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2026 Farrer by-election

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2026 Farrer by-election
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Division of Farrer (NSW) in the
House of Representatives
 
Liberal Party of Australia placeholder portrait.svg
IND
CandidateTBAMichelle Milthorpe
Party Liberal Independent
 
PHON Placeholder.png
Nationals Placeholder.png
CandidateDavid FarleyBrad Robertson
Party One Nation National
Division of Farrer 2025.svg
The Division of Farrer in New South Wales
Incumbent MP

Sussan Ley
Liberal



A by-election will be held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. The election follows the resignation of former opposition leader and former Liberal MP Sussan Ley. [1] [2]

Contents

It will be the first by-election since the 2025 federal election, and the fifth during Anthony Albanese's tenure as prime minister.

Key dates

Background

Resignation

A leadership spill of the Liberal party room was held on 13 February 2026, where Sussan Ley was defeated by Angus Taylor 34 votes to 17 for the leadership of the party. [4] Following the defeat, Ley fronted a press conference where she announced that she would resign from parliament "in the next couple of weeks". [5]

On 27 February 2026, Ley officially announced her retirement, with Speaker of the House Milton Dick announcing that he would consider a date for the pending by-election. [6]

Seat details

Farrer is located in the far south-western area of New South Wales and includes the towns of Albury, Corowa, Narrandera, Leeton, Griffith, Deniliquin, Hay, Balranald and Wentworth. A conservative seat, the seat has historically been a safe Liberal seat since Ley first won it in 2001, though the Liberal Party suffered a 10% swing against it on the two-candidate preferred vote against an independent candidate in 2025, and won the seat on a reduced margin of 56.19% to 43.81%. [7]

Two-party-preferred vote in Farrer, 1990–2025
Election 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025
  Labor 32.21%32.57%28.77%35.38%N/a30.18%38.83%35.49%32.57%29.47%30.17%33.65%37.11%
  Liberal N/aN/aN/aN/a50.14%69.82%61.17%64.51%67.43%70.53%69.83%66.35%62.89%
  National 67.79%67.43%71.23%64.62%49.86%N/aN/aN/aN/aN/aN/aN/aN/a
GovernmentALPALPLNPLNPLNPLNPALPALPLNPLNPLNPALPALP

2025 election results

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2025 Australian federal election in New South Wales § Farrer.[ edit ]
2025 Australian federal election: Farrer [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Sussan Ley 44,74343.41−8.85
Independent Michelle Milthorpe20,56719.96+19.96
Labor Glen Hyde15,55115.09−3.90
One Nation Emma Hicks6,8036.60+0.27
Greens Richard Hendrie5,0854.93−4.18
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Peter Sinclair3,5773.47−1.84
Trumpet of Patriots Tanya Hargraves2,4412.37+2.37
Family First Rebecca Scriven2,2182.15+2.15
People First David O'Reilly2,0782.02+2.02
Total formal votes103,06390.97−1.44
Informal votes10,2349.03+1.44
Turnout 113,29791.55+2.11
Notional two-party-preferred count
Liberal Sussan Ley 64,81262.89−3.46
Labor Glen Hyde38,25137.11+3.46
Two-candidate-preferred result
Liberal Sussan Ley 57,91656.19−10.16
Independent Michelle Milthorpe45,14743.81+43.81
Liberal hold 

Candidates

Media have characterised the by-election as a four-way race between the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and the independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe. [9] [10] [11]

PartyCandidateBackground
  One Nation David FarleyFormer CEO of AACo and irrigation specialist [12]
  Independent Michelle MilthorpeActivist and candidate for Farrer in 2025 [13] [14]
  Family First Rebecca ScrivenSchool worker and candidate for Farrer in 2025 [15]
  Greens TBA
  Liberal TBA
  National Brad Robertson Australian Army veteran and former commander, Albury branch chair [16] [17]
  People First TBA

