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Opinion polling for the 2018 Pakistani general election

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General elections were held in Pakistan on 25 July 2018. Since the previous general election, several pollsters conducted opinion polls at both the national and provincial levels.

Contents

Graphical summaries

Each coloured line specifies a political party and how strong their voting intention is nationwide for the National Assembly, based on a 3 point moving average. Parties which poll below 10% are not shown. .mw-parser-output .div-col{margin-top:0.3em;column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .div-col-small{font-size:90%}.mw-parser-output .div-col-rules{column-rule:1px solid #aaa}.mw-parser-output .div-col dl,.mw-parser-output .div-col ol,.mw-parser-output .div-col ul{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .div-col li,.mw-parser-output .div-col dd{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column} .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Pakistan Muslim League (N) Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Pakistan Peoples Party Opinion polling for the pakistani general election, 2018.png
Each coloured line specifies a political party and how strong their voting intention is nationwide for the National Assembly, based on a 3 point moving average. Parties which poll below 10% are not shown.
   Pakistan Muslim League (N)
   Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
   Pakistan Peoples Party

Nationwide voting intention

Voting intention polls conducted since 2013 for the National Assembly.

DatePollsterPublisherSample PML-N PTI PPP MQM-P MMA* ANP OthersLead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 ECP 53,123,73324.35%31.82%13.01%1.38%4.81%1.53%22.98%7.47%
12 Jul 2018SDPI [1] Herald 6,00425%29%20%N/a3%1%20%4%
04 Jul 2018IPOR [2] GSP3,73532%29%13%2%3%1%20%3%
06 Jun 2018Gallup Pakistan [3] Geo/Jang3,00026%25%16%N/a2%1%30%1%
28 May 2018Pulse Consultant [3] 3,16327%30%17%1%4%1%20%3%
May 2018 Gallup Pakistan [4] Self3,00038%25%15%22%13%
Mar 2018 Gallup Pakistan [5] WSJ 2,00036%24%17%23%12%
01 Nov 2017Gallup Pakistan [6] Geo/Jang3,00034%26%15%2%2%2%19%8%
25 Oct 2017Pulse Consultant [6] 3,24336%23%15%2%1%1%22%13%
24 Oct 2017IPOR [7] [8] GSP4,54038%27%17%3%1%1%14%11%
24 Apr 2017Gallup Pakistan [9] Self1,40036%25%16%2%3%2%16%11%
38%22%17%2%2%2%14%16%
27 Aug 2015SDPI [10] [11] 3,01427%33%14%1%2%1%20%6%
17 Jul 2014SDPI [12] Herald 1,35417%33%19%5%3%3%18%14%
11 May 2013 Election 2013 [13] ECP 45,388,40432.77%16.92%15.23%5.41%3.22%1.00%25.57%15.85%

*Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal is an alliance of Islamist political parties, formed in 2002 and dissolved after the 2008 elections. The restoration of this alliance occurred in December 2017. Polls conducted before the restoration show the sum for Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), the major political party in this alliance.

Province-wide voting intention

Voting intention polls conducted for each of the provinces. If a party has N/A listed in the poll, this indicates it is in the 'Others' section of the poll. If a certain poll result is bolded, this indicates that the option has achieved over 50% of the vote.

Punjab

DatePollsterLegislature type PML (N) PTI PPP OthersLead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 Provincial 31.8%33.7%5.4%29.1%1.9%
12 Jul 2018SDPI [1] unspecified40%33%7%20%7%
04 Jul 2018IPOR [2] National 50%31%5%14%19%
06 Jun 2018Gallup Pakistan [3] unspecified40%26%6%28%14%
02 Jun 2018IPOR [14] unspecified51%30%5%14%21%
28 May 2018Pulse Consultant [3] unspecified43%34%5%18%9%
01 Nov 2017Gallup Pakistan [6] unspecified50%31%5%14%19%
25 Oct 2017Pulse Consultant [6] unspecified55%20%7%18%35%
24 Oct 2017IPOR [8] National 58%23%6%13%35%
27 Aug 2015SDPI [10] [11] National 38%35%7%20%3%
17 Jul 2014SDPI [12] Provincial 25%43%11%21%18%
11 May 2013 Election 2013 [13] Provincial 40.8%17.8%8.8%32.6%23.0%

