3 March, US and Israeli strikes reportedly destroyed the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) headquarters, ^[321] the Expediency Discernment Council building in Tehran, ^[322] and what Israeli officials described as an underground nuclear weapons facility called Min Zadai. ^[323] The proximity of these strikes to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (about 12 km (7.5 mi) away) prompted the Russian agency Rosatom to suspend construction on new units and evacuate non-essential staff due to a loss of communication with Iranian officials. ^[324] US officials said US forces severely damaged Iran's naval capabilities, mainly in the Gulf of Oman, where several Iranian warships have reportedly been destroyed and key bases hit. ^{[325] [326]} Debris from an airstrike damaged Golestan Palace, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, ^[327] causing UNESCO to issue a statement that damaging UNESCO property is against international law. ^[328]

Israel Katz authorized a ground invasion of Lebanon on 3 March. ^{[329] [330]} They were later followed by a ground incursion in southern Lebanon with forces from the 91st Division with the goal to establish a "security layer" for the Israeli residents of northern settlements against Hezbollah, expecting to destroy their infrastructure in the Israel-Lebanon border. The Lebanese government reported that such Israeli preventive attacks reached Kfarkela and Qouzah, provoking the Lebanese army to do a redeployment from newly established border posts amid escalating Israeli activity in violation of the 2024 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire agreement. ^[331] Israel also reported that it killed Daoud Alizadeh, the commander of the Quds Force's Lebanon branch, in Tehran. ^[332]

Western diplomats and other sources told The Jerusalem Post that Qatar had struck Iran after Iran had attempted to strike Doha's airport and Qatar shot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers; ^[333] Channel 12 also reported Qatari strikes. ^[334] Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari denied the accusation that Qatar had joined the "campaign targeting Iran". ^[335] An IRGC general warned it would hit all economic hubs in the Middle East, ^{[336] [337]} and Abbas Araghchi said that any defensive European military involvement would be considered an act of war. ^{[338] [339]}

On 4 March, US secretary of state Marco Rubio announced that the US-Israeli attacks on Iran would increase in their intensity. ^[340] Israel attacks hit the Basij headquarters. ^[341] Mojtaba Khamenei survived an airstrike. ^[342] The IDF announced that an F-35I "Adir" shot down a Russian-made Iranian Yak-130 fighter jet over Tehran, the first time that an F-35 has ever shot down a crewed fighter jet in air-to-air combat and the first time the Israeli Air Force shot down an aircraft since 1985. ^[343]

Iran launched strikes against the Al Udeid Air Base, ^[344] as well as Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refining facility. ^[345] The United States ordered the evacuation of non-essential workers in Cyprus in anticipation of Iranian strikes and issued a travel warning for the country. ^{[346] [347]} A ballistic missile launched from Iranian territory was intercepted by NATO integrated air defense systems as it entered Turkish airspace, marking a significant escalation in the regional conflict. ^[348] Turkey asserted its right to self-defense after the missile landed in Dörtyol, Hatay Province, ^[349] and NATO secretary general Mark Rutte stated that the alliance was committed to defending Turkey. ^[350]

An Iranian Navy frigate, IRIS Dena, was sunk in the Indian Ocean by United States Navy submarine USS Charlotte, about 40 nautical miles (74 km; 46 mi) south of Galle, Sri Lanka. The vessel was returning to Iran following its participation in the International Fleet Review 2026 and the multilateral Exercise MILAN at Visakhapatnam, India. ^{[351] [352] [353]} The exercise required participating ships not to carry any ammunition, and the US likely knew the Dena was defenseless, since it also sent a maritime patrol aircraft to participate. ^[354] It was the first ship sunk by a submarine in active combat since the Falklands War, and the first by an American submarine since World War II. ^{[z] [357]} According to the Iranian army, 104 Iranians were killed and 32 were injured from this attack. ^[358]

The government of Azerbaijan said on 5 March that two drones from Iran struck Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave ^[359] damaging an airport and injuring two civilians. ^[360] Alarms went off in the UK's military bases on Cyprus twice during the visit of UK defence minister John Healey, causing widespread panic and self-evacuations in the local population, but the bases confirmed in both instances that the missiles were not headed toward Cyprus. ^[361] Keir Starmer confirmed that the UK's bases on Cyprus would be used to defend the airspace of Jordan from Iranian drones, ^{[362] [363]} while Italy, the Netherlands and Spain confirmed that they would be sending warships to defend Cyprus. ^{[364] [365] [366]} Ireland stated that they would be willing to protect Cyprus and join the European defense coalition that had mobilized around the island if requested. ^[367] The IDF killed Hamas official Wassim Attallah al-Ali in Beddawi, Lebanon. ^[368]

Trump said on 6 March that there are "no time limits" for how long the war will continue for, ^[369] and Hegseth stated that the war has "only just begun". ^[370] Three Ghanaian peacekeepers enrolled in UNIFIL were hit by a missile and wounded in Southern Lebanon. ^[371] The Iranian tanker IRIS Bushehr was interned by the Sri Lanka Navy, marking the first instance of a warship being interned in a neutral country since World War II. ^[372]

Second week (7–13 March)

On 7 March, the US sent a third aircraft carrier, USS George H. W. Bush, to the Middle East. ^{[373] [374] [375]} The British aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales was placed on advanced readiness to defend British interests in the region. ^[376] Pezeskhian told reporters on 7 March that Iran would stop striking neighbors from 7 March onwards unless an attack originated from there. ^[377] Despite this, Dubai International Airport was later attacked by Iranian drones. ^[378] NDTV reported that following a week's hostilities, Iran might only have around one thousand ballistic missiles left. ^[379] On 7 March, ballistic missiles were fired from Bahrain toward Iran, likely by US forces. ^[380]

