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Rationale for the 2026 Iran war

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US president Donald Trump with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 4 February 2025. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (cropped).jpg
US president Donald Trump with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 4 February 2025.

Numerous reasons have been given by different people for the 2026 Iran war, which began when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran on 28 February 2026. U.S. and Israeli officials have framed it as a preemptive war of self-defense. [1] [2] They argue that diplomacy had failed to contain the unacceptable and potentially existential threats of Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles. They also argued the strikes were justified as a response to Iran's regional activities (support for proxy groups, attacks on shipping, etc.) and its violent suppression of domestic protests in January 2026. Critics have described it as a war of choice. [3] [4] [5] Some analysts describe the war as a classic "security dilemma", where both sides saw the other's military buildup as threatening, making conflict increasingly likely even if neither side necessarily wanted full-scale war. [6] Regional actors, like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, share many of the US and Israel's war aims though differing on whether to pursue war or diplomacy. [7]

Contents

US rationale

In the United States, Trump administration officials have offered various and conflicting rationales for the war, [8] such as to ward off an imminent Iranian threat, to pre-empt Iranian retaliation against US assets after an expected Israeli attack on Iran, [9] [10] [11] [12] to destroy Iran's missile and military capabilities, to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, [13] to secure Iran's natural resources, [14] and to achieve regime change by bringing the Iranian opposition to power. [15] [16] [17] [18] Several statements were reportedly made by some United States officials such as Pete Hegseth justifying the action from a Christian religious perspective, some of which described the situation as a holy war. [19]

Trump announcing Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, stating the US's rationale and military objectives

President Donald Trump has stated the goals of the war were to destroy Iran's ballistic missiles, eliminate their navy, prevent them from acquiring nuclear weapons, and to stop Iranian proxies from holding power. [20] Trump asserted that Iran's ballistic missile program could endanger US allies "throughout the world", including Europe and American mainland. Pete Hegseth, the United States Secretary of Defense, said that Iran would be capable of nuclear blackmail with their ballistic missiles if the US didn't attack it. [20] However, a Defense Intelligence Agency assessment determined that Iran was not capable of building ballistic missiles until 2035. [21] Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Iran posed an "imminent threat" to US bases in the event of Israeli strikes on Iran, thereby portraying the war as a preemptive one. [22]

Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives [23] and Rubio said that Israel was going to attack Iran, after which Iran's retaliations against US bases would have brought them into war anyway. Senator Mark Warner of the Senate Intelligence Committee who was briefed by Rubio before the war began said that there was no evidence that Iran was going to launch a pre-emptive strike against the US, and that the war was ultimately decided upon by Israel. [20] Trump rejected these claims, stating that "I might have forced their hands. You see, we were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they [the Iranians] were going to attack first." [24]

Domestic pressures in the US

Some critics have described the United States intervention against Iran as a "diversionary war", noting mounting domestic pressures including intense public scrutiny following the publication of the Epstein files, Operation Metro Surge by ICE, and the economic impact of global tariffs which have contributed to falling approval ratings and legal actions. [25] [26] [27] Representative Thomas Massie and former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene argued Trump started the war as a distraction from the Epstein files. [28]

Israeli rationale

Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, the regime has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction, [29] [30] [31] which, in combination with Iran's alleged nuclear aspirations and its sponsorship of militias, has led Israel to view Iran as an existential threat. [32] [33] Israeli officials have viewed Iran's ballistic missile program and nuclear capabilities as an existential threat. [34] US Senator Mark Warner has stated that Iran's ballistic missiles aren't a threat to the US, but that they are to Israel. [20]

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, has wanted to attack Iran for decades. [23] [35] [36] Trump getting into office provided Netanyahu with a good opportunity to pressure the US to attack Iran, especially after its proxies such as Hezbollah are not as powerful as they used to be. [23] Throughout the war, Israeli strategy has reflected the aim of eliminating Iran as a rival regional power. Israeli strikes have targeted Iran's political elites broadly across differing factions and currents, undermining the possibility of regime change, while Israeli officials and intelligence agencies have also incited and backed ethnic separatist causes which threaten Iran's internal stability. [37] [38] [39]