Liberal

On 23 February, The Australian reported that the National Right faction gained control of candidate preselection. State Liberal MP Justin Clancy publicly expressed interest in running as the Liberals candidate; shortly after taking office as leader of the Liberal Party Angus Taylor called Clancy to discuss the by-election. [18] On 27 February, Justin Clancy ruled out contesting Farrer. Nominations for Liberal preselection in Farrer closed on 2 March. [19]

National

The National Party will contest Farrer for the first time since losing the seat in 2001, since Coalition rules forbid parties from running a candidate in a sitting Coalition MP's seat. [20] Media reported former Nationals senator Perin Davey, Albury mayor Kevin Mack, the party's branch chairman Brad Robertson and Murray Irrigation Ltd director Gabrielle Coupland as potential candidates. [18] [17] Marty Corboy, the Nationals candidate for neighbouring Indi in 2016, endorsed Perin Davey. [21] The Nationals selected Robertson as their candidate on 8 March. [16]

Brad Robertson is an Australian Army veteran and former commander. [16]

One Nation

On 13 February, party leader Pauline Hanson announced that One Nation will contest the by-election. [22] On 27 February, One Nation announced that David Farley, Leigh Wolki and Guy Cooper were the three candidates seeking pre-selection, following a process that assessed 80 candidates. [23] On 7 March, David Farley won preselection as One Nation candidate. [12] Hanson said it was the first time a branch had selected its own candidate. [24]

David Farley is a Narrandera-based agricultural businessman. He was formerly the CEO of Australian Agricultural Company. [24] He was recently elected chair of the lobby group Speak Up 4 Water. He became a member of One Nation before Sussan Ley resigned. [17]

Independent

Michelle Milthorpe was an independent candidate in the 2025 election and was supported by the community group Voices of Farrer and the Climate 200 fundraising organisation. [25] On 13 February, she announced her intention to contest the by-election. [13]

Milthorpe is a teacher from Jindera and an advocate for child abuse victims. [14]

Other political parties

Family First will run Rebecca Scriven, an independent Christian school worker who ran for the party in 2025. [15]

The Greens will contest the by-election. [26]

On 14 February, Gerard Rennick announced that People First will contest the by-election. [27]

On 23 February, Anthony Albanese said the Australian Labor Party would decide whether to contest the by-election "once Sussan Ley actually resigns." [28]

Not contesting

Helen Dalton, independent state MP for the electoral district of Murray, has been viewed as a potential challenger for the seat, with Dalton claiming that her mobile phone "has been burning up" since Ley's resignation. [29] Dalton has also been approached to run for the seat as a One Nation candidate. [30] However, when One Nation announced its list of candidates seeking pre-selection, Dalton was not on the list. [31] On 5 March, Dalton confirmed that she would not be a candidate. [32]

Darren De Bortoli, the managing director of De Bortoli Wines, said he was approached to run by multiple parties but declined all offers. [33]

Campaign

Michelle Milthorpe was joined by independent Senator for the Australian Capital Territory David Pocock in Berrigan on 5 March, and by Pocock and independent MP for neighbouring Indi Helen Haines in Albury on 6 March. [17]

The media resurfaced comments made by One Nation candidate David Farley in 2012 where he likened former Prime Minister Julia Gillard to a "non-productive old cow". Farrer and Pauline Hanson described the comments as tongue-in-cheek. [34]

Opinion polling

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB NAT Milthorpe
(IND)		 ALP ONP GRN OTH LIB Milthorpe
(IND)		 ONP
5–6 Mar 2026uComms [a] [35] 1,281±2.73%19.1%5.2%23.3%9.0%28.7%3.9%10.8% [b] N/aN/aN/a
27 Feb 2026 Sussan Ley resigns as an MP
5 Oct – 11 Nov 2025DemosAU(MRP)6,928±5%30%——16%22%7%25%52%48%
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 43.4%—20.0%15.1%6.6%4.9%10.0%56.2%43.8%—