On 8 March, Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba, was designated as Iran's new supreme leader. ^[381] Also on 8 March, US Central Command posted a message on X in Persian and Arabic which "strongly urge[s] civilians in Iran to stay at home" and alleging that "[t]he Iranian regime is knowingly endangering innocent lives by using heavily populated civilian areas to conduct military operations, including launching one-way attack drones and ballistic missiles". ^[382]

Israeli airstrikes hit some of Iran's oil storage facilities, killing four people. ^[383] Strikes on fuel depots near Tehran caused a "river of fire" to pour out along the streets in the surrounding area, ^[384] and the city became engulfed in a cloud of thick black smoke, causing toxic acidic black rain to fall in the surrounding area. ^[385] Residents were advised by Iranian authorities to stay indoors, wear masks when outside, and conserve food and fuel. ^[386] Kuwait reported that two of its officers were killed while performing duties. ^{[387] [388]} The Saudi Civil Defense agency said that a strike on a compound in Al-Kharj killed two people and injured 12 others. ^[389] US Central Command announced the death of a seventh US service member from an Iranian attack. ^[390]

The United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense confirmed that its forces had intercepted an Iranian drone headed towards Iraq. Additionally, the Ministry declared their intention to send a Merlin helicopter to the region to help aid in detecting future aerial threats. ^[391] According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, a total of 65 schools and 32 medical facilities (such as hospitals and pharmacies) have been targeted since the war started, and more than 10,000 civilian sites have been damaged. ^[392] On 9 March, NATO confirmed the interception of a second ballistic missile over Turkish air space, ^[393] landing in the area of Gaziantep. ^[394] Meanwhile, Turkey deployed six F-16s and air defence systems to Northern Cyprus to ensure its security. ^[395]

Trump claimed that "the war is very complete, pretty much", after speaking with Russian president Vladimir Putin, ^[396] and said "we already won the war in many ways." ^[397] He additionally claimed that the Strait of Hormuz was open but also expressed interest in taking it over from Iran. ^[398] Trump later went back on some of his comments during a press conference held later that day, supporting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in stating that the war was just the "beginning of building a new country" and that it would end "soon". ^[399] However, Trump also said that the US will have the "most intense day" of strikes on Tuesday. ^[400] Following Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa's support for the Lebanon's objective to disarm Hezbollah, ^[401] the group targeted the city of Inkhil in Syria. ^[402] About a dozen B1-B bombers arrived at bases in Europe. Five landed at the Fairford Royal Air Force base, UK, joining three B-52 bombers, while three others were redirected to Ramstein Air Base, Germany. ^[403]

GPS jamming of uncertain origin has disrupted navigation of ships near the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to disastrous accidents for oil tankers. ^[405] The United States Department of State (supported by Saudi Arabia) ^[406] designated the Muslim Brotherhood branch in Sudan (a Sudanese Islamist organization) as a terrorist organization due to its nexus with the Axis of Resistance. ^[407] Members of their militia fought alongside the IRGC due to the contacts established with the Al-Bara' ibn Malik Battalion during the Iranian intervention in Sudan. ^[408] On 10 March, a senior IRGC commander stated that Iran was only firing missiles with payloads of 1,000 kg or more. ^[409] AFP reported that Iran's attacks were the "most intense and heaviest" since the start of the war. ^[410] This shows a shift in tactics from saturating air defences to high-impact penetration strikes. ^[409]

Following the Syrian presidency's support for the disarmament of Hezbollah and a campaign of mobilization by the Syrian army on the Lebanese border, ^{[401] [411]} shells from Lebanon landed in the town of Serghaya, 20 km (12 mi) from Damascus where the Syrian Armed Forces forces presided. ^[412] The strikes were confirmed by the Operations Authority of the Syrian Army. ^[413] Later in the day, Israel issued an urgent evacuation notice to southern suburbs of Beirut. ^[414]

US admiral Brad Cooper reported that Iran's ballistic missile launch rate fell 90% from day one of the war and their drone launch rate fell 83%. ^[415] Defense analyst AJ Jaff reported that the missile launch rate fell 92% (480 to 40) and the drone launch rate fell 92% (720 to 60). ^[416] On 11 March, eleven B-1 and three B-52 US bombers were deployed to RAF Fairford in the UK, where long-range photography showed bombs being prepared for loading. This followed US war secretary Pete Hegseth's statement that it was the "most intense day of strikes inside Iran", though the targets of the mission remain unknown. ^[417]

A branch of Bank Sepah in Tehran was hit by a strike, prompting the IRGC to warn that in the future, they could retaliate by striking US or Israeli banks in the region. ^[418] Iran hit Stryker, a US-based medical supply company with a cyber attack. ^[419] On 12 March, UNICEF reported that more than 1,100 children were injured or killed (200 reportedly killed in Iran, 91 in Lebanon, 4 in Israel, and 1 in Kuwait), hundreds of thousands displaced, and millions unable to attend schools from the violence of the war since it started. It also noted that these numbers will likely increase. ^[420]

Iranian deputy intelligence minister Akbar Ghaffari was killed in an airstrike. ^[421] An Iranian attack set two oil tankers on fire off the Iraqi coast, killing one person and prompting Iraq to suspend all oil terminal operations. ^[422] The historical Safavid-era building of Rashk-e Jenan, also known as the Rashk Palace, was destroyed by direct US-Israeli strikes. ^[423] Other buildings that were damaged according to Ruhollah Seyed al-Asgari, the deputy director of cultural heritage for Isfahan province, include Chehel Sotoun pavilion, the Rakib Khaneh Mansion, the Timurid Hall, the Ashraf Hall and the windows of Ali Qapu palace. ^[424] Many of the affected buildings and monuments were legally protected by the Blue Shield International, ^[425] which called damaging such sites a war crime. ^[426] Six French soldiers were injured in a drone strike at a base in Mala Qara, Iraqi Kurdistan. French president Emmanuel Macron announced on 13 March that one French soldier was killed in the attack. ^[427]