Domestic pressures in Israel

Netanyahu has faced charges for corruption, and the war may have helped him avoid dealing with these. The war may also help the Israeli government to overhaul Israel's Supreme Court, mitigate criticism of Israel's treatment of Palestinians, and help Netanyahu with the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The war has made Netanyahu more popular; before it he was tied with Naftali Bennett, but now has 62% support. Some analysts suggest that Netanyahu will call for a snap election due to the extra support from the war. [40]

Regional actors

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates share the US and Israel's stated objectives of restricting Iran's nuclear, drone and missile programs, though they differ on whether war or diplomacy is the best path. [7] According to The Washington Post , crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman had urged Trump to attack Iran in multiple phone calls, [41] and that the Saudi Arabian and Israeli governments lobbied Trump repeatedly to make the move in the weeks leading up to the initial strikes. [42] It has also been reported that Saudi Arabia pushed Trump to continue the war against Iran until its government is overthrown. [43] These allegations were denied by Saudi Arabia. [44]

Religion

Donald Trump praying with faith leaders at the White House, 19 March 2025. The White House - 54410784210.jpg
Donald Trump praying with faith leaders at the White House, 19 March 2025.

In the United States, religious justifications were first developed in the 19th century and are primarily supported by protestants who believe in dispensationalism. [45]

The watchdog group Military Religious Freedom Foundation disclosed they were told that the war was a part of God's plan, and that some military commanders have compared the war to the end times, [46] especially Armageddon, [47] an event in which Jesus returns in what is known as the second coming and is mentioned in the Book of Revelation. [48] One officer complained that he was told by a commander that Donald Trump was anointed by Jesus. Some US politicians are calling for investigations for this. [49] One of the major original complainants of this was himself a Christian. [50] However, the allegations are still unverified. [51]

Pete Hegseth, attending a Christian worship service, prayed for there to be "overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy." [52] This was later met with rebuke by Pope Leo XIV, condemning those who wage war and have "hands full of blood" and stating that God "does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them." [53]

Religious criticisms

Many other Christians criticized the war. Robert McElroy, a Cardinal for the Catholic Church, called for an end for the war, and Leo XIV, the current Pope echoed this statement. Hegseth in response attempted to appeal to earlier times in the Catholic Church, particularly the era of the Crusades. [19] However, the Crusaders were not only anti-Muslim but also anti-Jewish. [54] [55]