Endorsements

Helen Dalton, independent state MP for the electoral district of Murray, will consider endorsing whichever candidate would push strong water reform and support a Royal Commission into the Murray-Darling Basin. [32]

How-to-vote cards

Political parties recommend to voters how they should preference candidates through "how-to-vote cards" distributed by campaign volunteers near polling places. Parties often make agreements between themselves about these recommendations. Preferences are expected to play a key role in the by-election. [36]

The Liberals will recommended preferences be directed to the Nationals second, and the Nationals will recommended preferences be directed to the Liberals second. On 5 March, Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg publicly urged his party to preference One Nation last. [37]

Michelle Milthorpe will not ask voters to direct preferences, just as she did not at the last election. [18]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Commissioned by The Australia Institute.
  2. ↑ 2.2% for other parties and 8.6% undecided. [35]

References

  1. ↑ Briggs, Casey (13 February 2026). "Ley leaves Taylor an immediate electoral test with Farrer by-election". ABC News. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
  2. ↑ Raue, Ben (13 February 2026). "Farrer by-election coming soon". The Tally Room. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
  3. ↑ Dick, Milton. "House of Representatives [Part 2]". youtube.com. Parliament of Australia . Retrieved 5 March 2026.
  4. ↑ Michelle Grattan (13 February 2026). "Angus Taylor defeats Sussan Ley by hefty margin of 34–17 as Liberal leader". The Conversation. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026.
  5. ↑ Boscaini, Joshua; Gould, Courtney; Crowley, Tom. "Federal politics live: Angus Taylor overwhelmingly wins Liberal leadership, Sussan Ley to quit politics, setting up by-election". ABC News. Archived from the original on 12 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
  6. ↑ "Farrer by-election". aph.gov.au. Australian Parliament House. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026. Retrieved 27 February 2026.
  7. ↑ "Farrer, NSW". aec.gov.au. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026.
  8. ↑ "Farrer, NSW". Australian Electoral Commission. 3 May 2025. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
  9. ↑ Grattan, Michelle (5 March 2026). "Farrer byelection will be on May 9". The Conversation. The main contenders for the seat with be the Liberal Party, the Nationals, One Nation and at least one high-profile independent, Michelle Milthorpe.
  10. ↑ de Silva, Zac; Brown, Andrew (5 March 2026). "Date locked in for Liberals' crucial by-election test". Australian Associated Press. A four-way race is expected to choose Ms Ley's replacement, with the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and Climate 200-backed independent Michelle Milthorpe planning to run.
  11. ↑ "Four-way battle begins for Farrer by-election". Seven News. The race will pit One Nation against the Liberals, Nationals and a Climate 200 independent, with Labor not fielding a candidate.
  12. 1 2 Newling, Nick (7 March 2026). "One Nation selects byelection candidate as Hanson declares Albanese is scared to run". Brisbane Times. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026. Retrieved 7 March 2026.
  13. 1 2 "Independent Michelle Milthorpe to contests Farrer". Back Country Bulletin. 13 February 2026. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026. Retrieved 14 February 2026.
  14. 1 2 Jacques, Oliver (5 October 2024). "'We deserve more': advocate for child abuse victims to run for seat of Farrer". Region Riverina. Archived from the original on 5 October 2024. Retrieved 14 February 2026.
  15. 1 2 "Family First announces local mum of four Rebecca Scriven as candidate for Farrer" (Press release). Family First Party. 13 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
  16. 1 2 3 Basta, Jostina; Scully, Jess; McCutcheon, Jen (8 March 2026). "Nationals select former military commander Brad Robertson to contest Farrer". ABC News. Retrieved 8 March 2026.