Also on 13 March, to help deal with the economic costs of the war, the US temporarily lifted restrictions on the sale of Russian oil. However, oil prices have barely been affected by this. ^[428] Iran announced a coordinated offensive by IRGC Navy, the Iranian Army, and Hezbollah against Israel and US bases. ^[429] Israel reported that 58 people have been hospitalized due to injuries following a missile strike. ^[428] Iran again targeted Gulf countries with missiles and drones, causing oil prices to rise. Bahrain reported attacks on fuel tanks. Two people were injured when a "hostile drone" struck a residential building in Kuwait. The Kuwaiti authorities also stated that defense equipment and the country's main international airport were attacked, and six power lines were reported to have gone out of service. AFP reported that explosions were heard in downtown Dubai. At the same time, the British Maritime Trade Operations Agency said a container ship was attacked 35 nautical miles (65 kilometers) north of Jebel Ali in the UAE. According to Al Jazeera Arabic, sirens went off in every city across Jordan. ^[430]

For the third time in the war, ballistic missiles entered Turkish air space and were intercepted, with explosions heard in the proximity of the city of Adana as well as sirens from Incirlik Air Base. ^[431] Israel struck several IRGC checkpoints in Iran. According to Reuters, Israel attacked the checkpoints after receiving tip-offs by on the ground informants. Reuters also reported Israel had struck positions of the Basij used to suppress Iranian protests. ^[432]

Third week (14–20 March)

As of the third week, analysts found little evidence of significant defections or desertions in the Iranian military; ^[aa] military defections have been considered a necessary condition for regime change. ^[442] The US conducted a large-scale attack on Kharg Island, a key oil export hub home to 90 percent of Iran's oil exports. Over 90 military sites were targeted while the oil infrastructure was not targeted "for reasons of decency", according to Trump. Oil prices have risen over 40 percent since the start of the war. ^[443] According to CENTCOM, around 90 military targets were struck, while the island's oil infrastructure was not targeted. ^[444] On 14 March, Kata'ib Hezbollah security commander Abu Ali al-Askari was killed in an airstrike in Baghdad, according to the group. ^[445]

The first two floors of the Royal Tulip Al Rasheed Hotel in Baghdad's Green Zone were hit by a drone whilst hosting a European Union and Saudi Arabian delegation. The attack was not claimed by anyone; however, due to the proximity of a similar attack that had happened 48 hours earlier on the US embassy in Baghdad, there were suspicions of it being an Iranian attack. ^[446]

On 16 March, both China and US-aligned NATO nations in Europe rejected Trump's call to provide military support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. ^{[447] [448]} Trump rebuked his NATO allies, calling their decision a "very foolish mistake". ^[449] On 17 March, Trump made a statement on Truth Social renouncing NATO's assistance, and unexpectedly, US allies in the Indo-Pacific, namely Japan, South Korea, and Australia, for refusing to join US-led attacks on Iran during the war. ^{[450] [451] [452] [453]} In the same statement, Trump declared that the United States "[does] not need the help of anyone" regarding the war. ^[454]

In the early morning of 17 March, several senior Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani were targeted by Israeli airstrikes. ^{[455] [456]} Both their deaths were later confirmed by Iranian state media. ^[457] In response, Iran launched a missile barrage that killed two Israeli civilians in Ramat Gan. ^[458] The same day, Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. ^[459]

On 18 March, in a major escalation, ^[460] Israel struck the South Pars natural gas field in the Persian Gulf and its neighboring refineries in Iran with US coordination. ^[461] In retaliation, Iran attacked the world's largest LNG production facility in Qatar. Trump claimed he was not aware of the South Pars attack, promised that there would be no more Israeli attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure, and threatened Iran not to continue attacking Qatari energy infrastructure. ^{[460] [462]} On the same day, Israel said it had killed Iranian intelligence minister Esmaeil Khatib in an overnight airstrike. ^[463] Pezeshkian confirmed Khatib's killing on the same day. ^[464] A hair salon in Beit Awwa was struck by a projectile, killing four women and injuring six, ^[465] with Israeli authorities stating that it was most likely cluster munitions and Palestinian authorities saying it was an errant Israeli interceptor. ^{[466] [467]}

On 19 March, a U.S. F-35 made an emergency landing after a suspected hit by Iranian forces. ^{[468] [469]} A BAZAN Group refinery in Haifa was hit during a broader Iranian missile attack on the area as a retaliation for Israeli attacks on South Pars gas facilities. ^{[470] [471]} Netanyahu insisted that "You can't make a revolution from the air" and that "there must be a ground component — I won't share with you all the options", implying that there was a potential for limited assault operations involving soldiers on the ground in Iran. ^[472] The U.S. began an aerial campaign against Iranian vessels and drones in the Strait of Hormuz as part of an effort to reopen it to international shipping. ^[473]

Fourth week (21–27 March)

Admiral Brad Cooper said that the U.S. military had so far struck more than 8,000 Iranian military targets, including 130 vessels. ^[474] On 21 March, the U.S. conducted strikes on the Natanz Nuclear Facility using bunker buster bombs to target the site. ^[475] Russia condemned the strikes on Natanz as a "blatant violation of international law," while the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) urged military restraint "to avoid any risk of a nuclear accident". ^[476] In response, Iran struck the southern Israeli town of Dimona, injuring at least 78 people. ^[477] Iran said that it targeted the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center. ^{[478] [479]} Shortly after, Iran conducted another strike on the southern Israeli town of Arad, injuring over 116 people. ^[480]