Analysis of religious justifications for the war

Hashemi argued that religious justifications played a large role behind the war. Gregg Roman, the director of Middle East Forum, said that there are Judeo-Christian justifications being made for the war. [56] Professor Jolyon Mitchell noted that both sides of the war are profess divine favor. Abusharif said that in the United States, religious justifications for this war are the most appealing among Christian Zionists and evangelical Christians. He also said that the war is not theological, but geopolitical. [47] However, Riaz Khokhar of Al Jazeera argued that religion plays just as much of a role in the war as strategy. [57]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Jimison, Robert; Capitol, Megan MineiroReporting from the (2026-03-02). "Rubio Warns 'Hardest Hits' on Iran Lie Ahead and Offers Conflicting Rationales". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 2026-03-26.
  2. ↑ "US and Israel launch "pre-emptive" attack against Iran". Reuters. 28 February 2026. Retrieved 26 March 2026.
  3. ↑ Salvanto, Anthony; De Pinto, Jennifer; Backus, Fred (22 March 2026). "Iran war, rising gas prices fuel economic concerns; most say conflict not going well, don't want regime left in power, CBS News poll finds". CBS News.
  4. ↑ Helmore, Edward (1 March 2026). "Trump allies defend US-Israel strikes on Iran as Democrats call it a 'war of choice'". The Guardian.
  5. ↑ Haas, Richard (8 March 2026). "America chose this war — and must now choose how to end it". Financial Times.
  6. ↑ "Why War on Iran? – MEPEI" . Retrieved 2026-03-26.
  7. 1 2 "Gulf countries want Trump to end Iran war — but not yet, officials say". The Washington Post. 2026-03-26. ISSN   0190-8286 . Retrieved 2026-03-26.
  8. ↑ Sarovic, Alexander (11 March 2026). "(S+) Trump und Iran: Präsident siegessicher, Kriegsziel unbekannt" [(S+) Trump and Iran: President confident of victory, war aim unknown]. Der Spiegel (in German).
  9. ↑ Stein, Chris (3 March 2026). "US strikes on Iran triggered by Israel's plan to launch attack, Rubio says". The Guardian . ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 10 March 2026.
  10. ↑ "US House speaker: Israel's determination to strike Iran left Trump with a 'very difficult' decision". The Times of Israel . Associated Press. 3 March 2026. ISSN   0040-7909 . Retrieved 10 March 2026.
  11. ↑ Mazzetti, Mark; Barnes, Julian E.; Pager, Tyler; Wong, Edward; Schmitt, Eric; Bergman, Ronen (2 March 2026). "How Trump Decided to Go to War". The New York Times . ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 10 March 2026. The president said he understood the risks of an attack, but he conveyed to Mr. Carlson that he had no choice but to join a strike that Israel would launch.
  12. ↑ Hendrix, Steve; Hudson, John (8 March 2026). "For Israel's Netanyahu, Trump grants wishes, but his support carries risks". The Washington Post . ISSN   0190-8286 . Retrieved 10 March 2026. Netanyahu made clear his desire to attack Iran's ballistic missile program in the coming weeks. The prime minister said Israel would be willing to strike Iran with or without U.S. involvement, though he wanted Trump to green-light the operation, the people said.
    Netanyahu's determination to initiate hostilities led Trump to believe an Israeli attack was inevitable and that the best course of action was to involve U.S. military power to ensure its success, said two people familiar with this thinking.
  13. ↑ "Read Trump's full statement on Iran attacks". PBS News . Associated Press. 28 February 2026.
  14. ↑ Chavez, Paloma (9 March 2026). "GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham Brags 'We Are Going to Make a Ton of Money' on Iran War". People . Retrieved 10 March 2026. "Venezuela and Iran have 31% of the world's oil reserves. We're going to have a partnership with 31% of the known reserves. This is China's nightmare. This is a good investment," he said.
  15. ↑ Magid, Jacob (28 February 2026). "Trump indicates goal of Iran strikes is to topple regime; tells Iranian people: 'When we're finished, take over your government'". The Times of Israel . ISSN   0040-7909. Archived from the original on 28 February 2026. Retrieved 28 February 2026.
  16. ↑ Volz, Dustin; Ward, Alexander; Seligman, Lara (2 March 2026). "Trump's Case for War With Iran Faces Growing Scrutiny". The Wall Street Journal . Archived from the original on 6 March 2026. Retrieved 4 March 2026.