  17. 1 2 3 4 Vidal, Paulina (3 March 2026). "Farrer by-election heats up". Southern Riverina News.
  18. 1 2 3 "Teal's boost for One Nation in Sussan Ley's seat". The Australian. 16 February 2026.
  19. ↑ Johnston, David (27 February 2026). "Albury MP Justin Clancy rules out contesting federal seat of Farrer". The Weekly Times.
  20. ↑ "The Coalition to face a messy by-election in Sussan Ley's seat of Farrer". Antony Green's Election Blog. 13 February 2026. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
  21. ↑ Johnston, David (25 February 2026). "Six candidates in contention for One Nation's Farrer challenge". The Weekly Times.
  22. ↑ Hanson, Pauline [@PaulineHansonOz] (13 February 2026). "I want to wish Sussan Ley all the best in her future outside of politics" (Tweet). Retrieved 13 February 2026– via X (formerly Twitter).
  23. ↑ "One Nation reveals three-way contest for Farrer candidacy". Pauline Hanson's One Nation. 27 February 2026. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026. Retrieved 27 February 2026.
  24. 1 2 Vidal, Paulina (7 March 2026). "One Nation selects agricultural businessman David Farley to contest Farrer by-election in NSW". ABC News.
  25. ↑ "TEAL DEAL: Billionaire's son joins fight to turn Farrer a new shade of blue". The Border Mail . 30 January 2025. Archived from the original on 30 January 2025. Retrieved 14 February 2026.
  26. ↑ Cohn, Amanda [@DrAmandaCohn] (13 February 2026). "Albury-Wodonga desperately needs a new hospital on a new site. A by-election in Farrer will shine the national spotlight on our region. This is a huge opportunity, and the Greens are ready" (Tweet). Retrieved 13 February 2026– via X (formerly Twitter).
  27. ↑ Rennick, Gerard [@RennickGBR] (14 February 2026). "People First is still here and we are pleased to announce we are running a candidate in the seat of Farrer. Nominations are now open" (Tweet). Retrieved 16 February 2026– via X (formerly Twitter).
  28. ↑ Coorey, Phillip (23 February 2026). "PM taunts Coalition as Labor flirts with running in Farrer byelection". Australian Financial Review. Archived from the original on 23 February 2026. Retrieved 23 February 2026.
  29. ↑ "Helen Dalton Considers Federal Leap: "My Mobile Has Been Burning Up"". Back Country Bulletin. 13 February 2026. Archived from the original on 7 March 2026. Retrieved 13 February 2026.
  30. ↑ Rowley, Jarryd (16 February 2026). "Dalton approached by One Nation to run for Sussan Ley's federal seat". Region Riverina. Archived from the original on 16 February 2026. Retrieved 16 February 2026.
  31. ↑ @6NewsAU (27 February 2026). "One Nation has announced three candidates – David Farley, Leigh Wolki and Guy Cooper – who will contest their preselection for the Farrer by-election Helen Dalton, who was approached by ONP, is not running for preselection amid rumours of an independent candidacy" (Tweet) – via X (formerly Twitter).
  32. 1 2 "Why MP won't run for Ley's old seat after talks with One Nation" . Herald Sun. 5 March 2026. Retrieved 5 March 2026.
  33. ↑ Jacques, Oliver (28 February 2026). "Independent favoured to win Farrer by-election by bookies as Liberal MP confirms he won't run". Region Riverina.
  34. ↑ McIlroy, Tom; Dhanji, Krishani (8 March 2026). "One Nation candidate contesting Sussan Ley's seat likened Julia Gillard to 'non-productive old cow'". The Guardian.
  35. 1 2 "Poll Report" (PDF). The Australia Institute. 9 March 2026. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 March 2026. Retrieved 10 March 2026.
  36. ↑ "Campaign Starts". Deniliquin Pastoral Times. 23 February 2026.
  37. ↑ Quail, Jack (5 March 2026). "Farrer by-election set for May 9 in test for Angus Taylor, Pauline Hanson". The Australian. On Thursday, outspoken Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg urged his party to preference One Nation last at Farrer, arguing the Liberals decision to relegate Senator Hanson's outfit to the bottom of its how-to-vote-cards in previous polls was "pretty sound".
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