Citing unnamed US officials, CNN and The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran unsuccessfully attempted to strike the joint US–UK military base at Diego Garcia on the Chagos Islands in the British Indian Ocean Territory. ^[104] The report said one of the missiles broke apart mid-flight, while another was intercepted by a SM-3 air defence missile launched by a US warship. ^{[481] [482]} Israel said that Iran used a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile to target the island. ^{[483] [484]} Iran denied launching missiles towards Diego Garcia, saying that it was an Israeli false flag attack. ^[105] No evidence has been presented that the alleged Iranian missiles neared Diego Garcia or that one was intercepted. ^[485]

The Houthi movement in Yemen warned that it would respond to any escalation against Iran, including efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It specifically warned the two Arab countries offering to join the Strait of Hormuz campaign—Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates—that they "will be the first to lose in this battle". ^[486] The Houthis further threatened to join the war in the event that US allies joined the attack on Iran or if the US and Israel used the Red Sea to carry out operations. ^[487] Lebanon's government expelled the Iranian ambassador. ^[488]

Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, threatening to strike its power plants unless it opened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. ^[489] Iran doubled down, threatening to "completely" close the Strait of Hormuz and strike vital infrastructure across the region such as energy and desalination facilities critical for drinking water. ^[490] Iranian opposition figure and former crown prince Reza Pahlavi called on Trump and Netanyahu to target the military while sparing civilian infrastructure which "Iranians will need to rebuild our country." ^[491] Halfway through the deadline, Trump announced that he was postponing strikes against Iranian power plants for five days, ^[492] and said the US was negotiating with Iran to end the war. ^[493] Iran denied the talks ever took place or were taking place and called the president "deceitful". ^[494] Iran rejected the 15-point peace plan presented by the US. ^{[495] [496]} Iran asserted that Lebanon must be included as part of a ceasefire deal, thereby making a ceasefire conditional on an end to the 2026 Lebanon war against Hezbollah. ^[497]

On 24 March, Israel or its allies shot down an Iranian missile crossing above Lebanon at high altitude, according to the Lebanese army, which also confirmed that the missile was not targeting Lebanon. This was the first time during the current conflict when a shootdown of an Iranian missile took place over Lebanese territory. ^{[498] [499]}

A US strike on the Habbaniya military base—which hosts units from the Popular Mobilization Forces—in Al Anbar Governorate killed seven members of the Iraqi Armed Forces and injured 13 others. In response, Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani summoned the US embassy's chargé d'affaires in Baghdad. ^[500] Iranian state media threatened that Iran could seize Bahraini and Emirati territory if the US "makes any mistakes", while signaling its readiness to open a new front in Yemen by closing the Bab al-Mandab with the Houthis. ^{[501] [502]} Israel said it killed Iran's top naval commander, Alireza Tangsiri, purportedly as part of an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Katz said Tangsiri was "directly responsible" for the closure of. ^{[503] [504] [505]}

On 27 March, a day after Trump and Pete Hegseth announced the "neutralization" of Iran's military, an Iranian missile and drone strike on Prince Sultan Air Base damaged several US refueling aircraft and injured 29 US soldiers. ^[506] An E-3 Sentry was also damaged by the strike. ^{[507] [508] [509]} Military analyst Cedric Leighton described the attack as a "a serious blow to [US] surveillance capabilities". ^[510] Iran showed no signs of ceding its control over the Strait of Hormuz. ^[511] The same day, Iran blocked two Chinese ships from entering the strait and sought to formalize fees for ships passing through it. ^{[512] [513]} Despite pushes for talks, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly vowed to "intensify and expand" Israeli attacks in Iran. ^[514] The same day, the Shahid Khondab Heavy Water Complex in Arak, which has in the past been used to test uranium enrichment, and the Ardakan yellowcake production plant in Yazd Province were confirmed to have been damaged in Israeli airstrikes. ^{[515] [516]}

Fifth week (28 March – present)

The Houthis joined the war on 28 March conducting a ballistic missile attack towards Israel and triggering air raid sirens in Beersheba. ^[517] The Houthis said that they had launched ballistic missiles targeting "sensitive" military sites in Israel, and vowed to continue the attacks "until the aggression on all resistance fronts stops." The missile was intercepted and no casualties were reported. ^[518] The Houthis subsequently launched a second missile at Eilat. ^[519] In response, the internationally recognized Yemeni government condemned Iran's "frequent attempts to drag Yemen" into conflict "through its terrorist militias." ^[520] On the same day, 2,500 U.S. marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit arrived in the Middle East. They are intended to be part of the effort to open the Strait of Hormuz. ^[521]

U.S. Central Command stated that it had struck over 11,000 targets in Iran since the beginning of the war. On 28 March, joint U.S.–Israeli airstrikes severely damaged several residential and civilian facilities, including the Iran University of Science and Technology. ^[523] In response, Iran threatened to attack Israeli and American colleges across the Middle East. ^[524] Airstrikes also struck a 10,000-cubic-meter water reservoir in Haftkel, in Khuzestan province. ^[525]

On 29 March, joint U.S.–Israeli strikes hit a quay at the port city of Bandar Khamir in southern Iran, killing at least five people. ^{[526] [527]} An Iranian missile struck a chemical plant in the Ne'ot Hovav industrial zone, injuring one person and causing fears of a hazardous leak. ^[528] A convoy of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces was seen entering Khorramshahr in southwestern Iran. ^[529] Eleven-year-old child soldier Alireza Jafari died following an Israeli drone strike. ^[530]

On 30 March, Trump said on Truth Social that if a deal was not reached soon and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, the US would conclude the war by destroying all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly all its desalinization plants. ^[531] On the same day Turkey and NATO intercepted the fourth missile directed towards Turkish territory. Iran denied firing a missile at Turkey, claiming that it was a false flag attack. ^{[532] [533]} The U.S. began flying B-52 bombers over Iranian territory for the first time, indicating its confidence of air supremacy over Iran. ^[534] The U.S. used bombers to target an ammunition depot and air base in Isfahan, causing vast explosions. ^[535] U.S-allied Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain reportedly pushed Trump to continue the war until there are significant changes in Iran's leadership. ^[536] American journalist Shelly Kittleson was kidnapped in Baghdad by Kata'ib Hezbollah—the strongest faction within the PMF—who demanded that the Iraqi government release several detained members of the group. ^[537]