  17. ↑ Glasser, Susan (2 March 2026). "Can Donald Trump Win a War with Iran If He Can't Explain Why He Started It?" . The New Yorker . Retrieved 5 March 2026.
  18. ↑ Haake, Garrett; Leavitt, Karoline (4 March 2026). "White House says Trump's 'feeling based on fact' that Iran posed an imminent threat led to strikes. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump's decision to launch Operation Epic Fury was based on the 'cumulative effect' of threats and his feeling 'based on fact' that Iran posed an imminent and direct threat". Associated Press (Internet video). Retrieved 4 March 2026. [Total running time, 1:41 min.]
  19. 1 2 Jaffe, Greg; Dias, Elizabeth. "Hegseth Invokes Divine Purpose to Justify Military Might". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 2026-03-20.
  20. 1 2 3 4 Walsh, Joe; Watson, Kathryn; Reals, Tucker (2026-03-06). "Why is the U.S. attacking Iran? Here's what the Trump administration has said motivated the strikes". CBS. Retrieved 2026-03-21.
  21. ↑ "Golden Dome for America: Current and Future Missile Threats to the U.S. Homeland" (PDF). DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY.
  22. ↑ Jimison, Robert; Capitol, Megan MineiroReporting from the (2026-03-02). "Rubio Warns 'Hardest Hits' on Iran Lie Ahead and Offers Conflicting Rationales". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 2026-03-26.
  23. 1 2 3 Collins, Terry; Wire, Sarah D.; Meyer, Josh; Schermele, Zachary; Lewis, Ashley Pōkiʻi; Mudrová, Nikol; Hjelmgaard, Kim. "Why is the US at war with Iran? Answering key questions about the conflict". USA TODAY. Retrieved 2026-03-21.
  24. ↑ Magid, Jacob (2026-03-03). "Trump says he may have forced Israel's hand into war with Iranian 'lunatics'". The Times of Israel. ISSN   0040-7909 . Retrieved 2026-03-26.
  25. ↑ Oprisko, Robert L. (9 March 2026). "War of Distraction in Iran: Existential Anxiety and Strategic Failure". E-International Relations.
  26. ↑ Chivvis, Christopher S. (28 February 2026). "Trump wants to distract Americans from scandals at home with a diversionary war". The Guardian.
  27. ↑ Chidambaran, Jayakhosh (16 March 2026). "When War Arrives, Scandal Disappears: Epstein, Iran, And The Politics Of Distraction". Madras Courier.
  28. ↑ Vega, Alyssa (3 March 2026). "Trump's critics say attacking Iran 'won't make the Epstein files go away'". The Boston Globe . Archived from the original on 4 March 2026.
  29. ↑ Ostovar, Afshon (2024). Wars of Ambition: the United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East. New York, NY: Oxford University Press. p. 6. ISBN   978-0-19-094098-0. The simmering conflict between Iran and Israel, which is driven by the Islamic Republic's aim of destroying Israel as a Jewish entity, fuels the Palestinian crisis, and reverberates across the region and beyond, also features heavily and is the focus of the book's latter section. [...] Iran sought ... an end to America's dominance and to Israel's existence as a Jewish state. Those had been Iran's goals since the 1979 revolution ...
  30. ↑ Karsh, Efraim (2 November 2023). "The Israel-Iran conflict: between Washington and Beijing". Israel Affairs. 29 (6): 1075–1076. doi: 10.1080/13537121.2023.2269694 . ISSN   1353-7121. Since its establishment in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been openly and vociferously committed to the destruction of the State of Israel. To thwart this genocidal goal – especially the lethal threat of Tehran's dogged quest for nuclear weapons – Israel has heavily relied on the United States, its longstanding, foremost international ally.
  31. ↑ Takeyh, Ray (2006). "Iran, Israel and the Politics of Terrorism". Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. 48 (4): 83–96. doi:10.1080/00396330601062691. "Iran's hostility toward Israel is one of the most enduring and perplexing aspects of the Middle East conflict. Since the inception of the Islamic Republic, Iran’s clerical politicians have persistently denounced Israel and questioned its legitimacy, if not its right to exist. This is curious, as Iran has never fought a war with Israel and has no territorial disputes with the Jewish state. Indeed, Israel and Iran under the shah had established constructive relations between 1953 and 1979."