Sindh

DatePollsterLegislature type PPP MQM (P) GDA* PTI PML (N) OthersLead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 Provincial 38.4%7.7%14.9%14.2%2.4%22.4%23.5%
12 Jul 2018SDPI [1] unspecified54%2%10%14%4%16%40%
04 Jul 2018IPOR [2] National 35%7%5%18%10%25%17%
06 Jun 2018Gallup Pakistan [3] unspecified44%N/a9%4%43%35%
28 May 2018Pulse Consultant [3] unspecified45%5%N/a11%4%35%34%
01 Nov 2017Gallup Pakistan [6] unspecified44%10%N/a11%35%33%
25 Oct 2017Pulse Consultant [6] unspecified46%7%N/a10%N/a37%36%
24 Oct 2017IPOR [8] National 52%11%2%14%12%7%38%
27 Aug 2015SDPI [10] [11] National 41%5%N/a21%13%20%20%
17 July 2014SDPI [12] Provincial 50%20%5%25%30%
11 May 2013 Election 2013 [13] Provincial 32.6%25.5%11.6%6.2%6.0%18.1%7.1%

*The “Grand Democratic Alliance” is an alliance of political parties which was formed in late 2017. Polls before this show the sum for PML-F, the major party in this alliance before its formation

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

DatePollsterLegislature type PTI PML (N) MMA ANP OthersLead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 Provincial 32.3%9.9%17.1%12.2%28.5%15.2%
12 Jul 2018SDPI [1] unspecified43%10%11%6%30%31%
04 Jul 2018IPOR [2] National 45%12%6%8%29%33%
06 Jun 2018Gallup Pakistan [3] unspecified57%9%6%6%22%48%
28 May 2018Pulse Consultant [3] unspecified57%10%9%7%17%47%
01 Nov 2017Gallup Pakistan [6] unspecified47%10%43%37%
25 Oct 2017Pulse Consultant [6] unspecified53%13%34%40%
24 Oct 2017IPOR [8] National 62%10%1%5%22%52%
27 Aug 2015SDPI [10] [11] National 50%15%7%7%21%35%
17 Jul 2014SDPI [12] Provincial 40%N/a13%12%35%27%
11 May 2013 Election 2013 [13] Provincial 19.3%15.9%13.6%10.3%40.9%3.4%

Balochistan

DatePollsterLegislature type MMA PMAP PML (N) BNP NP PPP ANP PTI BAP Other'sLead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 Provincial 14.9%1.5%6.5%7.0%4.9%3.1%2.7%6.0%24.6%28.8%9.7%
12 Jul 2018SDPI [1] unspecified8%4%11%6%N/a15%N/a11%45%4%
04 Jul 2018IPOR [2] National 12%10%5%5%5%16%4%8%7%35%4%
06 Jun 2018Gallup Pakistan [3] unspecified23%9%2%14%11%20%4%5%12%3%
28 May 2018Pulse Consultant [3] unspecified11%4%2%6%5%36%3%12%7%14%24%
01 Nov 2017Gallup Pakistan [6] unspecified22%18%16%13%5%7%4%5%N/a10%4%
25 Oct 2017Pulse Consultant [6] unspecified5%0%39%8%0%5%7%21%15%18%
24 Oct 2017IPOR [8] National N/a6%15%8%1%9%2%33%26%18%
27 Aug 2015SDPI [10] [11] National 18%N/a5%N/a10%12%4%51%6%
17 July 2014SDPI [12] Provincial N/a23%22%N/a14%41%1%
11 May 2013 Election 2013 [13] Provincial 15.8%12.8%10.3%6.2%5.8%4.0%2.4%1.8%N/a40.9%3.0%

Constituency-wide voting intention

Colour key

  † Exit Poll

  ‡ By election result

NA-28 (Peshawar-II)

DatePollsterSample PTI PML (N) JI ANP PPP OthersLead
26 Oct 2017‡ By-election 2017 131,29834.8%18.9%5.4%18.9%10.0%12.1%15.9%
26 Oct 2017†CPDI [15] 1,74243%16%8%20%9%6%23%
19 Oct 2017IPOR [16] 1,31341%18%4%9%9%19%25%
11 May 2013 Election 2013 [13] 138,55539.8%14.7%11.9%11.4%8.7%13.5%25.1%

NA-63 (Rawalpindi-VII)

DatePollsterSample PTI Ind (Ch.) PML (N) PPP OthersLead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 215,66946.8%30.510.7%1.2%10.8%16.3%
28 Feb 2018IPOR [17] 59837%41%2%20%4%
11 May 2013 Election 2013 [13] 236,62446.6%43.2%6.3%3.9%3.4%

NA-125 (Lahore-III)