On 1 April, Mehr News Agency, a semi-official Iranian government news outlet, reported that policy expert and former foreign minister Kamal Kharazi was seriously injured and his wife was killed in an airstrike which hit his home. ^[539] Iranian officials described the attack as an attempt to derail diplomacy, noting that Kharazi was overseeing a possible meeting between Iranian officials and US vice president JD Vance. ^[540] Airstrikes on the strategically important Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz caused seven injuries. ^[541] Trump indicated that he was no longer concerned about Iran's enriched uranium buried underground. ^[542] Netanyahu asserted that the U.S.–Israeli strikes have eliminated Iran's ability to produce nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, thereby removing "two existential threats" to Israel. ^[543] The Iranian president Pezeshkian published an open letter to US citizens. ^[544]

On 2 April, Trump made a speech addressing the nation, in which he said that the strikes have "dramatically curtailed" Iranian missile and drone systems, and added that the attacks on Iran will escalate over the next two to three weeks to "bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong." ^[545] Two US strikes on the B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj, which was described as the highest bridge in the Middle East, reportedly killed eight people and wounded 95 others, causing it to collapse. ^[546] Trump gloated on the attack, which experts assessed as a war crime. ^[547] At the time of the attack, many Iranian families had been gathered in the parks below the bridge to celebrate Sizdah be-dar. ^[548]

Iran revealed major damage to the century-old medical center Pasteur Institute of Iran. US Defense Secretary Hegseth boasted of "death and destruction from the sky all day long". ^[549] The IDF also announced that one of its strikes in the Kermanshah area of Iran killed Iranian ballistics missile chief Makram Atimi and several battalion commanders from Atimi's central Iranian ballistic missile unit. ^{[550] [551]} An Iranian ballistic missile strike damaged an Israeli drone factory in Petah Tikva. ^{[552] [553] [554]}

On 3 April, Iranian forces shot down a U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet over the country, prompting a search and rescue mission by U.S. helicopters. ^[555] The jet had two crew members, a pilot and a weapon systems officer (WSO). The pilot was successfully rescued by U.S. forces; the search for the WSO is underway. ^{[556] [557]} During the search and rescue mission, an A-10 Warthog aircraft was downed, with its singular pilot also being successfully rescued, ^[558] and 2 Black Hawk helicopters were hit by small arms fire. ^{[559] [560]}

In Iran

Leadership

See also: 2026 Iranian supreme leader election

The three members of the Interim Leadership Council  –President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi

The death of Ali Khamenei triggered an election for a new supreme leader. Under the terms of Iran's constitution, an Interim Leadership Council was established on 1 March to exercise the functions of Iran's head of state until a new supreme leader is elected. ^[270]

Mojtaba Khamenei was elected on 8 March 2026 to replace his father as supreme leader, ^[731] and the IRGC, as well as Iran's top leaders (including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Ali Larijani, and Masoud Pezeshkian ^[732] ) pledged their allegiance to him. ^[733]

In late March the NYT described Iran's leadership as paralyzed with severely disrupted decision-making process. It also reported that the damage to communications infrastructure caused paranoia and internal power struggles. ^[734]

In Israel

Israel declared a nationwide state of emergency, saying that the strikes on Iran were the largest that it had ever launched. ^{[250] [764]} Israeli schools and workspaces were closed and public gatherings were canceled. ^[765]

In Palestine

The Israeli Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories closed multiple aid crossings in the Gaza Strip (specifically interrupting free circulation on the Egypt–Gaza border). ^[766] Israeli forces suspended United Nations humanitarian movements and postponed planned rotations of international humanitarian staff (including medical evacuations and the return of people into Gaza), which the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs condemned. ^[767]

Israeli settler violence against Palestinians in occupied West Bank has increased; settlers have taken advantage of curbs on movement imposed during the renewed Israeli state of emergency. The renewed blocking of West Bank roads (in the context of the 2026 Lebanon war) has delayed medics from assisting injured Palestinians. ^[768] The EU stated on 10 March that the Israeli actions were unacceptable and urged the Israeli authorities to make immediate efforts to prevent the violence against Palestinian civilians under international law, warning that "impunity for such acts risks provoking further violence". ^[769]

In Gulf states

The Arab states of the Persian Gulf started a campaign of prosecution against civilians and foreign citizens that shared or reposted rumours from unverified sources about the Iranian attacks, with the stated main goal to curb misinformation that could harm public order. ^[770] Bahrain's Cyber Crime Directorate also started a campaign of arresting civilians in the country, which has a large Shiite minority, who allegedly expressed "their support for the Iranian shelling targeting the Kingdom of Bahrain", describing such activities as treason and as promotion of hostile acts against the state. ^[771] Trump said "Even if we knew Gulf countries would be hit, big deal we did what we have to do". ^[671]

Economic and geopolitical impact

Petrol gas prices measured in euros and in liters in Germany on 3 March 2026

Petrol gas prices measured in euros and in liters in Germany on 8 March 2026, note the increase in price compared to a week earlier.