  32. ↑ Amaliya, L. R. (2025). "A cyber war of Iran-Israel: A geopolitical rivalry". International Conference on Strategic and Global Studies (ICSGS 2024). Atlantis Press. pp. 45–56. Israel considers Iran to be an "existential threat" after Iran significantly accelerated its nuclear programme, support militant and independence groups that threatened Israel, and call for the destruction of Israel.
  33. ↑ Freilich, Charles (2018). Israeli National Security: A New Strategy for an Era of Change. New York, NY: Oxford University Press. pp. 10, 37, 84. ISBN   978-0-19-060293-2. Iran, an extremist theocracy, seeks Israel's demise and will pose a potentially existential threat should it ultimately succeed in acquiring nuclear weapons. ... A nuclear Iran is widely thought in Israel to pose an existential threat.
  34. ↑ Gardner, Frank (16 March 2026). "Who wants what from the Iran war?". BBC News.
  35. ↑ Kingsley, Patrick (13 June 2025). "Striking the Heart of the Iranian Regime, Netanyahu Looks to His Legacy". The New York Times . Retrieved 1 April 2026. Mr. Netanyahu had planned a large-scale attack on Iran more than a decade ago, during a previous term as prime minister.
  36. ↑ Estrin, Daniel (25 June 2025). "Israel was once deterred from striking Iran. Now Netanyahu takes a victory lap". NPR. Retrieved 1 April 2026.
  37. ↑ Hearst, David (3 March 2026). "Israel's war of regional supremacy will not end with Iran". Middle East Eye.
  38. ↑ Magid, Pesha (6 March 2026). "Exclusive: Israel backing Iranian Kurdish plans to seize Iran border areas, sources say". Reuters.
  39. ↑ Burleigh, Michael (7 March 2026). "Encouraging separatism in Iran would be a bad strategy". Tomorrow's Affairs.
  40. ↑ Cordall, Simon Speakman. "Five problems the Iran war could solve for Israel's Netanyahu". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2026-03-21.
  41. ↑ Smith, Benedict; Bhojwani, Janhvi (1 March 2026). "How the US pulled off the assassination of the century". The Daily Telegraph . Archived from the original on 1 March 2026. Retrieved 1 March 2026.
  42. ↑ Birnbaum, Michael; Hudson, John; DeYoung, Karen; Allison, Natalie; Mekhennet, Souad (1 March 2026). "Push from Saudis, Israel helped move Trump to attack Iran". The Washington Post .
  43. ↑ Barnes, Julian E.; Pager, Tyler; Schmitt, Eric (2026-03-24). "Saudi Leader Is Said to Push Trump to Continue Iran War in Recent Calls". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 2026-03-26.
  44. ↑ "Saudi Arabia did not lobby US to strike Iran, denies Washington Post claim". Al Arabiya English . 2 March 2026.
  45. ↑ Goldman, Shalom (2026-03-12). "As Iran war expands, some conservative Christians interpret the conflict through biblical prophecies". The Conversation. Retrieved 2026-03-20.
  46. ↑ Braun, Sara (2026-03-03). "US troops were told war on Iran was 'all part of God's divine plan', watchdog alleges". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2026-03-20.
  47. 1 2 Shamim, Sarah. "Why are the US and Israel framing the ongoing conflict as a religious war?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2026-03-20.
  48. ↑ Christensen, Laerke (2026-03-03). "Investigating claim US troops were told Iran war is for 'Armageddon,' return of Jesus". Snopes. Retrieved 2026-03-20.
  49. ↑ "Religion In The War On Iran". NPR. 2026-03-11. Retrieved 2026-03-20.
  50. ↑ Mordowanec, Nick (2026-03-11). "Lawmakers Want DOD, Hegseth Investigated for Biblical 'Armageddon' Claims". Military.com. Retrieved 2026-03-20.
  51. ↑ Stanley, Tiffany (2026-03-20). "Pete Hegseth's Christian rhetoric draws renewed scrutiny after the US goes to war with Iran". AP News. Retrieved 2026-03-20.
  52. ↑ Leingang, Rachel (2026-03-26). "Hegseth prays at Pentagon service for 'overwhelming violence' against enemies". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2026-03-30.
  53. ↑ Carroll, Rory (2026-03-29). "Pope seems to rebuke Hegseth in remarks about leaders with 'hands full of blood'". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2026-03-30.
  54. ↑ Cohn, Norman. "Apocalypticism Explained – The Crusades". PBS. Retrieved 2026-03-26.
  55. ↑ "The Crusades". Jewish History. 2010-05-05. Retrieved 2026-03-26.
  56. ↑ Ramirez, Marc. "Faith and the Middle East: How religion could fuel a wider war". USA TODAY. Retrieved 2026-03-20.
  57. ↑ Khokhar, Riaz. "The US-Israel war on Iran is shaped by religion as much as strategy". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2026-03-20.
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