DatePollsterSample PML (N) PTI OthersLead
25 July 2018 Election 2018 250,25448.9%42.3%8.8%7.6%
17 September 2017‡ By-election 2017 125,12949.4%37.6%13.0%11.8%
17 September 2017†CPDI [18] 1,43346%40%14%6%
12 September 2017Pulse Consultant [19] 1,52062%23%15%39%
10 September 2017Gallup Pakistan [20] 1,50053%29%18%24%
06 September 2017IPOR [21] 2,19849%34%17%15%
11 May 2013 Election 2013 [13] 153,32860.5%34.6%4.9%25.9%

Polling on Politicians

Polling on the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif from office

DatePollsterSampleAgree
(Right)		Disagree
(Wrong)		Don’t KnowLead
05 April 2018Gallup Pakistan [22] 1,58653%40%7%13%
01 Nov 2017Gallup Pakistan [6] 3,00055%33%11%22%
54%31%15%23%
25 Oct 2017Pulse Consultant [6] 3,24348%31%21%17%
47%28%25%19%
24 Oct 2017GSP [8] 4,54065%33%2%32%
69%28%3%39%
28 July 2017 Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is disqualified from office by the Supreme Court

Nawaz Sharif vs Imran Khan

DatePollster Nawaz Sharif Imran Khan Don’t KnowLead
May 2018Gallup Pakistan [4] 50%45%5%5%
March 2018Gallup Pakistan [5] 49%46%5%3%
(undefined) 2017Gallup Pakistan [5] 51%39%10%12%
(undefined) 2016Gallup Pakistan [5] 57%37%6%20%
(undefined) 2015Gallup Pakistan [5] 59%35%6%24%

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 "Survey shows elections too close to call".
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 "National Survey of Current Political Survey in Pakistan" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2018-07-11. Retrieved 2018-07-11.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "Elections Exclusive: 3 poll results in! Who will you vote for Pakistan?". geo.tv.
  4. 1 2 "Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, Chairman Gallup Pakistan talks about the changing trends in public opinion and motivations of the voters with respect to the upcoming Election on Jirga with SaleemKhanSafi on Geo News". Gallup Pakistan. 21 May 2018.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 Shah, Saeed (25 April 2018). "Trial of Ex-Leader Rattles Pakistan's Democracy". [www.wsj.com].
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Elahi, Manzar; Haider, Sajjad (24 November 2017). "PML-N remains most popular party, Nawaz most favourite leader: survey". Geo TV .
  7. ↑ "Shehbaz favoured by Pakistan's majority to become premier: GSP survey". Dunya News . 28 October 2017.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "National Public Opinion Survey". Global Strategic Partners. 24 October 2017.
  9. ↑ "Gallup Public Pulse on Panama Leaks Verdict – 24 Hours after the Announcement". Gallup Pakistan. 24 April 2017.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 Suleri, Abid Q (2015). "Political Barometer, 2015" (PDF). Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 Sheikh, Ismail (28 October 2015). "PTI more popular than PML-N: survey". The Express Tribune . Retrieved 29 March 2018.
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 "State of the nation: public opinion of the government's first year in power". Dawn . Retrieved 29 March 2018.
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Party wise total vote bank" (PDF). Government of Pakistan. 27 May 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 October 2017.
  14. ↑ "A Quantative Study Report on the Political Continuum of Punjab" (PDF). ipor.com.pk. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 4, 2018.
  15. ↑ "Exit Polls in NA-4 (Peshawar – IV) By-Elections Give Clear Lead to PTI". Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives. 26 October 2017. Archived from the original on 24 December 2018. Retrieved 17 March 2018.
  16. ↑ "NA-04 Peshawar" (PDF). Institute for Public Opinion Research. 25 October 2017. Archived from the original (PDF) on 31 March 2018. Retrieved 30 March 2018.
  17. ↑ "A Quantitative Study Report on the Political Continuum of NA-53" (PDF). Institute for Public Opinion Research. 1 March 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 August 2018. Retrieved 30 March 2018.
  18. ↑ "Exit Polls in NA 120 Bye-Elections Show Slender Lead by PMLN NA-120 (Lahore III)". Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives. 17 September 2017. Archived from the original on 24 December 2018. Retrieved 26 May 2018.
  19. ↑ "Survey shows easy sailing for PML-N in NA-120 by-polls". The News PK. 12 September 2017.
  20. ↑ "NA-120 Pre-election Survey by Gallup Pakistan" (PDF). Gallup Pakistan. 17 September 2017.
  21. ↑ "71pc won't change their voting behaviour in NA-120: survey". The News PK. 6 September 2017.
  22. ↑ "Public Opinion on Supreme Court Ruling in Elections Reforms Case" (PDF). 5 April 2018.
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