The war has global economic consequences: The conflict led to immediate surges in oil and gas prices, widespread disruptions in aviation and tourism, and heightened volatility in financial markets. ^{[772] [773]} The head of International Energy Agency (IEA) described the situation caused by the war as the "greatest global energy security challenge in history". ^[774]

Disruption of international trade

Analysts projected potential global inflation increases and risks of recession if disruptions persisted, particularly through closures of key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on gas and oil facilities. ^{[772] [773]} Oil prices rose following a reduction in traffic through the strait, and strikes on oil facilities in countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. ^[775] Oil prices went over US$100 per barrel ^[665] to $114 per barrel, ^[665] the highest prices since the COVID-19 pandemic. An expert warned that if this continues, this could lead into a worldwide economic recession. ^[776] Gas prices also rose, ^[293] and analysts said raising the world's prices was a part of the Iranian government's plan to apply pressure on the world to stop the war. ^[777] Toward the end of March there were significant shortages of domestic petroleum products in southeast Asia. ^[778]

On 6 March, Qatar's energy minister Saad al-Kaabi warned that if the war continues other Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports and declare force majeure, and that "this will bring down economies of the world". ^[779] Stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling over 400 points (one percent) on 2 March. ^[780] Broader economic forecasts warned of inflationary pressures and slowed global growth if the conflict prolonged. ^[781]

The UN World Food Programme and various economic analysts have warned that the war is driving significant, long-term increases in global food prices. ^{[782] [783]} A near-total halt of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the supply of fuel and essential fertilizers, threatening global food security and echoing the 2022 food crisis. ^{[784] [785]} The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) stated that nearly 50% of global urea and sulfur exports, as well as 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG)—a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers—transit through the Strait of Hormuz. ^[786]

Airspace closures

Iran's airspace was largely empty of civilian aircraft following the strikes as regional states closed airspace. ^{[787] [788]} Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Syria and the UAE closed their respective airspace following the attacks, with multiple airliners being redirected to other destinations. ^{[789] [790] [791]} Some regional-based and International airlines suspended services to the Middle East in view of the war. ^[792] According to a Wirtschaftswoche analysis, prolonging the conflict would mean a "catastrophe" for Gulf states such as Qatar and the UAE. ^[793]

Strait of Hormuz

Main article: 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis

The current soft closure in Hormuz, alongside the fears of a declared blockade, has caused an increase in financial risk due to the impact in the prices for energy, shipping, insurance, aviation, etc. The war has provoked speculation in the world economy, caused by the possibility of prolonged supply disruption, which will have broader consequences for inflation, currencies, and emerging markets. One-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption and one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade is done by the extraction of oil in the Persian Gulf Basin and its passage through the Strait of Hormuz. ^[794] Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader, said the Strait of Hormuz would continue to be closed to pressure the US. ^[795] However, Iran said that ships can pass through the Hormuz as long as they cooperate with the Iranian navy. ^[795] Araghchi said the Hormuz would be open overall but closed to Iran's enemies. ^[671]

Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb

See also: Red Sea crisis

Houthi-controlled Yemen restarted its threats in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, which had been suspended since 10 October 2025 after the Gaza peace plan proposal. ^[796] Some security sources claim that Houthis are planning to do incursions in the Arabian Sea and also use bases from the African side of the Red Sea, helped by their presence and some cells established in East Africa. ^[797]

As of 4 March, hostilities had not resumed as there was reportedly internal debate inside the group over its response. ^[798] On 5 March, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said in a recorded address that his group stood with Iran in the ongoing war and was prepared to take action if developments required it, stating, "Our hands are on the trigger whenever developments require it", and warning that the group remains ready to intervene if the situation escalates further. ^{[799] [800]}

By 7 March, the Houthis had released only three declarations, with a tone characterized as more disciplined and subdued this time, unlike its usual bellicose approach on other conflicts of the Middle Eastern crisis, seeming more as political and emotional statements in favour of Iran rather than practical and military solidarity. Such pragmatist attitude has been influenced by the 2025 United States–Houthi ceasefire, not wanting to open multiple fronts in the current Yemeni civil war, which has been waging since 2014 and to focus on ending the conflict with Saudi Arabia. ^[801]

On 15 March, the Associated Press reported that the weapons stockpile of the Houthis is running low after repeated attacks on Israel during the Gaza war, while Iran's ongoing conflict has further disrupted weapons supplies, though the group retains a significant stockpile of drones. Despite these limitations, the Houthis have been recruiting fighters, expanding local weapons production, and reinforcing positions along the Red Sea coast, including the port city of Hodeidah, signaling potential escalation. Unlike Hezbollah's immediate intervention, the Houthis appear to act according to Iran's gradual deployment strategy, likely intervening only if the conflict widens or if Iran faces a serious threat to its military capabilities. ^{[802] [803]}

On 16 March, The Times reported that the Houthis are waiting for an approval from Iran to resume their attacks should Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz be weakened by the US. Recent statistics indicate that nearly 30 oil tankers near the Saudi port city of Yanbu are currently within the Houthis' attack range. ^[804] On 20 March, senior Houthi politburo member Mohammed al-Bukhaiti declared that "All options at the military level are possible" ^{[805] [ better source needed ]} and mentioned that the group was considering a naval blockade and would specifically target vessels belonging to "aggressor countries" involved in military actions against "Iran, Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq", to support Iran's ongoing "confrontation with the United States and Israel." ^[806]

Iran

Civilians

A holistic picture of civilian reactions in Iran is difficult to obtain due to the government's control over the circulation of information, the renewed internet blackout, and the ongoing heated nature of the war. ^[821] In the initial aftermath of the strikes, there was evidence of both celebration and mourning at the killing of Iranian leadership. ^[822] Photos and videos showed people inside Iran celebrating the attacks, hopeful that they will bring forth an end to the ruling government, ^{[823] [824]} as well as pro-government rallies with participants waving the Islamic Republic flag and holding portraits of Ali Khamenei, while demonstrating against the US and Israeli attack. ^{[825] [826] [827]} In multiple instances, videos showed Iranians conducting protests against the government from the windows of their homes. ^{[828] [829]} There was no immediate evidence of an uprising against the government. ^[822]

During the 17 March Chaharshanbe Suri festivities ahead of the Nowruz holiday, many Iranians defied orders from the authorities and celebrated in the streets, with footage showing security forces firing gunshots to disperse crowds. ^{[830] [831]} Civilians also expressed fear, grief and anger at the US–Israeli strikes, and at civilian casualties caused by them. ^{[832] [833]} Some civilians who had opposed the Islamic Republic and supported regime change later recoiled at the prolonged and violent nature of the war. An Iranian sociologist said that the war was causing a rally around the flag effect. ^[834] Trump's vow on 1 April to send Iran "back to the Stone Age", which opposed the initial Make Iran Great Again and the vows to the Iranian perotrstors that "help is on the way", met with strong reactions among Iranians ^[835] and analysts. ^[836]

Diaspora and opposition

See also: 2026 Iranian diaspora protests § Celebrations following the Israeli–United States strikes on Iran

Following the US–Israeli airstrikes on Iran, some^{[ who? ]} of the Iranian diaspora showed support for regime change in Iran ^[838] and framed the war as a liberation rather than an invasion. ^[839] Celebratory rallies were held worldwide by many members of the Iranian diaspora, where Iranians gathered waving anti–Islamic Republic symbols, including the Lion and Sun flag. ^{[840] [841] [842]}

Reza Pahlavi, the most prominent leader of the opposition and son of the former Shah of Iran, expressed support for strikes targeting government and military sites, while also urging that civilians not be harmed. He called on members of Iran's military and security forces to stand with the public rather than the ruling authorities, and urged Iranians to prepare for the resumption of the 2025–2026 Iranian protests as the Islamic Republic was "collapsing". ^[843] He stated that he is prepared for his proposed transitional government to take over should the Islamic Republic be overthrown. ^{[844] [845]}

Following the death of Khamenei, he said in an interview with the program 60 Minutes that Iranians should be ready to take to the streets at an appropriate moment to advance political change. Pahlavi also stated that he did not intend to seek political office or restore the monarchy, but aimed instead to help guide Iran through a peaceful transition to a democratic system. ^[843] Kurdish Iranian dissidents in Iraq denied any attack plans, but said they would support a US invasion of Iran. ^[846] On 7 March, an Iranian Kurd leader in Iraq said that ground operation into Iran is "highly likely". ^[847]

United States

President Trump described the attacks on Iran as "a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America". ^[848] He said that "For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted 'Death to America' and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, targeting the United States, our troops and the innocent people in many, many countries." ^[849] Trump also claimed that attacking Iran avoided a Third World War. ^[671] Trump said that talks with Iran will be easier following Khamenei's assassination. ^[240] On the third day of the war, Trump said that the US military is "knocking the crap out of Iran but the big wave of attacks yet to come" and mentioning the possible use of ground troops. ^[240] According to experts, the use of ground troops are required for the goals of the Trump administration in the Middle East. ^[850]

On 3 March, Trump said on Truth Social: "Their air defense, Air Force, Navy, and Leadership is gone. They want to talk. I said, 'Too Late!'" ^[615] Trump claimed victory and said that he had defeated Iran militarily. ^[340] Trump has also informally stated his goal for a post-war Iran to follow US directives on oil production as Venezuela does, following the US intervention. ^[851] On 7 March, Trump shifted the war's objectives from urging Iranian civilians to seize control to demanding the "Unconditional surrender" of the regime, while stating that he would play a role in shaping the decisions that follow. ^{[852] [853]} Trump stated that regime change in Iran will happen, but "maybe not immediately". ^[854] During the war, top US general Dan Caine said that Iranian forces are not more formidable than expected. ^[855] US intelligence found that Iran did not attempt to restart nuclear enrichment after the Twelve-Day War. ^[856] On 23 March 2026, Trump postponed US strikes against Iranian powerplants for five days, saying he had held "productive" negotiations. ^[857]

Public

See also: Protests against the 2026 Iran war in the United States

Opinion polling showed that most Americans were opposed to US military action against Iran. ^[858] The Guardian found 27% of Americans were supportive of the US operation while 43% were opposed and 29% were uncertain. ^[859] NBC found 52% of registered voters were against military action, while 41% supported it. ^[860] Most Americans believed that Trump had not explained the goals behind attacking Iran. ^[626] Polls showed splits on the issue along political and demographic lines. Most Republicans supported the action, while most Democrats and independents opposed it. ^[858] A 22 March CBS poll of 3,335 American adults reported that 92% believe it's important for the conflict to end as quickly as possible, four in five said it was important to make sure the Iranian people were safe and free, 73% said it was important for the US to permanently end the Iranian nuclear program, 68% said it was important to stop Iran from posing a threat to other countries, and 53% said it would be unacceptable to end the war with the Islamic Republic still in power. ^[861] The largest civilian protest in American history occurred on 28 March 2026 partly in reaction to the War in Iran. ^[862] A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from 17–19 March 2026, found that 65% of Americans believed President Donald Trump would order a large-scale ground war in Iran, while only 7% of respondents supported such a move. ^[863]

Israel

Netanyahu said the goal of the strikes was to "remove the existential threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran", stating that "our joint action will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands." ^[880] Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said that military action against Iran was urgently needed "despite the significant risks involved", adding that "delay would have allowed the Iranian regime to reach a level of immunity for its nuclear programme, as well as to engage in the mass production of long-range ballistic missiles". ^[881] Minister of Science and Technology Gila Gamliel said that 2026 Israeli legislative election will likely be brought forward to late June or July to allow Netanyahu's bloc to leverage the war. ^[882] Opposition leaders supported the strikes. ^[883]

On 4 March 2026, Defense Minister Israel Katz disclosed that Israel had initially planned to strike Iran in mid-2026. ^[884] On 5 March 2026, Katz said that Netanyahu set an aim of assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in November 2025. ^[885] On 18 March 2026, Katz said that Netanyahu and he authorized the military to assassinate any senior Iranian official with no further approval. ^[886] Mossad Chief David Barnea told Netanyahu that Mossad could spark protests against the Iranian government at the beginning of the war. ^[887] A March 2026 survey by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) found that 82% of the Israeli public supported ongoing military operations, including 93% of Jewish Israelis and 26% of Arab Israelis. ^[888]

International

It was reported that European Union Commission president ⁠Ursula von der Leyen supports a regime change in Iran. ^{[889] [890]} NATO secretary general Mark Rutte said that Europe is "supportive" of the US attacks on Iran, as Iran is a "threat". ^[891] He also said that he felt that the US "knows what it is doing". ^[892] The head of the World Health Organization condemned the attacks. ^[893] The US and Israeli attacks were supported at least in part by Ukraine, ^{[894] [895]} Australia, ^[896] Canada, ^[897] Germany, ^[898] and several EU countries, ^[899] while being implicitly or explicitly opposed by Armenia, ^[900] China, ^[901] Oman, ^[902] North Korea, ^[903] Pakistan, ^[904] Russia, ^[894] and Spain. ^[905] Germany later became a critic of the war. ^[906] The US-Israeli attack was condemned by a number of progressive ^[907] and left-wing parties, ^{[908] [909]} as well as trade unions, ^{[910] [911]} anti-war organizations, ^{[912] [913]} and some far-right parties. ^{[914] [915]}

Iran's retaliations were condemned by Bahrain, ^[902] Cyprus, ^[899] Egypt, ^[916] India, ^{[917] [918]} Kuwait, ^[895] the Palestinian Authority, ^[919] Qatar, ^[895] Saudi Arabia, ^[264] Syria, ^[920] Turkey, ^[662] the UAE, ^[895] as well as by several other EU countries, ^[899] and France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, who issued a joint declaration. ^[921] The United Kingdom permitted the US to use British military bases for defensive purposes, ^[922] although Trump refused their offer send over aircraft carriers. ^[923] Portugal permitted the US to use Lajes Field for defensive purposes, ^[924] and France sent its aircraft carrier towards the Mediterranean. ^[662] The Canadian government has officially abstained from joining in U.S.-led Israel war in Iran. ^[925] On 5 March 2026, French broadcaster BFMTV reported that France authorized American armed forces to use French bases amid the war. ^[926] There have been movements between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan due to the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between both countries, as it "states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both". ^{[927] [928]}

Mixed reactions or calls for peace were made by South Africa, ^[929] Azerbaijan, ^[900] Lebanon, ^{[930] [931] [895]} Ireland, ^[932] Slovenia, ^[899] and the Vatican City. ^[933] In addition to condemning both the US and Israeli attacks and Iran's counterattacks, ^[899] Spain denied the use of its military bases for US flights connected to a military offensive against Iran, leading President Trump to threaten economic retaliation. ^[934] In Pakistan, the army was deployed to suppress the escalation of violence during pro-Iranian protests in the northern cities of Gilgit and Skardu, especially after Shiite demonstrators attacked on 1 March the offices of the UN Military Observer Group at Azad Kashmir. Similar action was done in Sindh during the attack on the US consulate in Karachi. ^[935] On 11 March 2026, the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 2817, sponsored by Bahrain, which calls for Iran to stop its attack on the Gulf states and condemned the strikes as a violation of international law. The resolution did not mention US–Israel strikes on Iran and Lebanon. ^{[936] [937]} On 20 March 2026, the UK approved the US to use British bases to attack Iranian missile sites targeting vessels in the Strait ‌of Hormuz. ^[938]

Legality

Geopolitical implications

Numerous critics and analysts identified the US-Israeli attack with a more open embrace of expansionism ^[957] and imperialism by the Trump administration. ^{[958] [959]} The US–Israeli attack is widely considered a "war of choice". ^[960] A number of US and Israeli officials, including Hegseth, ^[961] have made religious justifications for the war. ^{[962] [963]} According to some analysts, the war has been a setback for Russian influence in the region. However, the analysts also noted that it may distract the United States from the war in Ukraine. ^[964]

The war has been described as having various benefits and drawbacks for Chinese geopolitical interests. The BBC reported that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the war in Iran may weaken Chinese interests in countries that rely on Gulf countries' oil. ^[965] US aggression in Iran played into Chinese rhetoric that frames China as "a pillar of stability in contrast to an unpredictable America." Analysts noted that China has interests both in Iran and in the Gulf states, and that Gulf states may seek closer ties with China after facing attacks from Iran because of their US-alignment. However, analysts also pointed to the loss of discounted sanctioned oil and the inflationary impact of oil scarcity as potential economic drawbacks to the war. ^[966]

Gilbert Achcar said that the US was practicing a modernized version of gunboat diplomacy. ^[967] Gokay and Hamourtziadou connected the attack on Iran with a longstanding pattern of US interventions in the region. They also connected the attack on Iran in the midst of negotiations to the history of United States treaty-breaking during westward expansion. ^[968] Saeed Shah wrote that many in the Global South do not view the war as having the moral purpose that the US and many of its allies asserted, and that they instead see the war as a failure of diplomacy, and an act of aggression against a weaker nation. International relations experts said that the erosion of international law was making nations in the Global South feel insecure, and more likely to support a coalition against US interests. ^[969]

An analysis from Iran International suggests that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may be positioning themselves for a more active role in fighting against Iran. ^[970] The quicker Iranian response relative to that of the Twelve-Day War suggests a change in Iran's command structure. ^{[971] [972] [258] [973]} Reuters said that by sending missiles at Gulf states, Iran caused them to realize that Iran poses a threat to them, and could thus cause them to support the US-Israel strikes. ^[974] Former CIA director David Petraeus echoed these sentiments, stating that Iran's targeting of other Gulf states was likely a strategic error that could pull additional countries into the war. ^[975]